The Ebor Handicap is the most valuable flat handicap in Europe. Held on the fifth and final day of the Ebor Festival, it’s a race that has seen just one winning favourite in the last fifteen years.
John & Thady Gosden won the race last year with Trawlerman and will bid to do so again this year with Sweet William, who has won his last three races. However, with favourites having a poor record in the race, it may pay to look elsewhere.
GG editor Jake Russell previews the race, looking at the key trends for the racing before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he’s backing to come out on top.
Last year’s renewal went the way of John and Thady Gosden’s TRAWLERMAN, who ran out a game winner under a fantastic Frankie Dettori ride:
Past 10 winners of the Ebor
- 2022 – Trawlerman (Frankie Dettori and John Gosden)
- 2021 – Sonnyboyliston (Ben Coen and Johnny Murtagh)
- 2020 – Fujaira Prince (Andrea Atzeni and Roger Varian)
- 2019 – Mustajeer (Colin Keane and Ger Lyons)
- 2018 – Muntahaa (Jim Crowley and John Gosden)
- 2017 – Nakeeta (Callum Rodriguez and Iain Jardine)
- 2016 – Heartbreak City (Adam McNamara and A J Martin)
- 2015 – Litigant (Oisin Murphy and Joseph Tuite)
- 2014 – Mutual Regard (Louis Steward and Johnny Murtagh)
- 2013 – Tiger Cliff (Tom Queally and Lady Cecil)
Key Runners Guide
15. Sweet William
(John & Thady Gosden and Robert Havlin)
I feel this horse is absolutely tailor made for this race, and he has been campaigned exceptionally with this race in the forefront of the trainers mind, statistics suggest favourites in this contest do not do very well at all in this race previously, with the last market leading winner being Purple Moon back in 2007 trained by Luca Cumani and ridden by Jamie Spencer. Sweet William wasn’t seen as a 2yo, and he only ran twice as a 3yo coming 2nd on both occasions, before being the bridesmaid once again in his “seasonal” debut at Southwell in April. But the Gosden trained horse hasn’t looked back since, and seemingly something has clicked as he has won his last three runs. A 4 length winner at Doncaster, then a 3 length win in a pretty decent field at Newbury before going on to win in his last start at Goodwood, beating Adjuvant by just under 3 lengths, with those two finishing clear of the 3rd place horse. He still seems to be improving with each passing run, and does seem versatile with regards to the ground conditions as he has won on good to firm, good and heavy conditions, but he has been on a 14lb rise since his first career victory three runs ago, so he needs to prove this new mark of 99 isn’t his ceiling. However I do feel should everything go right for him in the race, he is the one they all have to catch come the winning post. But the lack of winning favourites for the last 15 years or so is a slight concern.
9. Absurde
(Willie Mullins and Frankie Dettori)
As we all know, if Willie Mullins send over one or more of his horses for a staying Handicap contest then they have to be taken very seriously no matter the form or what mark the BHA give them pre-race. And the son of Fasnet Rock has only had the three runs for Willie, after being previously trained over in France where he won on two occasions on the flat, but also placed on six different occasions in some decent contests. Now he didn’t run over this sort of trip for previous connections, however he has already had the two runs over obstacles for the Mullins yard, wining on Hurdling debut with Paul Townend riding, then slightly disappointing at Galway in a Listed Novice Hurdle, but he did make plenty of mistakes which didn’t help his cause. Now the one and main piece of form to concentrate on is his 2nd placed effort behind Vauban in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot in June, which was an excellent display given the winner Vauban is most likely heading to the Melbourne Cup in November. He couldn’t lay a glove on the winner that day, but was staying on well to just claim 2nd spot in the closing stages. That run was off the mark of 101, and he is just 3lbs higher for this contest today, with Frankie Dettori booked, who won this race on Trawlerman last season.
