York’s Ebor Festival concludes on Saturday with the card headlined by the ultra-competitive Ebor Handicap. Our trends expert has delved into recent renewals and provided a few pointers to help narrow down the field. Check out the key stats below, alongside an exclusive customer offer from Kwiff, who are offering a £20 Surprise Bet, when you sign up and place a £10 bet.
Sky Bet Ebor Handicap – York (15:35, Saturday 20th August)
Last Ten Winners
2021 – Sonnyboyliston (Johnny Murtagh, Ben Coen) 10/1
2020– Fujaira Prince (Roger Varian, Andrea Atzeni) 11/2F
2019– Mustajeer (Ger Lyons, Colin Keane) 16/1
2018 – Muntahaa (John Gosden, Jim Crowley) 11/1
2017 – Nakeeta (Iain Jardine, Callum Rodriguez) 12/1
2016 – Heartbreak City (Tony Martin, Adam McNamara) 15/2
2015 – Litigant (Joe Tuite, Oisin Murphy) 33/1
2014 – Mutual Regard (Johnny Murtagh, Louis Steward) 20/1
2013 – Tiger Cliff (Lady Cecil, Tom Queally) 5/1
2012 – Willing Foe (Saeed bin Suroor, Frankie Dettori) 12/1
Key Trends
Rating – Officially Rated 103 or Higher (7/10)
Horses officially rated 103 or higher have been the go-to in the Ebor in recent years, landing seven of the last ten renewals and each of the last six. Six of this year’s field are officially rated 102 or lower.
Class – Winner at Class 2 Level or Higher (9/10)
Winning form at this level has proven imperative to finding recent Ebor winners, with nine of the last ten renewals won by a horse who had previously scored at Class 2 level or higher previously. The exception to this was 2013 winner Mutual Regard, who was yet to win above Class 4 level in Britain but had landed a handicap at the Curragh.
Distance – Winner Over 1m4f+ (10/10)
The Ebor is run over 1m6f and proven stamina is crucial, with all of the last ten Ebor winners having scored over at least 1m4f previously.
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Draw – Drawn in a Double-Figure Stall (8/10)
Whilst those drawn low would usually presume to be an advantage here, that hasn’t been the case in the Ebor with just two of the last ten winners berthed in a single-figure stall. Those drawn in stalls 12-18 have done particularly well landing seven renewals during this period.
Betting – 16/1 or Shorter (8/10)
The Ebor would be considered by many to be one of the biggest betting races of the year but it is a race that punters have traditionally done quite well in, with eight of the last ten winners sent off at odds of 16/1 or shorter.
Form – Top 6 Finish LTO (10/10)
Horses coming into the Ebor out of form don’t have a great record with all of the last ten winners finishing in at least the top six on their start prior.
Trends Verdict
Removing horses that finished out of the top six last time out, hadn’t won over 1m4f+, and are berthed in a single-figure stall narrows this year’s Ebor field down to ten.
Went factoring in price (16/1 or shorter) and Class 2 winning form, we are left with a field of just three for this year’s Ebor; Gaassee, Trawlerman and Get Shirty.
Trawlerman is running off a mark of 101, lower than a typical Ebor winner, and Get Shirty has a very wide draw to overcome, so the preference from a trends perspective goes to GAASSEE.
He looked like a prime Ebor candidate when landing the Jorvik Handicap over 1m4f here in May and certainly wasn’t disgraced when attempting to follow that up in the Old Newton Cup last time, not enduring the clearest of runs from the back of the field.
Gaassee is 2lb higher here but he holds a Group 1 entry later this season so connections clear feel that he has the potential to make up into a horse better than a handicapper. William Haggas is yet to land the Ebor but in Gaassee he appears to hold an excellent chance of putting that right on Saturday afternoon.