The first of the Group 3 contests at Ascot on Saturday is the Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 1m4f, a race where the winner receives £45,000. It’s also a race that has been won by a couple of quality horses recently – Hamish who is a stalwart in these types of contest and a multiple Group 1 winner, as well as Hukum who has since gone on to Group 1 glory and was well fancied for this years Arc.
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw William Haggas’s HAMISH run out a comfortable winner – Can the winner this year win as comfortable as he did?
Key Trends
- 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older.
- 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 4 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Cumberland Lodge Stakes, 9 of the last 12 winners had their last run within the last 49 days.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Ascot, 5 of the lats 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Ascot.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 12 furlongs, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 12 furlongs.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 105+.
- 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
2. Al Aasy
(William Haggas/Jim Crowley)
A horse that promised to be a little better than he was a year or so back, he was a Group 3 winner as a 3YO, before going on to win two more at that level as a 4YO. He was then well fancied for the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom in June 2021, when sent off the short priced market leader, but was beaten by Pyledriver after they duelled as they headed towards the line. He was rated as high as 120 then (now rated 113), but was then beaten once again that season in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket, and was chasing to get his head in front from there onwards for the rest of the season.
He was only seen once in 2022, which was a Listed victory at Ascot, where he beat the field with ease before being off the track for 420 days. He finished last on his first start of this season, but that was ultimately down to race fitness, and he hasn’t really looked back since. That run clearly got him right, as he then landed back to back black type contests at Newbury and Haydock, before going on to finish a close 2nd in a Group 3 at Leopardstown last time, and was probably a touch unlucky as he was running on well to the line.
He does have to be ridden a certain way, switched off at the back and pounce late, as he always seems to be on the bridle and doesn’t like to be off it, so there is a slight risk attached when backing him. But, he is probably the classiest in the race raw ability wise, he just needs it all to fall for him nicely.
1. Israr
(John & Thady Gosden/Benoit De La Sayette)
It comes as a little bit of a shock that the Gosdens are yet to win this race in the past, as they (namely John Gosden) have won everything there is to win in the world of racing. They have presented young Benoit De La Sayette with an excellent chance to land his first Group contest as a jockey, and I think his ride here has a very good chance of doing so.
Israr is the highest rated in the field with the current mark of 115, but he has to give most of these a little weight. However, unlike most of these he is on an upward curve, having his best season to date, operating at his highest rating of 115. Second in a Group 3 and Listed contest to start the season, he won his best race to date by landing the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket in July, with Adayar 4 lengths in behind. He was then put away for 58 days before heading to the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton, usually a trial for the Arc, so I would imagine that was in the forefront of connections minds. But, unfortunately he was well beaten into 6th of 7 runners that day, with no real explanation as to why he ran poorly. Ultimately it was his first run on the all-weather, so that could have been an explanation as to why.
I would put a line through that run last time, as he will be fresher for this, with conditions in his favour. I think he does have a decent chance heading into this contest on Saturday.
3. Al Qareem
(Karl Burke/Clifford Lee)
Although Karl Burke’s gelding has some winning form on good ground in the past, I would imagine Al Qareem would appreciate a little bit of cut in the ground to put his best foot forward. He had to give a nice filly who has been running in the Oaks, plenty of weight at Chester last time, where he won the Listed Tote Stand Cup Stakes. That form might have a few question marks however, as the filly in 2nd does look the sort that doesn’t put it all in when racing, so he might have been handed the race. But at the end of the day, he battled on nicely when looked beat, despite giving the runner up almost a stone in weight.
A Group 2 winner at Longchamp in the past, I think his best performances have come over slightly further than this in worse conditions, so he does have stamina in the locker. But the manner he won last time suggests he deserves another shot in Group company at this trip. However, the good ground expected could be a little issue, as other horses might prefer it more to him. He arrives into this race off the back of a decent performance last time, so he is capable of making it back to back wins.
4. Claymore
(Jane Chapple-Hyam/Neil Callan)
One of the more lightly raced runners in the field for the Chapple-Hyam team, he arrives into this race coming off a 135 day plus break. He was a nice winner on his only 2YO start when winning by 4 lengths over 7 furlongs at Newmarket in October 2021, looking like a real nice type heading forward. Following that, he won the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2022. He’s been lightly raced since then, coming 4th of 5 runners in a Group 2 at York in July 2022, before going on to come last of the field in his latest run, behind Hukum in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. He was reported to have bled from the nose that day by the vet in the race report, which could be a concern for future runs, but he has had a break recently to give him chance to recover.
There is a buzz at home for his re-appearance, and all being well he could bounce back to form, at a venue where his best career run has been so far. Let’s just hope all is ok with him now, and he can bounce back to some sort of form at Ascot on Saturday.
Big-Race Verdict
This is the exact sort of race Al Aasy could land a blow in, being a relatively small field on decent conditions, but I feel his market rival could be the one to lower his colours here. ISRAR is the one I would be siding with at the prices. Draw a line through his last effort at Kempton as it was on a surface that might not have suited, and his run before that in the Group 2 where he easily beat Adayar is probably the best piece of form on offer in the race, earning him the career high rating of 115. Al Aasy has the reputation of a bit of a bridle merchant, who doesn’t find much when push comes to shove, so it is safe to side with Israr who is classy and doesn’t really have any flaws.
Claymore is very unexposed and could easily be good enough to mix it up with these, providing all is well since his break. He isn’t too far behind most of these in ratings and could easily improve past them, hopefully all being well we get to see him reach his full potential very soon.
SELECTION: Israr – (Win – 7/2 generally) & Claymore (E/W – 11/1 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 2pm Friday 6th October*
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