Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to give us his A-Z of the Novice Hurdler division. He discusses some of the key horses who could be set to line up at the Festival, and which races they could/should be aiming for!
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
4th January
Fakir D’Oudairies – Ryanair Chase @ 10/1 – NRNB with William Hill
20th December
Dawn Rising – Albert Bartlett Hurdle @ 25/1
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
Ante-Post Suggested Bet
Fakir D’Oudairies – Ryanair Chase @ 10/1 – NRNB with William Hill
THE STORYTELLER, BLUE LORD & MONMIRAL have all been in action since the last published column so let’s start with a quick run through of those.
THE STORYTELLER raced on boxing day in a Hunters Chase which was won by VAUCELET. I received a message from a friend on Christmas morning who had been informed about an issue with The Storyteller which I wasn’t aware of. Apparently he is suffering from spinal arthritis so the feedback mainly suggests that he can get away with racing without really being asked for an effort (like in modest point to points), but in better company (such as this Hunter Chase race) he’s going to have to be asked for an effort, at which point his body may not be quite up to it. I didn’t have a bet in the race, but I was a little surprised that he was well backed into favouritism while Vaucelet drifted out to 2/1 for this race in isolation given plenty would have had sight of this message. As for The Cheltenham Bet; it will of course remain in the column, however if I knew then what I know now he wouldn’t have been posted, so armed with this new information if you have the ability to cash out then I would advise it, but I appreciate the top price he was advised at was with a couple of firms who may not be offering that concession.
BLUE LORD won the Grade 1 Paddy Rewards Club Chase over 2m1f on the 27th and in doing so threw his hat firmly into the Champion Chase ring. Not exactly ideal for us having put him up for the Ryanair at 33/1 for which he is now best priced 7/1 and is the same price for Queen Mother Champion Chase the day prior. However a lot can and will hinge on other runners in the yard so we’ll find out more at or before the Dublin Racing Festival, plus the ground come March would be another significant factor as to which trip he is more likely to tackle. As for right now though, I’d probably suggest that he’s slightly favouring the Champion Chase so this gives me a chance to talk about something to consider with Ante-post betting which maybe doesn’t get explained often enough.
The Exchanges can often provide a better picture and at the time of writing he’s around 10.0 to lay in the Champion Chase for small money (£11) and 12.0 for the Ryanair to lay for £15. The point of me bringing that to light is to discuss options at this stage in terms of our ante-post bet. The exchanges will have low liquidity on their Cheltenham Ante-Post markets as displayed with the volumes to lay for Blue Lord across two races, however that doesn’t mean you can’t get money matched if you wait a little bit. In the Ryanair Market we know he’s top priced 7/1 with a bookmaker and you could have the benefit of cash out although with him being a horse with an uncertain target that concession could be removed from him at any point. This means on The Exchange you might have to lay him a little over the top price but seeing as we’ve backed him at 33/1, or even 25/1 if you missed the top price, there is the potential to lay him to recover your stake and leave an amount as a freeroll should he turn up. Using the price available at the time of writing you could lay a £10 stake at 12.0 and if you’d backed him at 33/1 you’d essentially forfeit £110 of the potential £330 winnings but for no risk resulting in £220 should he win the Ryanair and £0 loss in any other circumstance. This might be a new method for readers of this column, and you would need to tie £110 up in the Betfair account so it’s not something everyone will feel comfortable with and I appreciate that. Cash out is another consideration where you could either take a portion of your bet back to cover the stake or you could cash out completely and then back him NRMB as those markets are now being put out. You will sacrifice quite a bit of the value we’ve attained by doing this but again, I’m just running through the thought process and the considerations because we’ve put ourselves in a favourable position with this selection so it’s a good example to use for other similar looking bets you may have struck yourself.
Lastly on this, we’ve seen some NRMB markets introduced and FAKIR D’OUDARIES at 10/1 for the Ryanair with William Hill stands out as an auto-bet so I advised him to be added this week. The only situation where he runs is if ALLAHO doesn’t so it’s more than likely we’ll just get out money back, however in the event Allaho doesn’t run (which may help us with Blue Lord too), Fakir would never be a 10/1 shot. This price and concession is available in William Hill shops too, so those without an account should still be able to get on.