13. Real Dream
(Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore)
Another horse the top end of the market who arrives into this race in a real rich vein of form currently, he has a similar profile to Sweet William in the fact that he didn’t race as a 2yo, and it took him a little bit of racing time to get his act together and win a race. A winner on his last 3yo start at Doncaster, he was then gelded which has seemed to work a treat since, as he won on seasonal re-appearance at Kempton with Protected Guest a length in 2nd, before going on to be pitched in the deep end when contesting in the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap to which he came a very decent 3rd, only beaten by a length and was unlucky in the closing stages when short of room at a crucial point of the race. He then put in a career best performance next time out at Ascot which arguably booked him the place to contest in this race on Saturday, when dismantling a decent field over this trip for the first time to beat Crescent Lake by just under 5 lengths, putting him up 8lb in the process. He still has a little bit of learning to do judging by how he runs during his races, but this sort of trip could be the making of him and he could go well in this, landing Sir Michael Stoute’s first win in the race since 1996.
1. Live Your Dream
(Saaeed Bin Suroor and Oisin Murphy)
The top weight for this contest, Saaeed Bin Suroor has worked absolute wonders with this horse, as he wasn’t seen in over 600 days before this season, where he has recorded the form figures of 231, and has looked a real force over this sort of trip in these big field handicaps. His performance last time out in the bet365 Trophy at Newmarket was probably a career best to date, where he won the race by just under 2 lengths, which earned him his new career high rating of 109. Sea Pigeon was the last horse back in the late 70’s to win this race off top weight, so he does have that burden to bare heading into this, but he looks to be another type who could improve even more over this longer trip, which he shown last time out when tackling the 1m6f for the very first time. The top weight is slightly concerning, but connections must feel this wont be an issue for him, and the yard do very well with these older types in big fielded handicaps. He could prove the classy option to side with in this contest.
Outsiders To Look Out For
12. HMS President
(Alan King and Rossa Ryan)
A horse that I really rate for connections, who I thought heading into Royal Ascot had a huge chance of winning the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes on rattling ground, just found one to good and finished 2nd only beaten by a neck by a horse who has since placed in Group company. He was a neck winner of the Howden Handicap at Newmarket earlier on in the season over the 1m6f trip, which was on softer conditions, but he has some previous form on better ground that suggests connections would rather aim for that instead of any with a little cut in it. He was declared to run at Goodwood a few weeks back, but was pulled out due to what I can only imagine was the ground. With the better ground seemingly in his favour at York this week, I expect him to run a decent race at very good odds at present, and it wouldn’t surprise me should we see him shorten in the betting nearer to the off time of the race come Saturday.
4. Cemhaan
(George Baker and Hollie Doyle)
Another horse that I really like the look of in these big field contests, the George Baker trained son of Muhaarar doesn’t exactly have the pedigree for this sort of trip, and in his previous runs over this trip he was fairly well beaten, he seems to be thriving with his racing at present. A very decent 5 length winner at Kempton back in May over 1m4f, he then went on to run an almighty race in the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot, finishing a very decent 3rd at the odds of 66/1, running on well down the home straight but was just pipped on the post for 2nd spot by a thorough stayer. That was probably a career best run, and he will need to back it up here back at a trip that has a few slight question marks, but Hollie Doyle gets on well with this horse, and he is clearly loving his racing at the moment. All his best form reads on better conditions, with that career best run coming on good to firm conditions last time out. He is a big price, and will need to obviously put in by far a career best to land a blow in this, but the ground conditions are key with him and he could run on well like last time to claim a place at bigger odds.
Verdict
As per usual this is a very, very tricky race to decipher, and you wouldn’t expect anything less for the most valuable flat handicap race in Europe. Sweet William could probably be the class act that comes out of the race, but the form of favourites in previous renewals does put a slight cloud over that judgement. Absurde would be my main selection, no Vauban in this contest and he was running on well last time, and last years winning rider Frankie Dettori would look to win the race again for the very last time before retiring. HMS President get’s his better ground conditions, and he ran an excellent race at the royal meeting last time, he will run well at a decent price, although I do expect him t shorten in the market. Cemhaan is running well at present, and although needs to show some sparkle of form at this trip, he does like the good ground and the easier track of York will suit, he ran an excellent race last time out the royal meeting and arrives here fresh and ready to pounce.
SELECTION: Absurde – EW (15/2 Best Price), HMS President – EW (20/1 Best Price) & Cemhaan – EW (33/1 Best Price)
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