It is the start of a big week of internationally renowned racing at Epsom. The two Classics, the Oaks and the Derby, take place on Friday and Saturday, and we have delved into the recent trends of the fillies’ Classic. Find out which horse comes out on top on these factors, Hollywoodbet‘s new customer offer of £20 In Free Bets when you bet £10.
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Form
Winning is not everything when it comes to form prior to the Oaks, but it certainly helps. Six of the last ten Epsom heroines have arrived off the back of a victory. That may still seem a relatively low percentage given the prestige of the race, though it is certainly preferable to have arrived after a decent performance, as nine of the last decade’s winners have at least finished in the top three immediately beforehand. Only 50/1 rank outsider Qualify falls outside that bracket. The entirety of this year’s field apart from Moon De Vega and The Algarve were in the top three of their races last time out.
Draw
Stall 1 is often seen as a curse in Epsom’s Classics and indeed no winner has emerged from that draw in the last ten years. However, six of them have been drawn between stalls 2 and 5, with the other four drawn at stall 9 or above. A median draw does not look ideal, so towards one of the extremes is preferable. We do not know the draw at this stage for the Oaks, but it will be worth bearing in mind once we do.
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Rating
A mammoth rating certainly is not necessary, with only the fillies who doubled up from the 1000 Guineas, Love and Minding, having achieved ratings of 110 or upwards prior to showing up at Epsom. However, only three of the last ten winners had been rated below 100 (or not rated at all in Was’s case, as she had only run twice in Ireland). Some decent performances along the way should have contributed to a decent mark. This splits the field exactly in two, with six of the dozen having achieved ratings above 100.
Trial
There has been a wide variety of trials used to springboard to Oaks success. Five of the last ten winners had competed at Group level, though all ten had run in Pattern company, with the other half having run in either the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes, Cheshire Oaks or Lingfield Oaks Trial. A notable trend in the middle, however, is how many trials were used in successive years. The Pretty Polly, Irish 1000 Guineas and Cheshire Oaks all provided back-to-back winners, a potential plus for Musidora winner Emily Upjohn after Snowfall’s success a year ago, as well as Ching Shih and The Algarve who finished behind her.
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Breeding
Galileo might not be quite as dominant in the Oaks’ recent history as you might expect, but he has still sired four of the last ten winners. The winning trend here is that six of those ten have been sired by a Derby winner, including the last three, who were all by different ones in Sea The Stars, New Approach and the aforementioned Galileo. A further two have been daughters of Group 1 winners at 1m4f, with the only exceptions being Qualify, by Fastnet Rock, and Anapurna, by Frankel. In betting order, Emily Upjohn, Tuesday (a full sister to Minding), Tranquil Lady, Thoughts Of June and Kawida are all by sires who have won the Epsom colts’ Classic.
Stable
In the last eight years, only two yards have won the Oaks. It is an extraordinary duopoly held by Aidan O’Brien (5) and John Gosden (3), and the pair are responsible for the first four in this year’s market, as well as outside fancies Thoughts Of June and The Algarve.
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Price
Look away if you are a big fan of favourite Emily Upjohn. Only two of the last ten winners of the Oaks have started favourite. That said, they were among the shortest-priced market leaders, as John & Thady Gosden’s filly looks set to be. Though a few double-figure prices stunned the fields between 2012 and 2015, every winner since Minding in 2016 has started at 9/1 or below.
Verdict
“Favourite” has been a difficult title to carry in the Oaks in recent years. A cross-section of the above factors makes it very close between Emily Upjohn and TUESDAY, so the latter is therefore preferred at the prices. A full sister to 2016 Oaks winner Minding, Tuesday arrives after placed efforts in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas, is rated comfortably above 100, represents Aidan O’Brien and is a decent single-figure price up against John Gosden’s favourite. Both Tranquil Lady and Thoughts Of June ranked only narrowly behind the selection and they could represent good each-way plays.
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