MONMIRAL was second in The Dipper on New Years’ Day at Cheltenham which is over the middle trip. He was slightly disappointing in defeat but the winner has come out of it in a good light and put in a mid-150’s effort. Paul Nicholls comments post-race were that this horse still needs more time and there was even suggestion that he will be tried in the best company this season with a view that they could retain his Novice status for next season where he would be at a significant advantage as a second season Novice.
Forward Thinking – Time To Really Focus!
The turn of a new year marks pretty much the halfway stage towards the Cheltenham Festival and we now have some informative fixtures and races across January and February followed by the calm before The Storm that is Festival week.
It’s also the start of Non Runner Money Back (Non Runner No Bet) concessions so now is the time to start focussing on specific divisions to see if we can find any value in any markets, ante-post or NRMB, armed with what we’ve seen up to now, and are about to witness. This week is a prime example where the Novice Hurdle division at all three distances could be shaken up with The Tolworth run at Sandown this Saturday and The Lawlors Of Naas (The Slaney Novices’ Hurdle) run on Sunday.
So with so much to review from the Festive period, and plenty that will get lost in the volume of those reviews, I will be solely talking about the Novice Hurdle sphere this week. I’ll cover Novice Chasers and the seasoned divisions in the next few columns which brings us right up to Cheltenham Festival Trials Day, which is followed by The Dublin Racing Festival the weekend after; exciting times ahead!
Novice Hurdlers A-Z
AMERICAN MIKE
A horse who has long been held in high regard and we were told by his trainer Gordon Elliott that we hadn’t seen the best of him last season and that his run at Punchestown could have a line drawn through it. Twice this season he’s been seen over hurdles, firstly winning over 2m 6 1/2f as a long odds-on favourite then beaten back at 2m 4f in a Grade 3 when sent off 2/7. He’s posted 136 and 135 in RPR’s respectively and that’s short of what would be required if we’re looking at a bold show in any Grade 1 at The Festival and his jumping hasn’t been great either.
Not entirely sure of the plan with him going forward but he’d have no chance outside of Handicap Company and potentially he might end up down that route. The Michael Purcell hurdle in February at Thurles has been used in the past by Gordon and other trainers as a stepping stone towards a tilt at the Martin Pipe so that could be one option, alternatively they may push him further out in trip, but as it stands I’m not sure the trip is the issues, more the class he’s up against.
ARCTIC BRESIL
Entered in this weekends Tolworth Hurdle where he would face off against Luccia giving her 7lbs. Won nicely at Cork in early December beating Mercurey who has been well spoken of but is yet to show the same substance on track. The third that day (beaten 7 and a quarter lengths) has been stepped up in trip since beaten by 24 lengths so I’m not sure how good that Cork effort really was, but he did it in isolation. If we look at his point second where he was in front of Master Chewy, that horse was beaten as odds on favourite on his 4th hurdle start and yes to win a race under rules following two defeats in bumpers also. He fell in his first point which was won by Nick Rockett and there might not have been much between those in the finish. He’s come out and been beaten in a bumper early in December and had held entries in Maiden Hurdles but he’s not been seen since. The Tolworth will clearly be interesting if he were to run but I’m not sure he’d be winning that even if he did line up.
ASHROE DIAMOND
Three spins over hurdles this season following 4 runs in bumpers and after winning on debut she’s been tried twice in Grade 1’s finishing 3rd on both occasions. Looks like she stays further than the minimum trip so I’d expect to see her trying the middle trip before this season is over but the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham can suit staying types and it’s worth remembering she did win the Mares Bumper at Aintree last season so she’s top tier in that division.
BETWEEN WATERS
A very easy winner of her point in which the runner up has since won a Bumper by almost 10 lengths. She’s lots of entries coming up with two at about 2m 5f and one at 2m 3½f. Clearly she wants a bit of a trip so it will be interesting to see how much speed she can show in a Maiden or Novice hurdle before tackling stiffer opposition, because I do think that the genuine top grade middle to staying types typically posses plenty of speed too, such is their class.
BLOOD DESTINY
Willie Mullins Juvenile who was beaten in France by Bo Zenith although arguably came out of the race as the more eye-catching runner. Won on debut for Willie at Cork in early December and you would now imagine he’ll be tested in The Grade 3 Juvenile held at Fairyhouse at the end of February or possibly even The Spring Juvenile which is a Grade 1. Looked good on debut really and the runner up who he gave 7lbs too has won since although beating the 116-rated Calico, who is an 8 race maiden with the horse who was in 3rd in here, back in 3rd again. Whether he’s going to make into Grade 1 standard this season remains to be seen and he will need to take a step forward, but there’s no reason to think he can’t or won’t progress, it’s just a question of how much.
CHAMP KIELY
Is in the Lawlors Of Naas this Sunday having won on hurdle debut over 2m5f in really good fashion before coming back to 2m and comfortably dispatching of last years’ Boodles winner, Brazil. Well held in the Grade 1 Royal Bond over 2m again when sent off favourite but he was plenty keen that day which add reason to be cautious. He looks like he wants a trip, and I think he may even be all the way up as an Albert Bartlett type (remember I like the 2m speed for a stayer), however he would need to settle which could be an issue. He is a 7yo now though, and Cheltenham won’t be a slowly run 3m hurdle race by any means so I still think that’s where he could end up. Of course The Ballymore is just 3f shorter but would be run faster so that will be an option, I just think he’ll be outclassed in there.
COMFORT ZONE
Won the now Grade 2 Finale Juvenile at Chepstow this Christmas but only narrowly and the second and third were close enough for me to be happy to say this horse won’t win a Triumph. Winning a Grade 2 will now put the Boodles mark at threat so while I think he’s a nice enough horse, I cannot see how he reverses the form with Lossiemouth or Zarak The Brave and he’d have more than just those two to worry about should he line up in the Grade 1 Juvenile in March.
DAWN RISING
I wrote plenty about this horse last week which you can freshen up on here: GG Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – 20th December – GG.co.uk but I’ll re-iterate his trainer comments.
“He stays well and has been a progressive horse, coming forward for each run this year. His run in Galway was his first run in a long while so he came on a lot for that and has improved every race since”
“We were delighted with his performance in Navan. He stayed on well and I think he might even stay further than two and a half miles in the future”
He is in the Lawlor Of Naas this Sunday where if he were to run I think he’ll be beaten. I think he wants the 3m trip to show is best so there’s a chance he may go down the Rhinestone route (another JP and Joseph horse) and take in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 over 2m 6f at the Dublin Racing Festival. He may want the experience to run in both too but either way and in any outcome he’s a suggested bet for The Albert Bartlett as mentioned last week and you can still get the top price of 25/1 at the time of writing which looks way too big given what he’s already achieved.
DEEPLY SUPERFICIAL
Nice point winner and looked pretty useful on rules debut over hurdles but the runner up has done nothing to help the form and she was simply not good enough to go with the front three in the Grade 2 Navan Novice Hurdle in December. Would have an easier time back against the girls and could avoid a penalty in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle but there will be something that’s faster than her so I don’t think she’s a Festival winner in waiting but she’s capable of landing a decent pot at some point.
FACILE VEGA
A general 4/5 poke for the Supreme at this stage is not something we see every year. The beautifully bred son of Quevega has done nothing wrong in any of his races but does he really warrant being such a short price? He’s posted an RPR of 152 while winning the Future Champion Novices’ Hurdle which would be a very good indicator to him being a potential Supreme winner but we didn’t need that RPR to know he’s in with a chance, we knew that already. His bumper win came on terrible ground and I was very impressed that day but that form is lukewarm with some good efforts in behind but a few not so good and he was only just the best at Punchestown after. I really don’t think he’s unstoppable but he travels and jumps well, looks very professional and has been there and done it on the biggest stage. Price is the only thing that makes me try to look elsewhere but he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner of the curtain raiser.
FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU
An 8yo now and a second season novice but for all that he’s an 8yo he’s only had 7 spins under rules and 3 of those came in Bumpers back in the 19/20 season. My take on a horse like this is that while he’s been impressive enough you wouldn’t expect the upward curve to be as sharp or as long lasting as a genuine novice and a younger horse. Lots to like as an Albert Bartlett prospect though and the top price of 16/1 definitely wouldn’t be there should he line up in March. Has raced exclusively right handed though so as much as you’d say he could run well, you’d have as many reason to think he’s not a Festival winner in waiting but he could have an interesting Handicap mark of just 136 in Ireland given he’s posted two RPR’s higher than that the last twice and his most recent was a 152 number (The same as Facile Vega’s Grade 1 win at Christmas).
GAELIC WARRIOR
I’ve long got over this horse being beat off 129 at The Festival last year because ultimately he did a lot wrong and now a second season novice he’s entitled to have improved and clearly he has. He might have won in a canter on debut when sent of 1/12 so it’s not the easiest form to delve into but the 3rd was beaten the same distance next time out in a handicap by a 99 rated horse in receipt of a stone and the 4th was beaten 97l in a Mares Maiden. Long and short with this horse is that it’s very hard to believe he’s progressed into a genuine Grade 1 horse and the form of that Boodles has been knocked with Brazil twice beaten this season, and posting a highest RPR of just 140 while winning a Grade 3 getting almost a stone from the second who was being sent chasing after. Tread carefully with this one, and don’t forget how he jumped at Cheltenham, right throughout.
GRANGECLARE WEST
Decent point winner although the runner up that day is a 115 rated hurdler and was a ready bumper winner back in May 2021 beating a now 145 hurdler by 9 lengths. 7yo now and missed last season with a setback but made a very lasting impression on hurdles bow back in November at Navan. All runs have come on soft and really didn’t have much to beat in that Maiden hurdle so we’ll learn more in the Lawlor Of Naas and while stats are there to be broken as Appreciate It showed when winning the Supreme as a 7yo, French Holly was the last 7yo winner of the Ballymore back in 1998 and this lad doesn’t have a whole host of experience just yet (French Holly had 4 hurdles runs and 5 bumper runs over two seasons, Appreciate It had 2 points, 4 bumper runs and 3 hurdle races prior to his Supreme) so the top price of 8/1 looks plenty short to me and he’s one I think can run well but I don’t expect to win.
HERMES ALLEN
Has been very impressive in each of his three hurdle starts this season and probably most impressive at Cheltenham when forcing the issue from the front in The Hyde Novices’ hurdle. Backed that up with an ultra-impressive Challow Hurdle win which stacks up form wise if you look at those in behind given the Mare in second may have been underestimated as was the third. Clearly goes on any ground, has the course experience and looks an utter professional given that he’s able to do as he’s asked from the front and not because he’s keen, but because he’s listening to Harry Cobden. Deserved favourite for The Ballymore despite the Challow Hurdle record not producing a Festival winner in that race, but plenty have gone close enough and turned into really good horses, so again stats are there to be broken and he can be judged on what he’s done, which is by far the stand out form this season on either side of the sea.
HIDDENVALLEY LAKE
6yo with Henry De Bromhead who is now 2 from 2 under rules including a Grade 3 which came last time out. Bred to stay which he’s proven already and could end up following Minella Indo‘s route toward a tilt at the Albert Bartlett so I think we’ll learn more next time out.
HIGH DEFINITION
One time Derby favourite who survived a drift to win on hurdling debut this Christmas but I’m not convinced he’s beaten anything noteworthy in doing so. Did get the job done though and another that we’ll learn more about next time I feel. He’s a 20/1 poke for the Supreme so should he progress, that price would contract but he did jump right which is always a big negative for a Cheltenham Festival hope.
IL ETAIT TEMPS
Was a reasonable Juvenile but a winless one and was sold to a racing syndicate which typically isn’t the best sign. He won nicely on debut in a race where he was entitled to and although he ran well behind Facile Vega he’s shown that he’s not up there with the top table although I do think he’ll run in the Supreme so might tempt backers looking for cover in the race. He’s not for me and I think he’ll have his moment in the spotlight somewhere else.
