Andrew Mount takes us through a trio of top class races at Cheltenham on Saturday, includng the Cotswold Chase,Cleeve Hurdle and SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle looking at the key stats and trends that should be focused on as he pinpoints the likely winners in each.
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2.25pm – Paddy Power “45 Sleeps To Cheltenham” Cotswold Chase (Grade 2)
KEY STATS
AGE: All of the last ten winners were aged from seven to ten.
RECENT FORM last-time out winners were six from 22 for a profit of £13.88.
RUNNING STYLE: nine of the ten winners led (x4) or raced prominently (x5). Hold-up horses were just one from 30.
PREP RUN: those who ran in a Grade 1 last time out were just one from 20.
THE MAIN CONTENDERS
BRISTOL DE MAI is brilliant at Haydock but his only other win away from that venue in the past five years came at Wetherby, another flat left-handed track. He was placed in the 2019 Gold Cup but his full Cheltenham record of 273329 (0-6) suggests he’ll find one or two too good.
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SANTINI will appreciate the switch from Kempton where he was only fifth in the King George last time. HIs course record reads 13212 (2-5), with the latest defeat by a neck in last season’s Gold Cup. His two runs here below Grade 1 resulted in victory at this meeting – the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle in 2018 and this race 12 months ago. He looks best of those near the head of the market.
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The Colin Tizzard yard remains under a cloud, with no winners from 31 runners in January at the time of writing. NATIVE RIVER is hard to fancy for that reason.
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SAINT CALVADOS hails from another out of form yard, that of Harry Whittington. Over-sanitisation was blamed for the poor early-season form but things haven’t got much better since the problem was diagnosed, with no winners from 34 runners since the start of December. Saint Calvados , fourth to Frodon in the King George on his first attempt at three miles, may yet stay this sort of trip but is hard to recommend given the yard’s form.
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THE CONDITIONAL is very consistent, recording form figures of 3124132 (2-7) for David Bridgwater, often in big handicaps. HIs yard won this with The Giant Bolster in 2014 and he should run his usual solid race.
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11-year-old YALA ENKI showed a great attitude to get back up after a bad mistake at Taunton last week but this will be his third race in quick succession and it’s almost three years since he won above Class 2 level.
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LAKE VIEW LAD, another 11-year-old, accounted for Santini at Aintree on last month’s reappearance, taking his record from December to February to F116132111331 (7-13) for a profit of £32.40 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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VERDICT: With doubts over the track for Bristol De Mai and the stable form for Native River, it’s tempting to side with last year’s winner Santini. However, those dropping down from Grade 1 level don’t have the greatest record, so it could pay to have a small interest on THE CONDITIONAL, whose yard has won this before. Lake View Lad also has possibilities despite being older than the typical winner.
3.35pm – Paddy Power Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
KEY STATS
AGE: those aged 10+ are just one from 30 this century.
RUNNING STYLE: Only one winner this century made all, four were prominent and 15 came from off the pace.
THE MAIN CONTENDERS
PAISLEY PARK, bidding for a hat-trick in this race, looked back to his brilliant best when wearing down Thyme Hill to land the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot last time. He’ll be tough to beat again.
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ITCHY FEET steps up in trip and reverts to hurdles after finishing second of three to subsequent scorer Dashel Drasher in a 2m5f chase at Ascot. William Hill radio’s paddock judge Ken Pitterson has long said that he doesn’t have the size and scope for chasing, despite a Grade 1 victory over the larger obstacles in novice company, and he’s placed in both completed course outings – finishing second in a Grade 2 hurdle and third in the 2019 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (both on the Old Course). Olly Murphy is seven from 35 with runners switching from fences to hurdles, though you’d have made a loss by backing them blind (-£2.75). However, only three were running in Class 1 or Class 2 races and they produced two winners, Thomas Darby (8-1) and Brewin’Upastorm (3-1). The other was unplaced at 20-1.
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HONEST VIC had no answer to Thyme Hill in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last time when bidding to follow up his reappearance win at the October meeting here. However, he’s recorded form figures of 65455 (0-5) when attempting to back up a win and could well bounce back here. Since fitted with headgear his record following a defeat reads R5111 (3-5).
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MAIN FACT won nine on the bounce prior to his 53-length defeat to Paisley Park in the Long Walk. Perhaps he did too much too soon that day but it was still a disappointing effort. The hope for his supporters is that the right-handed track was to blame, as his record right-handed in Britain stands at 037 (0-3).
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I backed THIRD WIND at a big price in the Long Walk at Ascot where he was far from disgraced in fifth place, doing third best of those to race up with the pace. His best efforts have come when ridden more patiently and a placed effort could be on the cards if reverting to such tactics.
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VERDICT: hard to get away from the revitalised Paisley Park but ITCHY FEET is a fascinating contender now back over hurdles and he could find the required improvement now attempting three miles for the first time. Honest Vic and Third Wind also have place claims.
4.10pm – 2m1f SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle
This Class 2 handicap hurdle rarely gets much attention in the build up to Trials Day but there are several horses that stand out among the 15 declared at the four-day stage…
NIGHT EDITION finished well behind Not So Sleepy when a 33-1 shot in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle company at Ascot on last month’s reappearance and will appreciate the drop in class. He improved markedly for his reappearance outing last term, finishing fourth at Taunton at the end of December before his fine 22-1 second in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at this meeting, doing really well to get within one length of the winner after being ridden patiently on a track that was strongly favouring pace. He progressed from that run to score in maiden hurdle company at Ludlow and signed off with a 16-1 second of 22 in the Fred Winter.
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CABOT CLIFFS went into the tracker after his eight-length third to Duffle Coat in Listed company at Wetherby in late October, doing well to place after racing on the inside of the track for much of the race where the ground was slowest. He probably did too much too soon when only fourth to the same rival in Grade 2 company here next time and a mark of 125 underestimates his ability. It’s rare for a four-year-old to contest this race but two who tried in the past ten years both placed, Hinterland doing best of the hold-up horses when third in 2012 and a certain Frodon filling the same position when 13-2 for the 2016 renewal.
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Long-suffering readers of my daily column may remember that I played the Martin Keighley and Chris Gordon card in this race 12 months ago, backing both of their runners. Back On The Lash landed a gamble in the race (13-2 from 14-1) for the former while the Gordon runner Shut The Box (12-1 from 16-1) finished well beaten. Both are represented this time around, Keighley with WITNESS PROTECTION and Gordon with HIGHWAY ONE O TWO. Witness Protection’s trainer is two from three in this race in the past ten years and the eight-year-old arrives here in top form, having finished 1st, 2nd by a head and 1st in his three previous runs this term. Highway One O Two’s handler is two from five in this race, with one of the beaten horses finishing a close-up fourth at 25-1 and another falling (7-1). The six-year-old was in fine form last winter, winning three from three over hurdles including the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton. He failed to complete in two runs over fences in November and probably needed the run when a distant sixth of nine on his return to hurdles at Sandown last time, failing to adopt his usual forcing tactics.
VERDICT: Cabot Cliffs will be a major contender if swerving the Grade 2 opener to run here but the good record of Martin Keighley and Chris Gordon suggests we should give serious consideration to WITNESS PROTECTION(also entered in the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle) and Highway One O Two. David Pipe’s Night Edition is also respected.
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