Britain’s richest flat race of the year awaits at Epsom on Saturday, and it’s set to be a fascinating renewal of the Derby. Auguste Rodin flopped at the first stage in his bid for a Triple Crown, and he’ll have to be back to his best to fend off the challenges of the likes of Arrest and Passenger.
GG Editor Tom Aldridge gives us his verdict on who he’s backing to finish 1-2-3, where he’s backing those at the head of the betting to prove best of a talented line up.
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1st – ARREST
(John & Thady Gosden/Frankie Dettori)
He might have a wide draw out in stall 13 and may be better on softer ground, but I really do think Arrest can give Frankie the perfect Epsom sign off with a win in the Derby. This horse has impressed me every time I’ve watched him, and after his easy win in the Chester Vase I think he’s tailor made for this test.
His only defeats have come on debut when he was slowly away, and when missing out by a head to Dubai Mile in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. The ground was heavy on that occasion which would’ve suited Dubai Mile a lot more than Arrest, and with his stamina assured over this trip I’m confident he’ll reverse that form here.
The Frankel colt oozed class on his seasonal reappearance when finishing over six lengths clear of Adelaide River in the Chester Vase, and he could’ve won by further if asked. John Gosden may not have had a Derby winner since Golden Horn back in 2015 but he should have a huge chance of winning this, and the market appears in agreement, with his odds shortening from 6/1 into 4/1 (correct at time of writing). That might be down to the Frankie factor, with punters jumping on his final Derby ride, but I think he’ll be difficult to beat if handling the ground and he can give Dettori the perfect send off in his final season.
2nd – AUGUSTE RODIN
(A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
A P O’Brien tipped Auguste Rodin as his best hope of the Triple Crown, but having flopped in the 2000 Guineas that dream is now out of the question and he needs to redeem himself here. His Vertem Futurity victory was impressive and he’ll need to get back to those kind of levels if he is to go close in this. Something was clearly amiss in the 2000 Guineas as it was too bad a performance to be true, and his trainer reported that he never travelled after suffering interference early on. With that in mind, you can excuse that run and with this step up in trip set to suit, he’ll surely go close.
His trainer’s record in this race is astonishing – having won three of the last six renewals, finishing runner-up in the other three, so it’s difficult to see his chief hope this year finishing far off the winner. I just have a feeling that Arrest will prove too good, with his stamina guaranteed.. That Triple Crown could be a distant dream come Saturday afternoon!
3rd – PASSENGER
(Sir Michael Stoute/Richard Kingscote)
Last year’s winning trainer/jockey combo team up with Passenger this year, who has been supplemented for £85,000 to get into the race and I think he has a live chance. Having won comfortably on debut, he was pitched into Group 2 company in the Dante Stakes and having been sent off as favourite, you could argue he disappointed by dead-heating for third. However, he was denied a clear run and would’ve surely finished closer with a clear path.
Sir Michael Stoute is a master at finding winners of the Derby, having won the race four times, and he surely wouldn’t have entered Passenger if he didn’t think he had a chance. I think he’ll go close, but he might just have to settle for a place.
VERDICT
This is a cracker of a race and it’s extremely hard to try and predict the winner. With A P O’Brien’s record in the race, you expect Auguste Rodin to put his disappointing Guineas effort behind him and be right in the mix here, and if Passenger can get a clear run he could give Sir Michael Stoute back to back wins in the Derby. However, I think ARREST‘s performance in the Chester Vase was extremely impressive and I’m backing him to come out on top, with Frankie sure to give it all he’s got to land a third Derby winner at the final time of asking.
If you wanted to back one E/W at a huge price, I’ve been persuaded by Andrew Mount’s reasoning to back Adelaide River, who looks massively overpriced. You can hear his reasoning on the Weekend Watch, which is available further down this article or you can also view it on YouTube ⬇
- Arrest
- Auguste Rodin
- Passenger
Check out our Weekend Watch podcast, where you can see who top tipsters Andrew Mount & Kate Tracey are siding with at Epsom on Saturday. They talk through their picks for all EIGHT races on the Epsom card, including one that Andrew is keen on in the Derby at a HUGE price!
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