Registered in the name of Fred Winter, but run as the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, this race for four-year-olds has punters dreaming of a win at sizeable odds. We have looked at the key trends below to try and point to this year’s winner, potentially at a decent price.
Starting Price
Sometimes a favourite justifies their odds in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, but this is regularly a graveyard for market leaders. Only three have ever obliged, with two of those being outright favourites in Sanctuaire and Band Of Outlaws, the latter being the only favourite in the last 13 runnings to be victorious. Otherwise, just three other winners have been priced in single figures, leaving 13 to have gone off at double figure odds.
Even then, very few of those have gone off towards the head of the betting. Overall, nine of the 19 Fred Winter winners have started at 20/1 or greater. This really is an outsiders’ paradise if you can find the right horse in the right year.
Starting Price of All Fred Winter Winners
- <5/1 – 3 winners
- 11/2-10/1 – 4 winners
- 11/1-18/1 – 3 winners
- 20/1+ – 9 winners
Weight Carried
Despite outsiders succeeding in the race, those towards the head of the handicap have tended to succeed more. 12 of the 19 winners have carried at least 11st, including eight of the last ten. Jeff Kidder in 2021 and Jazzy Matty last year are outliers in having carried less weight in that period.
Of those, six winners have come from the top five in the handicap, nearly a third of all renewals in this race. That said, five winners have carried saddlecloth 18 or higher too, so it can pay to stick away from those in the middle of the handicap.
Weight Carried by All Fred Winter Winners
- 10st-10st 6lb – 3 winners
- 10st 7lb-10st 13lb – 4 winners
- 11st-11st 6lb – 8 winners
- 11st 7lb+ – 4 winners
Form
Though most probably view this race as one in which a decent horse has had its true abilities masked in Graded company, nine of the 19 winners had actually won on their previous start, including three of the last five in exactly the same novice hurdle in Ireland. That being said, five of the “last time out” winners to go in again in this race came in the first six renewals, leaving just four in the 13 since.
Conversely, though finding a winner on their previous start can be handy, do not look for horses who had made the frame. Only one winner has obliged having been placed on their last outing, that being Diego Du Charmil. Even then, he was having his first run for Paul Nicholls in the Fred Winter, so if you are looking to back a horse who did not win most recently, look for one who finished between fourth and seventh, as they would have provided you with the remaining nine victors in this contest.
Form of All Fred Winter Winners
- 1st – 9 winners
- 2nd-3rd – 1 winner
- 4th-7th – 9 winners
- 8th+ – 0 winners
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