The feature race on day two of the St Leger Festival is the Group 2 Doncaster Cup, won by some of the biggest stars in the staying division over the years. Favourites have an impressive record in the race, winning seven of the last ten renewals, including star stayer Stradivarius winning at odds on in 2019 and 2021.
Last years winner Coltrane looks set to bid to retain his crown, but will face a stiff test from John & Thady Gosden’s Sweet William, whilst Trueshan will prove a threat to all if back to his brilliant best.
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through each of the five runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal went the way of Andrew Balding’s COLTRANE, who just managed to edge out Trueshan and Lismore in a thrilling finish:
Key Trends
- 8 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5 and 7.
- 7 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 12 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 4 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Doncaster Cup, 11 of the last 12 winners had their last run within the last 27 days.
- 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Doncaster, 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Doncaster.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 16 furlongs or further, 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 16 furlongs or further.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 9 previous flat runs, 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous flat wins.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 107 or higher.
- 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Coltrane
(Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy)
Arguably one of the stayers of the season so far, he has not been out of the places in all of his four starts this term, including a win at Group 2 and Group 3 level to his name this season. He is a horse who still seems to be getting better with age, and although he was beaten in the Gold Cup at Ascot in June, he is probably the most consistent Stayer we have in the UK at the moment. A four length winner of the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot in May on his first run of the season, before going on to finish a career best 2nd in the Gold Cup, only to be beaten by an unexposed improver by just under a length. He then went on to finish 3rd in the Goodwood Cup which was a very muddling race, where the winner went off like a scolded cat and the closers couldn’t close quick enough, so you can almost draw a line through that, but he still did well to claim 3rd spot. He then got back to winning ways last time out in the Lonsdale Cup at York where he reversed the form with his Gold Cup Rival Courage Mon Ami, to win keeping on well by just over a length, looking very much on top heading to the line. He is such a consistent likeable sort, who can act on literally any ground conditions with wins on good, good to firm and even good to soft or softer. He is one of the star stayers of the season and will take all the beating in this contest as he looks to land his 2nd Group 2 contest of the season.
2. Broome
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
It seems that Broome has been running for many years now, and it’s fairly mind-blowing he is only a 7yo, but Aidan O’Brien’s globetrotter seems to be suited to operating at the staying trips now a days, where he always seems to run his usual consistent race. He was a Group winner in Meydan to start the season back in February, before going on to contest in some decent staying affairs this season but looking fairly well beaten in all of those, and his limitations at this trip do look somewhat up against it running against some thorough staying types. He was a classy individual in the past however, with Royal Ascot and Group 1 wins to his name, which is the reason he has earned himself the current rating of 116, but that was over shorter trips when he was a younger horse. He can run up with the pace or even lead, so being a smaller field, should he get an easy lead he could run the sting out of most of these, but his last few performances have shown he is now prone to not really starting on terms. I think he looks up against it here with others looking more suited to this trip and conditions.
3. Sweet William
(John & Thady Gosden/Robert Havlin)
An entry that comes somewhat as a little shock given the Gosden horse ran in a difficult Ebor fairly recently, and is currently rated 10lb’s plus behind the main runners in this field, and given he is running off the same weight as them, he would have to improve a tremendous amount to land a blow on this contest. However he is definitely the unexposed type over this new 2m2f trip, which he tackles for the very first time in his short career so far. He has mainly been running in Handicaps this term so takes the step up in class for this race, and he was just rated 85 at the start of the season before the good run streak started. A winner over 1m6f on heavy conditions at Goodwood, you would imagine this step up in trip won’t be a hindrance, but we are in the dark as to if it will. He is a hard horse to gauge heading into this contest as he is some way behind the main two in the market in the ratings, but is fairly short in the market, so maybe connections are expecting a very decent run with the step up in distance and class. But he is by far the least exposed so these new conditions could be the making of a nice new staying horse for the future. His run in the Ebor last time out was excellent, and he was probably unlucky not to win or get closer to the winner given he didn’t really start very well, but he was always staying on very well heading to the line. I think this horse is seen to better effect on ground with a little bit of juice in it, so the expected softer conditions could suit better than the good to firm last time out. He is in good form of late, and the Gosden’s know how to campaign a potential stayer in the making. He is a very interesting runner in my opinion.
4. The Grand Visir
(Ian Williams/Richard Kingscote)
This horse is by far the outsider of the field, and you can really see why. Rated just 93 which is someway behind the rest of these, he is also the alder of the field being a 9yo, he hasn’t won since winning the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting back in June 2019. He has however been running in some decent contests since however, although they have been in handicaps ranging over all sort of distances and ground conditions. Although he won well to finish 3rd in the Shergar Cup Stayers at Ascot last time, it would come as a huge shock should he land a Group 2 of this nature up against some of the best staying types we have to offer in the UK.
5. Trueshan
(Alan King/Hollie Doyle)
There have been a few question marks as to whether Trueshan is operating at his very best this season, as he has been beaten on both starts this term going off at very short prices. However he is a Multiple Long Distance Cup winner, A Goodwood Cup winner and a Group 1 Qatar Prix du Cadran winner in the past so has arguably the best form to offer being the only Group 1 winner in the field. He is the flat stable star for Alan King who has possible touted at a Hurdle campaign for his multiple Group 1 winner, but I suppose that might depend on how he gets on at Doncaster this weekend. The main slight concern for the Alan King stayer is the fact he hasn’t been seen on the track in over 130 days, as his previous record fresh doesn’t really flatter him, and it begs the question as to why he hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in the Sagaro Stakes last time which came back in May. Trueshan has been beaten by Coltrane on a few occasions previously, and given the latter looks to be still improving as a stayer, and there being question marks on Trueshan’s abilities at present, to me he will be up against it here. However he gets his beloved softer conditions at the moment, which will obviously very much play to his strengths in this. Hollie Doyle seems to really get a good tune out of him which is another plus, and he could bounce back after the break but there are a few question marks looming over him heading into this contest.
Big-Race Verdict
Although we could easily see Trueshan bounce back here off a little break on his favoured softer conditions, or we could see the unexposed Sweet William thrive at this new staying trip, I just feel the safest option is by far the proven stayer with no real question marks, Coltrane. Andrew Balding has worked wonders with this horse, taking him from a Handicapper to a 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup, he still seems to be getting better and better at these staying trips the more he runs in them. Conditions wont be an issue and Oisin Murphy is in very good form at present, he does get on very well with this horse. Coltrane should be backing up his awesome Lonsdale Cup victory from last time to land his 2nd Group 2 contest for the season.
SELECTION: Coltrane – To Win (6/4 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 2.50pm Wednesday 13th September*
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