We’re in for a bumper Sunday of racing at the Curragh as it plays host to the second day of the Irish Champions Festival, with a total of FOUR Group 1’s on the card:
- Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Flying Five Stakes (2.55pm)
- Moyglare Stud Stakes (3.25pm)
- Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (4.00pm)
- Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (4.35pm)
GG editor Tom Aldridge is on hand to look at some of the key trends for each of the Group 1’s, before giving his verdict on who he’s backing to win them.
*Odds Correct At Time Of Posting – 12:40pm Friday 8th September*
Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Flying Fives Stakes (2.55pm)
Key Trends From The Past 10 Renewals
- Six winners aged 3-4 (Only one winner aged 6+ in that time).
- Five winners were sent off as favourite or joint-favourite.
- Seven winners were drawn in single-figure stalls.
- Equal scores for UK/Irish trained (5 winners each).
- No horse has won back-to-back renewals in that time (the last one to do so was Benbaun, who won three in a row between 2005-2007).
Preview
This looks to be a straight match between HIGHFIELD PRINCESS and Bradsell, and it’s the former who gets my vote this time. The duo have met twice in recent weeks, with Bradsell winning in the King’s Stand Stakes, before Highfield Princess reversed that form when chasing home Live In The Dream in the Nunthorpe Stakes last month. John Quinn’s star mare is 1lb better off with her rival now compared to the Nunthorpe Stakes so I see no reason why that form should reverse here. She doesn’t suit a lot of the trends, considering she’s a 6YO and returning winners of the race don’t have the best record of following up, but she’s the class horse in the race and I’m confident she’ll prove that.
With ten runners declared it’s worth throwing up an E/W selection too, and I think we could see a much better performance from AESOP’S FABLES, having disappointed in the Nunthorpe last time out. He was completely drawn out of it in stall 16 (first five home were drawn 3-9) and raced on the wrong side of the track, so I’m willing to forgive that run. Prior to that, he finished 3 lengths behind Shaquille over 6f at Newbury, and that one has since franked the form by winning two Group 1’s (probably will be three after Saturday’s Haydock Sprint Cup!). He’s won at the Curragh before and I still think this trip will suit, so I’m willing to give him a chance at a big price.
SELECTIONS
- WIN – HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (11/8 generally)
- E/W – AESOP’S FABLES (50/1 William Hill, 33/1 generally)
Moyglare Stud Stakes (3.25pm)
Key Trends From The Past 10 Renewals
- Six of the 10 winners were drawn in either stall 8 or 10.
- A P O’Brien is the leading trainer in the race and has won three of the last eight renewals.
- Just two winning favourites in the last 10 years.
- Nine of the winners won at single-figure odds (exception being Intricately in 2016, who won at 25/1)
- Ryan Moore has been on board two of the last four winners.
Preview
There may have only been two winning favourites in the last 10 renewals, but it’s difficult to see Vespertilio reversing form with YLANG YLANG, who looks to be the latest star of the A P O’Brien yard. She’s made all to win both her races relatively comfortably to date, and the aformentioned Vespertilio has boosted the form by winning the Group 2 Debutante Stakes next time out. The Frankel filly looks an exciting prospect and I can’t wait to see what she’s capable of next season, hopefully returning as an unbeaten filly!
For an E/W selection, Vespertilio is a solid option but at a slightly bigger price I like FALLEN ANGEL for Karl Burke. She readily finished clear of Soprano when winning the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket last month, and she looks a talented filly with a big future ahead. The fifth home Carolina Reaper has since boosted the form by winning a Group 3 in Germany, whilst the runner-up Soprano wasn’t beaten far when third in the Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes at Salisbury earlier this week. The ground is in her favour and I expect her to go well at a bit of a price.
SELECTIONS
- WIN – YLANG YLANG (10/11 generally)
- E/W – FALLEN ANGEL (9/1 generally)
Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (4.00pm)
Key Trends From The Past 10 Renewals
- Favourites have won six of the last 10 renewals, but haven’t won the most recent three.
- A P O’Brien + Charlie Appleby have won six of the last ten runnings, with Charlie Appleby winning three of the last five.
- Five of the ten winners came into the race unbeaten.
- Nine of the ten winners had won over the distance previously.
- All six winners who had raced at the Curragh previously had won at the course.
Preview
There’s every chance Bucanero Fuerte could improve for the step up in trip, but considering nine of the last ten winners had won over 7f previously, I can’t be backing him. Perhaps more importantly, I simply can’t see past CITY OF TROY. A P O’Brien’s unbeaten colt absolutely demolished the field when bolting up in the Superlative Stakes last time out, and considering he had the runner-up Haatem over six lengths behind (who won a G2 next time out), that is an impressive piece of form. It might be a boring pick but I just don’t see him losing!
SELECTION
- WIN – CITY OF TROY (10/11 Paddy Power + Betfair, 5/6 generally)
Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (4.35pm)
Key Trends From The Past 10 Renewals
- A P O’Brien has won four of the last ten renewals, including last year with Kyprios.
- The last five winners were aged 3-4 (the last three were all 4YO’s).
- Only four winners went off as favourite (all four were trained by A P O’Brien).
- Seven of the ten winners were rated 113+.
- 9 of the 10 winners had raced over the distance previously, and 8 of the 10 had won over the trip (exceptions being Brown Panther in 2014 + Search For A Song in 2019).
Preview
Another race that A P O’Brien looks set to dominate, with KYPRIOS the class act in here. Having won all six of his races last season (including FOUR Group 1’s), there’s little to suggest he will stop the winning run here. This isn’t an overly strong renewal of the Irish St Leger, with just four rivals taking him on, and provided he’s fully fit, he should take the world of beating. 2022 St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov doesn’t look quite as good this season, so I think the bigger challenge could come from Kyprios’ stablemate Emily Dickinson, but the ground isn’t in her favour and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she gets pulled out of the race. Both Dawn Rising and Yashin would need to improve considerably to be in the mix here, with both some way off the other trio on official ratings. I just struggle to see of them getting close to Kyprios, and I don’t think he even needs to be 100% fit to be up to winning this.
SELECTION
- WIN – KYPRIOS (6/4 Ladbrokes, 11/8 generally)
SELECTIONS
2:55pm Flying Five Stakes – HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (WIN – 11/8 generally) + AESOP’S FABLES (50/1 William Hill, 33/1 generally)
3.25pm Moyglare Stud Stakes – YLANG YLANG (WIN – 10/11 generally) + FALLEN ANGEL (E/W 9/1 generally)
4.00pm Vincent O’Brien National Stakes – CITY OF TROY (WIN – 10/11 Paddy Power + Betfair, 5/6 generally)
4.35pm Irish St Leger – KYPRIOS (WIN – 6/4 Ladbrokes, 11/8 generally)
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