The Epsom Derby remains one of the most famous flat races in the world. As with our piece on the Oaks earlier today, we’ve looked into some key ten-year trends to see who fits the bill of a Derby champion. Read our thoughts below, alongside FansBet who are offering a 200% Welcome Bonus Up To £200.
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Form
You can’t get away with a disappointing prep run before the Derby. All of the last ten colts to win at Epsom have been in the top three immediately beforehand, with the only two to have finished third having done so in the 2000 Guineas. Realistically, winning on your last start is the trend to go with, with six of the last ten succeeding in this manner. Those who were runner-up in a trial, or placed in a Classic get a let off. This still means we can say goodbye to Eydon, Sonny Liston and El Habeeb.
Draw
Adayar broke a 24-year long hoodoo for those drawn in stall 1 last season. However, he still represents a significant anomaly. The eight winners who preceded him had all been drawn in stall 7 or above. Getting into your ideal position ahead of the initial right-handed kink is clearly vital, so a wider draw closer to that slight bend has proven preferable. As with the Oaks, we will find out each horse’s stall location later in the week.
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Rating
With the exception of Serpentine, an anomaly in so very many ways, the last nine winners had all achieved an official rating prior to victory. The lowest of those was Adayar last year on 107, the highest being Camelot’s 121 in 2012. Therefore, 107 is the minimum required, though extra plus points to the trio with ratings of 115 or above, as five of the last nine winners with ratings had reached that mark already. Those three this year are Desert Crown, Stone Age and Nations Pride.
Trial
Again, it is probably worth ignoring poor Serpentine, whose only other career win came when victorious in a maiden before his Derby success. Running in a recognised trial is still ideal, with six of the other nine winners coming from the most successful collection of trials: the Chester Vase, the Dante, the Ballysax Stakes and the Lingfield Derby Trial. The other three had all contested the 2000 Guineas, while no other Pattern prep race used by the 18 confirmations in 2022 has had a winner since Kris Kin, who had won the Dee Stakes before success in 2003. Horses to have run in the more successful trials or the 2000 Guineas as their most recent start include: Desert Crown, Changingoftheguard, Piz Badile, Walk Of Stars, Eydon and Royal Patronage.
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Breeding
This trend is almost identical to the Oaks. Only two winners of the Derby in the last decade were not by horses who had won a Group 1 at 1m4f, with Golden Horn being by Cape Cross and Adayar by Frankel. Of the other eight, seven had sires who won a Derby and four were by Galileo. Favourite Desert Crown is by a top middle distance horse in Nathaniel, but he never ran at Epsom. The only Derby-winning sire represented this year is Galileo himself and, unsurprisingly, all of his sons are trained by Aidan O’Brien.
Stable
O’Brien is responsible for six winners since 2012, as well as a runner-up, so once again it pays to side with Ballydoyle’s representatives. It is no negative to be trained by Charlie Appleby either though, as he has sent out two of the last four winners, with only John Gosden and Dermot Weld appearing on the recent roll call otherwise.
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Price
This is where things get very interesting. Three winners since 2012 have gone off favourite, but none have done so at bigger than 13/8. Moreover, there have been no victorious favourites since Golden Horn in 2015. Taking it even further, four of the last five winners have been priced between 16/1 and 40/1. Shocks are far from surprising in the Derby, so if an outsider has ticked enough of the above trends, they may well find themselves towards the top of our shortlist.
Verdict
Ballydoyle’s three representatives are all in the top five on trends due to it being such a positive to be by a Derby winner and trained by Aidan O’Brien. Desert Crown ticks some boxes too, having won a recognised trial to earn a lofty rating. However, all of CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, Star Of India and Stone Age have lots going for them too. The first two are available at bigger prices, which makes them attractive given the odds of some recent winners, but Changingoftheguard has the added bonus of having emerged from the Chester Vase, which has provided two Derby heroes in the last decade. Neither the Dee Stakes or Leopardstown Derby Trial have done so. Westover completes the top five, as it is not a massive negative to be by Frankel. He arrives in good form which helped him achieve a decent rating and his price is another which is tempting.
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