The Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes is the feature contest of the weekend, and is one of the feature races for the whole flat racing calendar, especially out of all the 2yo contests. It is usually won by a very nice 2yo, before they go on to test their colours in potential classics as a 3yo next season and beyond. Previous winners of the race include Rock Of Gibraltar, Frankel, Too Darn Hot and Pinatubo, to just name a few stars who have shone in the past. And most recently Chaldean, who went onto 2000 Guineas glory this season for Frankie Dettori after winning the Dewhurst a year ago.
GG editor Jake Russell (@JakeRuss1000) previews the key runners for this years race, identifying the key trends, before giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win the feature Group 1 contest.
Last year’s renewal saw Andrew Balding’s joint-favourite CHALDEAN hold off the late challenge of Royal Scotsman to land the Group 1, as jockey Frankie Dettori landed a third win from the last five renewals:
Key Trends
- 8 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 9 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Dewhurst Stakes, 10 of the last 12 winners had their last run within the last 34 days.
- 3 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket, 2 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newmarket.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 7 furlongs, 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 7 furlongs.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous flat runs, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins.
- 6 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 107 or higher (6 of the last 12 winners didn’t have a rating)
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 wins that season.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
3. City Of Troy
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
Probably the 2yo with the biggest hype surrounding him heading into next year with all the classics, with many stating he could be the next big thing in flat racing. His trainer Aidan O’Brien has stated he’s an unusual horse but could quite easily be a new superstar for the lads and Ballydoyle. City Of Troy has just had the two career starts so far, and it could have been three but he was declared a non-runner in the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at The Curragh last month due to the going. Aidan has specified he will run no matter what the ground will be this weekend, with this being penned in as his last run as a 2yo, so its great to see him back on the racecourse again. He was a 2 and a half length winner on debut at the Curragh, a few eyes were on him then, but it was his second ever run that really put him at the forefront of most peoples minds. He lined up in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket next, being easy to back throughout the day, before being well fancied in the market just before the off, so I’m assuming connections were quite confident. And he duly obliged on that market support with a scintillating performance to win going away by 6 and a half lengths, with Haatem in 2nd that day. That was an awesome performance, and providing 91 day break doesn’t cause any issues and he’s fit and ready to go, he could put in a superstar performance here.
7. Iberian
(Charlie Hills/Tom Marquand)
The Charlie Hills has been a real surprise package this season so far, and does look to be a very nice type going forward. The very well bred son of Lope De Vega was a Novice winner at Newbury on his debut, beating his rivals by a length and three quarters, however the form in behind is a little bit suspect with the others running, and not running so well. He did however step forward on that showing when finishing runner-up to Haatem in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, which was just his 2nd ever career run, whereas it was Haatem’s 6th career run. And Iberian was only beaten by a length on the day, keeping on very well inside the final furlong or so, so ran with so much credit on just his 2nd ever career run. The Charlie Hills runner improved tremendously on that performance at Goodwood when claiming the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last month, and the form has since been franked by the third who was Rosallion. Who has since landed the Group 1 Lagardere on Arc day in very taking fashion, getting connections very excited for his 3yo season next time out. His trainer has stated he might be an even better horse on the sounder surface, however the race he won at Doncaster was officially declared as soft, and he is bred to like a bit of cut in the ground. So keep an eye on that heading into the race this weekend.
