It is the big day – the 2013 Grand National gets under way at 4.15 and GG.COM has all you need to hopefully find the first past the post. The world is watching, there are some cracking supporting races on the card beforehand; so without further ado, lets try find some winners!
View Racecard: 1.45 The John Smith’s Mersey Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) (2m4f)
Dodging Bullets was disappointing in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham but is reported to have bled from the nose and that is a valid excuse for his below par effort. Up And Go is a very smart novice but provided Paul Nicholls has successfully got this horse back on track he should get back to winning ways here in the opener.
View Racecard: 2.15 The John Smith’s Maghull Novices Steeple Chase (Grade 1) (2m)
Overturn returns and re-opposes Baily Green who finished ahead of him in the Arkle. On the likely ground and at this more suitable track, it is unlikely he’ll do so again and Donald McCain’s popular 9yo can resume winning ways. Alderwood is respected but would have had a hard race last time out and this represents a stiff ask.
The interesting horse E/w is Sire De Grugy. A formerly top notch handicap hurdler, he has been brought along quietly by Gary Moore and turns up here as something of a dark horse. His form over fences is solid, having defeated Cantlow and finished just 2L behind Thursday’s Grade 1 winning Captain Conan earlier in the season. Sire De Grugy is an imposing 7yo and provided his jumping holds sway, I’ll take him to be bang on the premises at the business end.
View Racecard: 2.50 The John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (3m 1/2f)
The absence of Big Bucks here is a huge loss to the race, of that there is no question. All being well we’ll see the great stayer return to action next season.
Twelve horses face the World Hurdle winner Solwhit in this seemingly open contest below the market front pair. Charles Byrnes’ fantastic 9yo will be fiendishly difficult to beat here though at a course where he took the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle back in 2009. All of his old flare is still there and now that we know he stays three miles, he is a worthy and solid favourite.
Bear’s Affair is quite an interesting youngster and he could be of each-way interest amongst the possible dangers to Solwhit, which obviously includes Celestial Halo who without an error at the last flight at Cheltenham, would have finished closer.
View Racecard: 3.25 The John Smith’s Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed) (3m1f)
As if the Grand National wasn’t hard enough to decipher, we have an 18-runner handicap to ease us in to a bustling and competitive contest in this 3m1f handicap chase. Cantlow is many peoples idea of a handicap plot horse and he by-passed Cheltenham for here and should definitely go very well from Paul Webber, AP McCoy and JP McManus.
The Phillip Hobbs trained pair, Duke Of Lucca and Planet Of Sounds, should definitely catch the eye for each way backers as they have plenty of experience and class for races such as this. Lurking down the bottom of the weight is the Gordon Elliot trained Russian War, who has not been seen since the summer of last year when winning at Uttoxeter. He has a bit to find in this company but his trainer isn’t in the habit of travelling to big meetings with no-hopers.
Full Racecard: 4.15 The John Smith’s GRAND NATIONAL Steeple Chase (Grade 3) (Ch4) 4m4f
To help narrow the field, there are some strong trends to take into accounts for the Grand National:
Weight– The handicap has been more compressed in recent years giving those with bigger weights more of a chance. Nonetheless, only one horse has carried more than 11st4lb since 1977 and that was last year’s winner Neptune Collonges.
Class– The race tends to go the way of horses who have ran well in quality races. So watch out for those that have won or been placed in Class 1 races. 10 out of last 11 winners had won a Class 1 chase in their career, the exception came second.
Form– More than one win that season by any horse is a negative, with 11/11 renewals upholding that stat. You also want a horse that has run in the last 3-7 weeks and are looking for a horse that has had between 3-6 runs that season.
Age – An important factor and experience counts. 7yos are a big no-no historically. And generally, the 9-12 bracket performs best but don’t rule out 8yos either.
Other Factors – Horses wearing headgear generally perform badly in this race so watch out for those. French–breds have bucked the trend in recent season with Mon Mome and Neptune Collonges winning, but on the whole Irish and British bred horses perform better.
Form or experience over the national course fences isn’t a positive or a negative really. Stamina is key, with all winners over the last 10 years having won over 3 miles or more at some stage in their career.
GG.COM Shortlist
Cappa Bleu NAP ran a blinder in this last year and the ground this time around will be more to his liking. He ran a great trial last time out and should go well at around 12/1.
Roberto Goldback NB ticks nearly all the boxes for Henderson and Geraghty. He has a touch of class and has enjoyed the correct sort of build-up to this race. The worry is his big weight of 11st 6lb but that may not be as big a worry this year. At 33/1 he is respected and of each-way interest.
Balthazar King is a fabulous jumper and if in the mood, he possesses a great profile for this race and could go well for team Hobbs/Johnson at odds of 20/1.
Chicago Grey It is impossible to over-look the credentials of this grey. If he can get into a rhythm jumping he could sneak into this late-on and definitely make his presence felt. 14/1 is a fair reflection of his very legitimate chance.
Joncol – A two time Grade 1 winner who stays, has a low weight considering that, he’s the right age and is available to back at 50/1. This is the big horse – Joncol. He is up against it but you couldn’t rule out a big run from him.
What A Friend – Under Sam Thomas this is another formerly top-class three mile chaser that could run a massive race at 66/1 in couple of places. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, what a story it would be if his wonderfully named horse could land the world’s most famous race.
Click on the Racecard link in bold above to view the full 40 runners on GG.COM and check the best prices for your selections!
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