The Irish Derby could be one that goes down in history on Saturday. We have analysed the main stroylines below, alongisde Matchbook, who are offering Money Back As A Free Bet Up To £30.
Can Tuesday Beat The Boys?
The main story undeniably is the declaration of Tuesday by Aidan O’Brien. The filly will be looking to be the first of her sex to beat the boys in the Irish Derby since 1994.
In the intervening years since Balanchine’s success, only four fillies have tried and all have been well-beaten. That said, of those to have attempted it, only O’Brien’s own shock Oaks winner Qualify was arriving off the back of success at Epsom. Tuesday boasts better pedigree than all of them.
A sister to Minding, the multiple Group 1 winner for Ballydoyle in 2015 and 2016, she had already been placed in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas before sticking her head down where it counted in the Oaks. Though many thought runner-up Emily Upjohn was unlucky, Tuesday was also slightly slowly away and had to make her challenge on the far side of the field closest to the camber.
She clearly enjoyed the step up to 1m4f that day and should tough it out as well as any of her male counterparts. With Epsom third Nashwa having won the Prix De Diane since, the form is already demonstrably strong.
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Brits Seek Successive Victories
In tuesday’s opposition, Ralph Beckett and David Menuisier will be hoping to smuggle the trophy back across the Irish Sea for the second year in a row.
Hurricane Lane took the race for Charlie Appleby in 2021 and both British raiders are dangerous again this time around. Primary among that duo is Westover, for Beckett and substitute jockey Colin Keane.
Keane is the retained Juddmonte rider in Ireland and so takes over from Rob Hornby here. Westover was a 20/1 chance for the Derby at Epsom, but belied those odds to fly home in third having got absolutely no run on multiple occasions up the straight.
Hornby was left cursing that bad luck and there is no way Westover will start at even a quarter of the price he opened at last time. So striking was his finishing effort that he is already favourite for the St Leger, but there is every chance he would have frightened Desert Crown in the Derby with a bit of fortune. Given how special that rival is, that theory gives him obvious chances here.
Lionel, representing Menuisier, may have failed on his first two starts, but he got his head in front at the third attempt at Goodwood in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes. He needed every yard of that 1m3f trip, so should appreciate this extra furlong. A drop of rain would not go amiss either.
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O’Briens Jr In Dual-Pronged Attack
Both Joseph and Donnacha O’Brien hold chances of wrestling the prize away from their father here.
Joseph won this in 2018 with Latrobe and Hannibal Barca is a livewire each-way play here. He was initially trained by Brian Meehan in Britain, finishing fourth to Luxembourg in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster as a juvenile.
Switched to O’Brien, he won on stable debut in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes at this track over 1m2f. There still appeared to be a lot of freshness about him that day and all manner of improvement could be forthcoming with that run under his belt. His half-brother Fledged won up to 1m6f, so there is a chance he will stay too.
Donnacha, meanwhile, trains Piz Badile, who was quietly fancied for Epsom Derby success. However, the son of Ulysses did not appear in love with the track.
He had previously been a very gutsy winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown to set up that Derby tilt and it may just be that he bounces back significantly returned to home territory. Having been jocked off for Frankie Dettori, Gavin Ryan is back on and will be intent on proving a point.
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Can Outsiders Claim Boundless Glory?
With 14/1 and 33/1 winners in the last five years, there is plenty of hope for those towards the bottom of the market.
Paddy Twomey’s French Claim was a rampant winner on his return at Cork. The son of 2012 2000 Guineas runner-up French Fifteen cruised to a nine-length success that day. Though he was then a well-held third behind Stone Age at Leopardstown, he could easily be better reverting to the front-running tactics which served him so well before. Connections may take inspiration from 2019 winner Sovereign, who blitzed clear in front.
Jim Bolger will be seeking a third success in the race after St Jovite (1992) and Trading Leather (2013). Boundless Ocean is a far greater price than either of those, having won just once in eight starts. However, five of those races have been at Listed level and above and only once has he been beaten by more than 2¾ lengths (in the 2000 Guineas). If learning to race less keenly than when runner-up over 1m4f last time, he could run well.
Last but not least is Glory Daze for Andy Oliver. After finding his feet in tough company as a juvenile, he was an easy winner of a Curragh maiden before being runner-up to Stone Age in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. On breeding even 1m would be too far, but on the eye his best trip could easily be in the middle distances, so while he was down the field at Epsom, he is worth his place in the lineup.
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Verdict
Both the Oaks and Derby at Epsom looked to be high-class renewals. With more luck in running, WESTOVER would have given a potential superstar in Desert Crown a lot to think about, so he still gets the verdict. However, there is little to count Tuesday out on, as the Oaks form was given a big boost by Nashwa in France. Hannibal Barca could easily be a danger if he stays, while watch out for French Claim if he gets loose on the front end.
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