In a brand new segment, GG Editor Tom Aldridge has studied Thursday’s cards to give his each-way Lucky 15 selections.
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Zamond (12.42 Sedgefield)
Trainer Donald McCain has an impressive 41% strike-rate this season when sending horses over hurdles at Sedgefield, and I like the chances of his runner ZAMOND in the opener on their card on Thursday. His record over this trip reads 131, and he also finished a good fourth in a class 2 over slightly further at Musselburgh back in March, which is some of the best form on offer here.
He did well to finish third in his most recent start at Stratford, where he gave weight to all but one and only finished just over a length off the eventual winner. He remains on the same mark here and with jockey Theo Gillard taking off a valuable 3lb, he looks to have a fantastic chance of winning the opener.
Joie De Vivre (2.20 Sedgefield)
Martin Todhunter has had an excellent start to the NH season, recording a 25% strike rate from his 16 runners so far. He also has a 58% place-rate with his horses over fences, and has had more chase winners at Sedgefield than any other course over the past five years. This year, from the four horses he’s sent over fences there, he’s had three winners and a third, so it certainly pays to keep an eye on his chasers there. He has one horse entered at Sedgefield tomorrow – JOIE DE VIVRE, who makes her chase debut.
She’s been running well in her recent races, winning one and placing in the other three of her last four races. Two of those came on the flat, but her most recent run came over hurdles when third at Carlisle. That form was boosted when the winner Wor Verge ran out a comfortable winner of a better race last weekend. With the trainer’s fantastic record at Sedgefield (particularly with his chasers), I’m expecting a big run on debut from Joie De Vivre and expect her to finish in the places at a minimum.
Annual Invictus (3.05 Newbury)
The good ground might find a few of these out here, but not ANNUAL INVICTUS. The 7YO has won two of his three races on good ground, and has won over this trip previously (albeit in a point-to-point. His most recent effort over this trip came in the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase, where it was unsuitably soft ground and he still ran well to finish third.
He has run well fresh in the past – when returning from a break of 150+ days his record reads 122, so the fact he hasn’t been seen since May is more of a positive than a negative. Both trainer Chris Gordon and jockey Tom Cannon have been in excellent form in the past couple of weeks, and when teaming up they have an impressive 48% strike-rate this season. They have an excellent chance of improving that record with Annual Invictus, who I’m hoping can land this and hopefully go on to the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March next year.
Lock’s Corner (4.19 Ludlow)
It can often pay to side with the better jockeys in these amateur jockey races, but it does often help to have a good horse for the jockey! With both of those taken into consideration, I think LOCK’S CORNER has an excellent chance in the final race at Ludlow on Thursday.
If you first look at the jockey bookings, the market leader Chives has Freddie Mitchell on board, who is yet to win a race after 18 attempts. Lock’s Corner has Jonjo O’Neill’s youngest son AJ O’Neill on board, who has already ridden four winners from his seven rides over hurdles – his 7lb claim on here is a huge positive to my selection’s chances.
Lock’s Corner may be more of a chaser these days, but he won’t mind reverting to the smaller obstacles here. He’s won two of his last three races over hurdles, where he was last rated 130. Here, he runs off a mark of 113, which he’s more than capable of winning off. He disappointed on his most recent run over fences, but before that he was just touched off by On Springs, who won again next time out. I’m happy to put a line through his most recent run and take a chance that it was just an off day for him.
Chives is a big danger and is certainly the one to beat, but considering the jockey’s allowance he is giving Lock’s Corner 7lb here and there shouldn’t be such a difference in price between them. For that reason, I’m happy to take a chance on the Jonjo O’Neill runner, and hope young AJ O’Neill can continue his excellent start to his career.
Thursday’s Lucky 15 Selections
| 12.42 Sedgefield | Zamond |
| 2.20 Sedgefield | Joie De Vivre |
| 3.05 Newbury | Annual Invictus |
| 4.19 Ludlow | Lock’s Corner |
(All bets settled at SP, profit/loss calculated on a 50p E/W Lucky 15 level stake)
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