1. Alyanaabi
(Owen Burrows/Jim Crowley)
I have stated many times in my write-ups that trainer Owen Burrows is an excellent trainer, and he can get his horses to win Group 1’s. Although he may not be know for it with 2yo’s, he is excellent at getting his horses to improve the more they race. And his mount Alyanaabi is a colt by previous Dewhurst winner Too Darn Hot, with his dam being an unraced half-sister to the high-class 1,000 Guineas winner Ghanaati. Making him very well bred and certainly looks one for the Guineas next season if all goes well in the Dewhurst this weekend. He landed a Salisbury novice on his debut in June, and probably shaped a little better than the result suggested when fourth in a Listed race at Ascot, won by Rosallian. He had to wait to make his challenge from the rear of the field, which is a venue where everything needs to fall right for horses at Ascot. So you can almost draw a line through that run as he was a shade unlucky not to finish closer. Those waiting at the rear of the field tactics were again shown in his next run, the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes over this course and distance last time out, and he picked up in very nice fashion to run out a narrow winner of the contest. He would definitely benefit from this becoming a stamina test, and certainly does look like one who can offer more later on in his career, especially over the long distances. He is very well bred, and his sire Too Darn Hot is doing very well with his progeny at this stage. He is the one to keep an eye on going forward later on in his racing career, as it would surprise me if we she him flourish as an older horse.
8. Indian Run
(Eve Johnson Houghton/Danny Tudhope)
It’s always nice to see the “smaller” yards arrive here with a horse who is in a real rich vein of form, and although the ceiling for Eve Johnson Houghton’s son of Sioux Nation probably isn’t as high as some of these because of breeding, he does genuinely deserve to be here. Third at Newbury on his debut behind Stralust, he then backed that decent debut effort by winning a Novice contest at Ascot beating Kingdom Of Riches by a length and a half, with the 2nd and 3rd winning since they last met. Now although the form in behind is a winning one, it isn’t spectacular, however it was Indian Runs next performance that really caught my eye. Lining up in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York where he beat Ballymount Boy by a length and a half, going away as they headed to the line. The form of that race hasn’t exactly been franked yet, as the three in behind have been beaten since, but he did win in very cosy fashion and put in a racing post rating of 105, which isn’t to far off the main runners in this field (Aside from City Of Troy). That performance last time was better than I originally thought just purely on the manner that he won the race, it was a very cosy victory in the end, with some nice types in behind. Connections have saved him for this race, and the better ground will definitely be beneficial for him, so it might be a case that he might not run should it be deemed to soft for connections. But he is a nice type to keep an eye on going forward, certainly for connections.
2. Array
(Andrew Balding/James Doyle)
The Andrew Balding son of No Nay Never is one of the more experienced runners in this field, so it could mean a lesser exposed horse might improve past him in this, however he has ran very well in all of his 5 runs so far, with 2 wins to his name. The connections of last years winner Andrew Balding and Juddmonte run Array in this, who is yet to be sent off at odds greater than 7/4 in his five runs so far in his career. Where he has won twice and placed on his other three runs, which includes a third in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton last month, only beaten by three quarters of a length. He returned to winning ways in the 6 furlong Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury last time, with Mister Sketch a half a length 2nd that day. He kept on very well for pressure that day to land his best race to date, but the form in the race could be a little questionable. He has only been racing at 6 furlongs in all five of his races so far, so needs to show the 7 furlongs is to suit, but the manner he won last time might suggest he will be all ok for this. He is a little more exposed than most of these so needs to take a real step forward from last time, but he hails from last years winning connections who have paid the £35,000 to supplement him for this race.
Big-Race Verdict
Realistically all eyes will be on the Aidan O’Brien horse City Of Troy, and they probably deserve to be as he was so impressive last time out at Newmarket. But I don’t think it will be cut and dry for him, as we have seen before some Ballydoyle horses can bomb out at Newmarket. So with that it might be worth looking at one at a decent price to either take him on with, or look to finish in the placings as there will hopefully be 8 runners on the day. With that in mind Indian Run is one that really peaks my interests. Had this horse be trained by a more “prominent” trainer, he would be much shorter in the market, He is a Group 3 winner over 7 furlongs, and the way he won that race was decent. And a decent winner of a Novice event at Ascot the time before. I think he is very overpriced, and providing he runs (All depends on ground with him) he could serve it up to most of these. Vibes are strong from the yard, and he has been saved for this race ever since York. So we can all hope he turns up and shows us what he is all about.
SELECTION: Indian Run – EW (20/1 Best Odds)
*odds correct at time of posting – 11.30am Friday 13th October*
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