The Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has attracted it’s smallest field since 2018, with just seven runners bidding to land the feature race on Newmarket’s card on Saturday. Our expert editor has identified some of the key trends to follow and provided a runner-by-runner guide below, including our big-race verdict.
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Dewhurst Stakes – Newmarket (7f, 3pm Saturday 8th October)
Key Race Trends
- 8/12 most recent winners were favourites
- 9/12 most recent winners won on their last run.
- 10/12 most recent winners had their last run in the past 34 days.
- 9/12 most recent winners had previously won a Group 1-3 race.
- All of the last 12 winners had at least three runs that season and at least one win. 10 of the last 12 had at least two wins.
- Aidan O’Brien has won 5 of the last 9 renewals, most recently in 2020 with St Mark’s Basilica.
- Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 3 renewals, including last year with Native Trail. William Buick was on board both of his winners.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Nostrum
Has impressed in both runs so far, including when running out a comfortable winner of the Tattersalls Stakes last month over C&D. Looks set to go off as favourite which bodes well for his chances, with eight of the last twelve renewals won by the market leader. Also fits the trends of having a recent run (which he won), and winning a Group race. However, he’s only had two runs this season which is a slight negative.
Naval Power
Represents last years (and 2019) winning trainer/jockey combination and has hardly put a foot wrong in winning each of his four races to date. Drops back down in trip for this but had won his previous three races over 7f so that shouldn’t be an issue. Fits the trend of winning his last race, having three runs this season, and at least two wins. Just misses out on the recent run trend (by one day), and also lacks a Group 1-3 victory.
Chaldean
Frankel colt who seems to be getting better with each run. Last seen running out an impressive winner of the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last month. Fits the trends of winning his last race (within 34 days too), having at least three runs, and winning at least two races (including Group 2 + 3 wins). Looks to have a solid chance.
Aesop’s Fables
Trainer A P O’Brien has a fantastic record in the race – winning it seven times, including five of the last nine renewals. Can become joint leading trainer in the race if his sole representative Aesop’s Fables wins. Was an impressive winner of the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh, before failing to handle the soft ground when finishing fourth in the Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes last month. Fits the trend of having a recent run, although he failed to win it which doesn’t bode well. However, he does fit the trend of at least three runs and two wins, including a Group 2 victory.
Isaac Shelby
It’s been over ten years since trainer Brian Meehan had a Group 1 winner, and he may come up short again with Isaac Shelby looking slightly out of his depth. He just edged out Victory Dance to win the Group 2 Superlative Stakes when last seen in July, but that rival has since been comfortably beaten by Nostrum. The trends also don’t bode well for his chances, with no recent run and only having had two races. However, he is a Group 2 winner and won on his most recent outing, so deserves to line up in this.
Royal Scotsman
Steps up to 7f for the first time after disappointing in the Gimcrack, finishing eight lengths off the winner Noble Style. Won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes in July before that so does at least have a Group win to his name. Also fits the trends of having over three races and two victories. However, he falls short of winning his last race, and having a recent run under his belt. Looks up against it here and may find at least a couple of these too good.
Marbaan
Charlie Fellowes’ colt has won three of his five races, but was soundly beaten in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes when last seen. Reported to have been unsuited by the soft ground, and a return to a sounder surface should see him to better effect. Fits the trend of winning a Group race, having three or more runs (including a recent one) and having at least two wins. However, failed to win his last race and finished almost four lengths behind Aesop’s Fables in that. Will need to improve to be in the mix here.
Dewhurst Verdict
Nostrum has been well backed all week and looks set to go off a deserved favourite. However, the fact he’s only had two runs isn’t ideal and i’m keen to take him on with AESOP’S FABLES, who was clearly unsuited by the soft ground last time out and the return to good group can give trainer A P O’Brien a record-equalling eighth victory in the race. Nostrum looks his biggest danger, and Chaldean fits plenty of the trends – he can run into the final place.
- Aesop’s Fables
- Nostrum
- Chaldean
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Check out this week’s Weekend Watch, where our team of tipsters talk us through their selections, including their picks for the Dewhurst Stakes: