Last season, Winter Fog struck up a form run of 32334 in Grade 1 hurdles. Some veterans still have it.
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Joe BloGGs – The Jumps Journal Returns
The GG Jumps Journal gives its thoughts on subjects of the day, or points of interest from the week just gone. This was our flagship article ahead of the Cheltenham Festival; we don’t take ourselves too seriously.
GG Jumps Journal – Predicting the 2025 Cheltenham Festival
Come on, we’ve seen this before, we all know what’s going to happen. Predicting the Cheltenham Festival from a betting perspective is nigh on impossible for everyone but the shrewdest punters. However, in truth, the Greatest Show On Turf gives us plenty of recurring storylines year on year. Often, it is why we love the…
Wed 05 Mar 2025Today, though, a more serious matter at hand.
Our introduction references Winter Fog’s terrifically consistent 2024/25 jumps season. However, for every Winter Fog, and there are a few of those upcoming, there is a shadow of former lights. One who ran on Tuesday really stuck out to me, as Diol Ker, an 11-year-old formerly of Noel Meade and Gordon Elliott, was pulled up at Ffos Las. It was his fourth such non-completion in eight starts, while he has been the last to finish in two of his other four.
So, why does the case of Diol Ker matter? After all, 11 is not even close to the oldest age at which a National Hunt horse has competed this season: that would be Robin De Roost, 15 going on 16 for Gerard Keane in Ireland.
The reason is that Robin De Roost reached a career high jumps mark of 102 in the summer of 2018 and won as recently as June 2024. He is now 30lb below that rating, but he has never competed towards the upper echelons of the sport and races at a similar level at which he always has. Diol Ker, on the other hand, raced off 104 on Tuesday, higher than Robin De Roost ever reached, yet that was a full 48lb below his peak.
At his best, this was a horse who was able to beat Monkfish in a maiden hurdle and finish second in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park. After going so close to claiming Graded honours which would forever elude him, he was rated 152 and finished ninth in Aintree’s Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle behind Thyme Hill.
The following season, he won the Leinster National at Naas the weekend before the Cheltenham Festival and in December 2022, he was second in the ever-competitive Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. That was off a rating of 145, heights of which are a far cry from where he finds himself now.
His highest finish in 19 subsequent races is fifth and he last went off a single-figure price to win the start before the Paddy Power Chase. Three years of 10/1 SPs and above and over a year now of hardly raising a gallop since joining Williams.
It is important to note that this is not a criticism of training methods, nor of racing horses where there is no condition prohibiting their competition. My argument stems from the absence of a rule to protect the sport from negative optics and allow horses a necessary retirement once racing competition is beyond them.
Perhaps if Diol Ker falls to a mark of 72 a la our avian friend of the roost, he could compete. But does a horse who once flew extremely close to the summit owe the sport that?
A 40lb rule for horses to race over jumps would be a worthwhile introduction. Flexibility would be required, especially in Ireland where hurdling and chase ratings are not systematically aligned, but it would shield the sport from one of its greatest ills: non-competition. 40lb is well beyond the limit to which trainers may try and get their older stagers well-handicapped, but strict enough to draw a line.
Diol Ker would be one to have crossed the line, while brief research reveals fellow 11-year-old Up The Straight has also slipped below the mark (139 down to 98). Both Topofthecotswolds, and the 12-year-old Cap Du Nord are on the periphery having also achieved prevalence over obstacles.
Raging against the dying of the light is noble in sport, but simply delaying it gradually does no good to anyone. Let every horse enjoy a farewell that respects them at their best, not when a shadow of their former selves.
Jumps Journal Tip for the Weekend
Having been second in the equivalent contest 12 months ago, Issar d’Airy will return off just 10st in the Grundon Waste Management Handicap Chase at 2.05pm at Ascot on Saturday. He is just 1lb higher in the weights and 6lb better off with the winner Martator, while his effort here last season shows he can go well fresh. He returns in stronger form than that winner and can take advantage of his featherweight for the Moores.