The feature race at Sandown is the Listed Fortune Stakes (3.40pm), which has been won by some talented horses over the years. None more so than last year’s winner Bayside Boy, who after winning this race followed up in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
With ten runners declared, the two to focus on appear to be Superior Mile Stakes winner Chindit and Celebration Mile Stakes runner-up Knight, with both runners bringing solid form into the race. Trends might support the chances of both runners, especially the 3YO angle for Simon & Ed Crisford’s runner.
Since 2000, there have been 23 renewals and 3YO’s have won 14 of them, with just five winners ages six or older. Having finished third in the race as a 5YO, the now 7YO Sir Busker will have to buck that trend if he’s going to win here!
GG editor Tom Aldridge previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Bayside Boy run out a comfortable winner for Roger Varian and William Buick. The form of the race took a huge boost when the winner was a shock 33/1 winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot next time out:
Key Trends
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 3-4 (7 were 3YO’s).
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 + 7 (including each of the last 5 renewals).
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an official rating of 107+.
- 5 of the last 10 winners were sent off as favourite or joint favourite.
- Just 3 of the last 10 winners had won their previous race.
- Richard Hannon has won three of the last six renewals.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Chindit
(Richard Hannon/Pat Dobbs)
It’s hardly surprising to see Richard Hannon’s runner feature towards the head of the betting, considering his excellent recent record in the race. He also brings some of the best form to the table, having won the Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes at Haydock on his last start. It’s his record outside of Group company that makes him hard to oppose here, having won all four of his races at Listed level or lower. He does have to saddle top weight in here, but he’s 2/2 in September and has regular jockey Pat Dobbs back on board, so it’s difficult to see him not being thereabouts at the finish.
2. Eydon
(Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy)
The lightly-raced colt has only had four races to date, and having been off the track for 508 days, he may just need the run here. He’ll find this a lot easier than his last assignment, when finishing 4th in the 2000 Guineas back in April, when trained by Roger Varian. He’s since moved to the Andrew Balding yard, and it will be interesting to see what he’s capable of. Considering all three horses who finished ahead of him in the Guineas have since won Group 1’s, he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. However, a 500 day break isn’t ideal and he might find one or two runners are more race-fit than him.
3. Raadobarg
(George Boughey/Rossa Ryan)
George Boughey’s yard are in good form and Raadobarg has some good bits of form that could see him go close. He was only 3/4 of a length behind Chindit back in May and is 5lb better off with that rival this time around. He’s since put in a couple of poorer efforts but will find this easier than his last assignment in Group 3 company at Deauville. Rossa Ryan was on board for his maiden victory back in 2021 and has been on board three times since, so he’s no stranger to the horse. If the ground softens I expect he’ll shorten in price but either way he’s certainly not out of this.
4. Sir Busker
(William Knight/Callum Sherpherd)
The 7YO hasn’t won for over a year and you have to go back to 2020 to find his last win over this trip. He’s winless in three runs this season and although two of those have been in better company, he was beaten by a long distance in each of them. The return to Listed company will see him in a better light, and he has run well fresh in the past, winning on seasonal reappearance in 2020 and finishing runner-up on his first run this year. However, it would be a shock if he was to improve on his third-placed effort in this race back in 2021.
5. Knight
(Simon & Ed Crisford/James Doyle)
Knight has only had the five races so far in his career, and having failed to win any of his last three, his connections have found him a good opportunity to resume winning ways. He was only half a length away from winning the Celebration Mile Stakes at Goodwood last month, and receiving 9lb from his biggest rival Chindit, plus the fact that the red-hot James Doyle remains on board, I expect him to be hard to beat. The ground may be softer than ideal for him, but he won on this going on debut and if the application of first time cheekpieces can eke out any improvement, he deserves his place at the head of the betting.
6. Lord Of Biscay
(Roger Varian/David Egan)
Roger Varian’s 3YO has a lot to find with Knight from last season, when chasing him home in the Horris Hill Stakes, and he hasn’t improved at the same level as the Crisford runner this year. He may have won on seasonal reappearance, but that form hasn’t worked out all that well and his recent 4th in Listed company at Chantilly isn’t at the same level of some of his rivals form. He looks a bit out of his depth here and I don’t see him beating many home.
7. Silver Sword
(Dylan Cunha/Greg Cheyne)
Dylan Cunha’s runner has won three of his seven completed races to date (he refused to race in his first two starts), which isn’t the greatest record, but they all came over this trip and with Greg Cheyne on board. He ran out a comfortable winner last time out in the Sky Bet Mile Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, and he’s earned his chance in Listed company. This is a much tougher race than he’s been racing in, but if the race is run to suit he’s capable of running into a place.
8. Purplepay
(William Haggas/Tom Marquand)
Having only won once since moving to the Haggas yard from France, it’s difficult to see Purplepay getting involved here. That sole win came when sent back over to France too, and although she’s placed in two of her three UK runs this season, I think she looks a bit out of her depth here. Those two placed efforts were in Listed company so the drop back to this level will help, but she was comfortably beaten by Heredia in her last two races and I think she’ll find a few too good again here. There’s only been two fillies win this in the last ten years, and although I do think she’s the pick of the three fillies here, I can’t see her troubling the market leaders.
9. Breege
(John Quinn/Jason Hart)
Another 3YO filly who might find this too strong, John Quinn’s runner is closely matched with Purplepay and Novus on their last run. She actually did worst of the three that day, despite going off as favourite, and it’s difficult to see her reverse form with Purplepay on 3lb worse terms. Her best efforts have come on firmer ground and I think she would need the ground to dry up considerably to get involved here.
10. Novus
(Gary Moore/Rhys Clutterbuck)
Gary Moore’s 3YO filly has some solid pieces of form to her name, but the best of her form has come at Goodwood and she only has the one win to her name away from the Sussex racecourse. She’s 0/3 at Sandown, but she did put in a good effort to finish ahead of Purplepay last time out in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes, finishing two lengths off the winner Heredia. Connections have opted to put her in first-time cheekpieces and she could be interesting if they bring out any improvement, but her trainer isn’t in the best of form and a place could be the best she could hope for.
Big-Race Verdict
I like this race a lot and although I do feel he might struggle to give 9lb to his biggest rival Knight, I just can’t see past CHINDIT. Once you factor in Richard Hannon’s excellent record in the race, plus the selections 100% record outside of Group company, I think he’s more than capable of giving weight and a beating to his rivals.
Of those at a bigger price, I wouldn’t put you off backing RAADOBARG each-way. The AMO racing runner has some good pieces of form to his name, none more so than when chasing home Chindit at Ascot back in June. If he can put in a similar effort here, he looks overpriced and can give the top two in the betting most to think about.
SELECTION: CHINDIT (win – 7/2 Bet365, 3/1 William Hill) + RAADOBARG (E/W – 11/1 William Hill, 10/1 Bet365)
*odds correct at time of posting – 3.20pm Tuesday 19th September*
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