The Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket has produced some very good horses over the years, and can be a very good indicator for next years classics or top class Group 1 contests over this sort of trip. Some of the previous winners to have won this feature prize have been Minding, Laurens and Inspiral. Who after winning this as a 2yo all went on to land top prizes as older fillies. Will we have another superstar come out of the race this year?
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw favourites continue their excellent record in the race, as John & Thady Gosden’s COMMISSIONING power to victory, giving jockey Rab Havlin a first Group 1 winner after over 30 years as a jockey:
Key Trends
- 8 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 8 of the last12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Fillies Mile, 12 of the last 12 winners had their last run within the last 29 days.
- 4 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket, 4 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newmarket.
- 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 8 furlongs, 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 8 furlongs.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous flat runs, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins.
- 7 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 95 or higher.
- 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous wins that season.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
7. Shuwari
(Ollie Sangster/Tom Marquand)
Shuwari’s trainer Ollie Sangster has very much landed on his feet with this filly here, with this being his first full season as a trainer. The grandson of Robert Sangster, a prominent breeder in the sport does have a very nice type, which can take some, many years to come across. Ollie’s filly here has only had the three runs so far, which includes a winning debut at Newbury by just under 2 lengths, before going on to confirm the promise when landing a Listed contest at Sandown next time out. That form has worked out miles better than most would have expected. As Fallen Angel was a half a length 2nd that day, who has since come out and win the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes in quite impressive fashion at The Curragh, and he her sights set on some big races next season. Shuwari’s last run came in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket last time, when well fancied in the market, but she didn’t quite look at home on the track. Newmarket can be tricky for the younger horses, and that is a slight concern with her heading into this contest on Friday. But she really did run on well when the penny dropped and she gathered herself, firing home late in the day looking like this step up in trip will really suit her. She is quite clearly very talented, and could easily be a real force when going even further than this, but she does look to still be learning, so could be picked off by one again here. However the rest of the runners here do have less runs than her, and she could easily improve to win this contest. Winning a Group 1 in Ollie Sangster’s first season as a trainer, which is a phenomenal thing to do.
8. Ylang Ylang
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
A horse like most of the expensive Aidan O’Brien youngsters, does have a whole world of expectation whenever she runs, however her last two races have been a little disappointing so that expectation is a little lower now. But her price tag does gather a fair bit of attention whenever she runs, wherever she runs. The daughter of Frankel cost a whopping 1.5 million Guineas, and she did look to potentially be another star for the Ballydoyle team when winning at the Curragh on debut back in June. Sent off a shade odds on, she made all to a cosy victory with the 2nd place horse just under 3 lengths behind her that day. It really was quite an eye catching debut for the impeccably bred horse. She then headed to Leopardstown to run in the Group 3 Jockey Club Of Turkey Silver Flash Stakes, which she scrapped home to win by just a length and a half when sent off well odds on in the market. None the less she still won and was unbeaten in her two career starts with some black type to her name already. Next time out was very disappointing when she finished last in the Moyglare at the Curragh, where she faded tamely with no real explanation as to why. Could that battled effort before at Leopardstown have left a mark on her? As she had to battle for the win in the Group 3. Next time out wasn’t so bad, and like Shuwari in the Rockfel, she ran on well late in the day when the penny finally dropped, looking like the step up in trip will suit, with a potential to step even further in up in trip as a 3yo. She does look more to be one aimed at the Oaks next season rather than the Guineas. As she is bred for a little further than the mile, and that run in the Moyglare does leave a few question marks whenever she runs. Being trained by the master of Ballydoyle, it would not come as a shock to many should she bounce back and win this, but she really needs to be A1 and ready to go to win on Friday.
4. Classical Song
(Ralph Beckett/Rossa Ryan)
The one real thing that really catches my eye with this Ralph Beckett filly, is the form in behind her from that winning effort at Sandown last time. Now she does fall into the could be anything category, having not run at patterned level as yet, however the form in that Sandown Novice run has been backed up really nicely since. The 2nd, 3rd and 5th horses have since all come out and won, and a few of them have won quite nicely indeed, looking like they could improve even further. Also the form of her debut 2nd isn’t to bad either as the winner (Ornellaia) has since placed in both Group 1 and 2 company, looking like quite a nice type for next season. Her performance last time was very smooth, travelling nicely throughout the race before pulling clear to win by 3 lengths, looking quite comfortable in the end. It’s hard to know where her ceiling is at, at this stage, and given the fact the main two in the market have ran in patterned company, she might find this a little to hot to handle at this stage in her career. However there is no denying she does look to be a very nice type, and on paper is very well bred. With Ralph Beckett having a stellar season so far, along with the jockey booked for his filly here in Rossa Ryan, she could very much be one to keep an eye on heading into this race, and for next season as a 3yo, as I’m sure she will be stepping up in trip like most of these.
6. Sea The Fire
(Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy)
Oisin Murphy has just recently hit the 100 winners for the season, which is remarkable considering he missed all of last term due to suspension. And he could have a nice chance to land a Group 1 for his boss Andrew Balding as the season pretty much comes to a close. Their runner here Sea The Fire, is a daughter of Sea The Stars and does look to b every well bred, and unlike most of the lesser experienced rivals in the field, she has previously run in a Group contest. Before that she was a nice debut winner at Newmarket with Heartfullofstars just under 2 lengths in behind, that horse as well as the 3rd place finisher has won since. It was her run last time that catches the eye, when lining up against the more experience Darnation in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. Where she did look threatening to the eventual winner, however she hung left under pressure and was hampered in the closing stages. Judging by that effort last time, she still has plenty of learning to do, however with more racing experience under her belt now, she could put it altogether on Friday with trip and conditions there to suit. A bit like the Ralph Beckett filly, she does fall in the could be anything category again, but that run last time, amidst greenness was a decent one. I think judge on that effort, she might be a little overpriced here.
One At A Decent Price
5. Seaward
(Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch)
The 2nd of two Ralph Beckett fillies in the contest this year, as he searches for his first winner in this race, although Seaward is virtually the outsider of the field, I don’t think she necessarily deserves to be written off heading into this. A decent 4th on debut at Newmarket, she wasn’t beaten all that far and was hampered and bumped into in the closing stages, but that didn’t seem to deter her as she ran on well heading to the line, only beaten by a length. She then lined up at Ascot next time out when well fancied in the market, where she duly obliged the market support to make all and win pulling away by a length and a half, looking like she has a little something about her. That race does look a little weak however, so she might lack the potential some of these have, however why would Ralph run her against one of his other nice types if he didn’t think she was good enough to compete. I think the mile on good to better ground is right up her street, and she could very much out run her odds on Friday.
Big-Race Verdict
Now I found it quite difficult to really lay my finger on who will win this contest on Friday, as I think all of the 8 runners realistically could have a chance of winning, as they are all lightly raced and could improve dramatically with each run. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me should Shurwari win, or Ylang Ylang bounce back to top form, however I think Sea The Fire could have a higher ceiling than most of these, and is worth chancing at the prices. She is actually 1lb higher in the ratings than Shuwari, and although only has the two runs to her name so far, that effort last time was very eye catching considering she was quite green throughout the contest, and was badly hampered late on. If she can put that greenness behind her, I genuinely do think her ceiling could be higher than most of these runners. Ralph Beckett’s “2nd string” runner Seaward is a little overpriced, and the manner she won last time, making all at Ascot suggests she has something about her. I could see her running well into the placings.
SELECTION: Sea The Fire – EW (12/1 Best Odds) & Seaward – EW (18/1 Best Odds)
*odds correct at time of posting – 3.45pm Wednesday 11th October*
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