INTHEPOCKET
Tricky horse to weigh up entirely because I’m not sure he really gave his all in the finish the last day which means he could be upgraded in terms of ability, but the attitude if true would be a big worry. Judging solely on what we’ve seen he looks a nice horse who stays well so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go out in trip this season. At the moment I’ve not seen enough to think he’s up to landing a Grade 1 though.
IRISH POINT
Eye-catching winner on debut at Cork and in fairness ran a mighty race in defeat in the Royal Bond. Typically you don’t want a horse beaten if they’re to win a Novice Hurdle at The Festival so that’s a knock to him and he would need to improve again but he looks like he is progressive. Top Price 20/1 for the Supreme vs the 6/1 that Marine Nationale is (the winner of that Royal Bond by a head) seems a bit too large a gap and he might just be better again on spring ground so he’s interesting enough for sure.
JUPITER DU GITE
Very much an unexpected winner on New Years Eve when scoring at 66/1 but given this horse is a Juvenile he’s thrown himself into the Triumph picture for sure. Of course we’ll learn more next time out because I can’t see him heading straight to The Festival but I don’t think he beat anything in the field so quotes of 12 and 14/1 for The Festival seem awfully short. Loose line through Klitschko when behind Jaramillo who is now rated 112 and beaten 53 lengths on handicap debut off that mark.
LIBERTY DANCE
Really liked this mare in bumpers and she narrowly lost out at the Dublin Racing Festival when sent off a reasonable price which to me was too big. Was well beaten on hurdle debut this season which is hard to get out of my mind but has twice won nicely since but I do think she’s limited in terms of her ability in better company so she’s one I’d be interested in more for a Handicap than a Graded race, but she’s uncomplicated and will do as she’s asked in a race which is an attractive trait.
LOSSIEMOUTH
Big talking horse over the summer and she’s done everything asked of her in two Graded races this season. Does leave me with the impression that she’s not bullet proof despite Willies confidence in her after the Knight Frank win but there’s no juvenile who has achieved more than her yet so she’s a worthy favourite. I do wonder if something can progress beyond her so I hope she runs in the Spring Juvenile so we can at least confirm the pecking order in Ireland, because as it stands, I don’t think I’ve seen anything there who can beat her yet.
LUCCIA
Impressive bumper mare and even more impressive when landing a Class 1 Mares hurdle on his first spin over obstacles. She’s favourite for the Tolworth this weekend and she’ll carry a penalty in The Mares Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham but she’s a fair enough price and that will only contract should she win on Saturday. Owner has commented he would like a supreme runner but Nicky Henderson seems likely to go for the Mares race. I suppose when push comes to shove though, they might look at her mares allowance in the Supreme vs the weight she gives away in the Mares Novice but I still think she runs in and wins the latter.
MARINE NATIONALE
Unbeaten in bumpers and now two from two over hurdles he does look like a proper horse. The Royal Bond left me feeling like he’s short of a proper Festival Grade 1 though so that will remain in my mind now as he heads straight to The Supreme. Potentially capable but wouldn’t want to back him at the price he is now, especially when it’s a market full of concessions come race week.
SCRIPTWRITER
2 from two over hurdles and even won an AW race in December after missing The Finale at Chepstow by accounts of the ground. Looks one of the best of the British and the trainer and jockey keep saying he’s better than Knight Salute who landed the Grade 1 Juvenile in a dead-heat last season. 16/1 seems an OK price based on what he’s achieved though considering he’s looks a little inexperienced which he’ll need to improve upon for the Spring but if doing so will bring more from him.
ZARAK THE BRAVE
Was Paul’s choice in the Knight Frank when sent off favourite vs Lossiemouth but was well held really. Suppose the interesting thing is that they didn’t expect what he did on debut so maybe he’s not quite straightforward and didn’t show his all at Christmas. Not completely ruled out for reversing the form and he’s 14/1 for March vs the 6/4 of Lossiemouth so while it would take some leap of faith in him, the price accounts for that.