Our top tipster Andrew Mount previews the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow on Sunday (27th Dec), as he once again takes a further look into the key stats and trends for this famous 3m 6f contest, along with a breakdown of runners chances in this Grade 3 steeplechase. Check out his thoughts on what is expected to be an exciting contest below and get a **RISK FREE £10 BET AT TOTE**
Welsh National Key Trends
Age:
This is something of a mixed bag, with winners aged from six right through to 13. Eight-year-olds (four from 42) have returned a small profit (+£7.00) to a £1 level stake at SP.
Recent run(s):
Those who had raced within the past six weeks won nine of the last ten renewals. Horses absent for longer than this were just one from 59. All of the last ten winners had raced at least twice in the previous three months. Those who had raced once (0-75) or not at all (0-10) had a poor record.
Prep Run:
Nine of the last ten winners prepped at either Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury or Sandown. Those who prepped at other tracks were just one from one from 111. The last ten winners all finished in the top six last time out.
Trainer:
Paul Nicholls (0-14), David Pipe (0-13), Evan Williams (0-12) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-11) have thrown plenty of darts at this race without success in the past ten years. Kerry Lee and her father Richard have won three times (from 11 runners combined), Colin Tizzard twice (from 13 runners).
Running Style:
Six winners (from 79 runners) led or raced prominently, four came from off the pace (from a much bigger sample of 112 runners).
Main Contenders
SECRET REPRIEVE won the Welsh Grand National Trial over 2m7.5f here in early December, sauntering home by 12 lengths under a patient ride. He’s now two from two at Chepstow, compared to zero from six elsewhere. The six-year-old heads the betting at around the 4-1 mark and, while he should run well, looks short enough now running over a marathon trip for the first time.
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SPRINGFIELD FOX unseated when only 7-1 for the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham festival on his most recent chase start and ran respectably over hurdles here on his return to action. His chase record – including point-to-point form – on officially soft or heavy going stands at 1111U (4-5) and he should give a good account. His sole chase outing at this venue saw him score by 12 lengths under an aggressive ride.
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Colin Tizzard has had a stop/start season and CHRISTMAS IN APRIL could only finish a 13-length runner-up when 11-4 favourite for the Southern National at Fontwell last time. He’s two from three over 3m4f or further but it’s hard to be confident about anything form this yard at present.
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TRUCKERS LODGE, winner of the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on his final start last term, was travelling strongly prior to unseating at Kelso on his comeback in October. His course form reads 12412 (2-5) but he’s only had one completed start since finishing second in this race last year.
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YALA ENKI, a stablemate of Truckers Lodge, ran a fine race on his comeback at Cheltenham when short-headed by Ramses De Teillee over the extended 3m3f trip. He fell at the first in the Becher Chase next time but has finished third in the last two renewals and has minor place claims once more.
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RAMSES DE TEILLEE was tailed off in the Becher Chase last time but the return to conventional fences will suit. His course record – hurdles and fences combined – reads 21112 (3-5), with the latest runner-up effort coming in this race in 2018.
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THE TWO AMIGOS shaped as though the return to a longer trip were needed when runner-up to Secret Reprieve here last time. He’s one of multiple pace angles and has yet to win in a field of more than eight runners since his point-to-point days.
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DOMINATEUR likes it here, recording form figures of 2311 (2-4). The big field is a concern – his four wins have come in single-figure line-ups – and his two big-field chase runs have resulted in a fall and a 46-length seventh of 14 behind Truckers Lodge in the Midlands Grand National.
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PRIME VENTURE, a stablemate of Secret Reprieve, has respectable course figures of 22344 (0-5) but has never won in field of more than nine runners.
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CLOUDY GLEN jumped markedly out to the left when disappointing at right-handed Sandown last time but is not sure to appreciate the big field. His chase record in fields of eight or more runners stands at 4FR2F6 (0-6).
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LORD DU MESNIL progressed rapidly last season, scoring off a handicap mark of 122 in November and getting shoved up to 156 thanks to placed efforts in Graded company. He’s had excuses over inadequate trips this term and holds each-way claims now returned to 3m+.
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ALMINAR was pulled up at Haydock last time on his first start following wind surgery but had finished a respectable third of 13 over 3m1f at Cheltenham the time before and he likes it here, winning on heavy ground in January having, finished third at 14-1 inn the same race 12 months earlier. This race might be a little ambitious but we’re approaching the time of year when he peaks and, if that last run were needed after the wind operation, he could surprise.
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Big Race Verdict
Numerous chances as you’d expect for a race of this nature. Ramses De Teillee, yet to finish out of the first two in five runs here, has place claims, as does Yala Enki. Secret Reprieve and Spring Fox are also difficult to dismiss but make limited appeal at the current odds. However, LORD DU MESNIL looks vert interesting now that he has a proper stamina test for the first time since his runner-up effort at last season’s Cheltenham festival. Those looking for one at a monster price could do worse than course winner Alminar, who might have needed his latest outing after wind surgery.
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