The 157th running of the Irish Derby is this weekend and Auguste Rodin is a hot favourite to follow up his victory in the Epsom Derby in June. With his trainer A P O’Brien being the leading trainer in the race with 14 victories currently, it’s no surprise to see his runner an odds-on favourite to follow up his impressive Epsom victory.
However, historical data suggests that might not be the case!
The research was conducted by BoyleSports, as part of their Irish Derby Odds.
“Irish Derby favourite Auguste Rodin has just 2% chance to complete Derby double, according to historical data“
BoyleSports research predicts Auguste Rodin to finish 2nd at the Curragh
Aidan O’Brien is the master Flat trainer of his generation but even he might have his work cut out to get Auguste Rodin ready to complete an Epsom/Irish Derby double at the Curragh on Sunday.
Auguste Rodin was victorious in the Epsom Derby six weeks ago, sent off at 9/2 and winning by half a length from 66/1 outsider King Of Steel. The three-year-old could become just the fourth double Derby winner since 2003 this weekend, following in the footsteps of Camelot, Australia and Harzand – but Auguste Rodin has just a 2% chance to do that, according to historical data.
After analysing all 190 runners to take part in both the English and Irish Derby over the past 20 years, research by BoyleSports has shown that if Auguste Rodin were to become the fourth horse since 2003 to complete the Derby double, he’d be battling a 1.57% chance (3 out of 190 – implied probability of 62/1) to seal the historical triumph.
That said, of the six winners of the Epsom Derby since 2003 that have then gone on to the Curragh to race in the Irish Derby – three have won, two have finished second and one crossed the line fifth – averaging 2nd place, giving the Aidan O’Brien three-year-old a strong chance of placing. O’Brien has trained two of those double winners (Camelot and Australia) while Irish trainer Dermot Weld trained Harzand to double Derby delight in 2016.
| Epsom winners that ran in Irish Derby | Finishing position in Irish Derby (SP) |
| North Light (2004) | 2nd (8/11f) |
| Camelot (2012) | 1st (1/5f) |
| Ruler Of The World (2013) | 5th (4/5f) |
| Australia (2014) | 1st (1/8f) |
| Harzand (2016) | 1st (4/6f) |
| Anthony Van Dyck (2019) | 2nd (5/4f) |
2023 Irish Derby odds via BoyleSports
Auguste Rodin (1/3)
White Birch (9/2)
Sprewell (5/1)
Up And Under (10/1)
Knight To King (16/1)
Proud And Regal (20/1)
Adelaide River (33/1)
San Antonio (33/1)
Peking Opera (40/1)
Covent Garden (66/1)
Salt Bay (66/1)
*Odds correct at time of publishing – 12.45pm Thursday 29th June*
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