Friday’s feature contest at Newmarket is the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, with nine of the best fillies in the mile division set to line up to add their name to the illustrious list of previous winners.
GG editor Tom Aldridge highlights some of the key trends and statistics for the race, before guiding us through all nine runners chances, and giving us his expert verdict on who he’s expecting to come out on top.
Odds correct at time of posting – 5.21pm 12th July
Trends and Statistics on the race:
- All of the last 10 winners were aged 3-4.
- All of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 25 days.
- 9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-5.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 110+.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already ran at least twice that season.
- 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over the 1 mile trip.
- 7 of the last 10 winners had previously raced at Newmarket (4 of them winning).
- Only 3 of the last 10 winners were sent off as favourite.
- Prosperous Voyage (2022) the only winner at double-figure odds in the last 10 years.
- Ryan Moore has ridden three winners in the last six renewals he’s ridden in (other three he came in the top three each time).
- Only two horses have ever won the race more than once (Sonic Lady – 1986 + 1987, Soviet Song – 2004 + 2005).
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Via Sistina
(George Boughey/Jamie Spencer)
The class act in the field this year, having romped to victory in the Dahlia Stakes on seasonal reappearance, and running out a comfortable winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes last time out. Remains to be seen whether the drop back in trip will be a positive or negative, but certainly the one they have to beat. Jamie Spencer booked for the ride, who seems to get on well with her – his record on board reads 102111 (4-6). One negative against her is her age – you have to go back to 2005 to find the last 5YO winner of this. Even so, she’s clear on ratings and should prove difficult to beat.
Nashwa
(John & Thady Gosden/Hollie Doyle)
Two-time Group 1 winner would be tough to beat if replicating that form, however she has disappointed in both races so far this season. Has been supplemented for this race and the drop in trip could see her to better effect, after fading over the longer trips in her last couple of races. Worth noting that she lost to Al Husn last time out, who was comfortably beaten by Via Sistina in the Dahlia Stakes previously. If she can get back to her best, she could take some stopping – it’s just a big if!
Remarquee
(Ralph Becket/Rob Hornby)
Last year’s winning trainer has two in the race, with Remarquee looking the better option. Ran out a cosy winner of the Fred Darling Stakes on reappearance this season, before flopping the 1000 Guineas. Proved that was a one off with a much improved second in the Coronation Stakes, and a repeat of that effort would see her go close here. Receives 9lb from her two main rivals so should have a big say in proceedings.
Coppice
(John & Thady Gosden/Tom Marquand)
Has won three of her four races, with her sole defeat coming on seasonal reappearance in the Nell Gwyn Stakes. Ran out a cosy winner of the Sandringham Stakes last time out, but this is a big step up in class. Lightly raced and could keep improving, but this looks a step beyond her level currently.
Prosperous Voyage
(Ralph Beckett/William Buick)
Ran out a shock 16/1 winner of this last year but has yet to reach that level since. Best effort came when winning the Princess Elizabeth Stakes last month, but regular jockey Frankie Dettori is suspended, so William Buick is on board for the first time. Returning horses don’t have the best record in this, and it might be worth looking elsewhere.
Random Harvest
(Ed Walker/Saffie Osborne)
Has posted a couple of superb efforts lately to finish runner-up in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, finishing ahead of Prosperous Voyage in the latter. Prior to that, she finished a long way behind Via Sistina in the Dahlia Stakes and her only victory in the last 12 months came in a Group 3 in Italy. This will be her first try in Group 1 company, which may prove a step too far for her. She’s clearly improving, but the draw hasn’t helped her chances and she looks worth taking on.
Never Ending Story
(A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
It’s worth noting Aidan O’Brien’s record in this in the last 10 years reads 311332, so you’d expect his runner to be a shorter price than what she is. However, Never Ending Story isn’t up to the standard of some of her rivals here, as was evident when over 8 lengths behind Via Sistina last time out.
Drops back in trip here but her two runs over this distance haven’t shown much. The biggest boost for her is the fact Ryan Moore is back on board, but I don’t see that being enough to reverse form with Via Sistina.
Astral Beau
(Pam Sly/Shane Kelly)
The 4YO has an impressive record at Newmarket, including a win on her only previous effort at the July course, but her recent form leaves something to be desired. She was a decisive winner on seasonal reappearance at Doncaster on heavy ground, before finding Via Sistina too good in the Dahlia Stakes the following month. Her most recent effort saw her finish close behind Prosperous Voyage and Random Harvest in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, but I see no real reason why she should be able to reverse that form here.
Ameynah
(Roger Varian/David Egan)
Roger Varian’s lightly-raced filly has done all her racing to date at Newmarket, but this will be her first time on the July course. She made a pleasing debut when runner-up in October 2021, before returning in April 2022 with a comfortable victory over 7f. She then stepped up in trip and class in the 1000 Guineas, where she was no match for the winner or runner-up (Prosperous Voyage). She would need to reverse that form and this is her first run for way over a year, so it’s likely she will need this run.
Big-Race Verdict:
This looks like it should be VIA SISTINA‘s for the taking. She’s clear on ratings and comes here in red-hot form, where a repeat of her Pretty Polly Stakes effort would be more than enough to win this. Her chief rival Nashwa needs to pick up from a couple of lacklustre efforts this season, but the drop back in trip could help her chances and she would be a threat to the selection if back to her best. Remarquee could have a big say in proceedings if she repeats her Coronation Stakes effort, and with her receiving 9lb from the aforementioned duo she could have a big say in things here.
SELECTION – VIA SISTINA (9/4 generally)
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