The Group 2 Dubai Joel Stakes is the 2nd of two Group 2’s on the card at Newmarket on Friday, and has been won by some nice types in previous years, including Kameko in 2020. Mutasaabeq won the contest last year, and he is looking to retain his crown in the race this year.
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through all six runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Charles Hills’ MUTASAABEQ make all the running to win – He’s back again this year in a bid to retain his crown:
Key Trends
- 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older.
- 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket, 6 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newmarket.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 8 furlongs, 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 8 furlongs.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 6 previous flat runs, 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous flat wins.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 111 or higher.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. MUTASAABEQ
(Charles Hills/Jim Crowley)
A very impressive winner of this race last year, he made all to pull clear of El Drama in 2nd to win by a little under a length, producing a career best effort to which hasn’t been matched as yet, so he will look to do the same in the contest this year. He doesn’t exactly arrive into this race in the same vein of form as last season, although he was a Group 2 winner at Newmarket on seasonal re-appearance, which got him a career high rating of 120. He has since been a little out of form for connections, with a 5th in the Lockinge, last but one in the Queen Anne and a 7th in the City Of York Stakes last time out back at Group 2 level. But as he shown last year, the smaller fields will more than suit his running style, and he could be given an easy time of things at the front like this time last year and earlier on this season, but he does need to bounce back to some sort of 120 form that he shown earlier on this season.
2. CHINDIT
(Richard Hannon/Pat Dobbs)
The in-form horse heading into this contest, Richard Hannon’s little stable star has been quite busy lately, operating at a decent level, mopping up in some Group 3 and Listed class races. He is a multiple Group 2 winner previously, and although he hasn’t won at this level since September 2020, he has still been running in black type races since. This season includes a Listed success at Ascot in May, a venue he does so well at, before a very good 2nd in the Lockinge, and a 3rd in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury in August. Since those decent efforts in defeat, he has won the Group 3 Superior Mile at Haydock, and the Listed Fortune Stakes at Sandown last time, just 9 days before the Joel Stakes on Friday. He has been busy lately, so that could come back to bite him, but I feel he thrives off being busy and is as versatile as they can be on ground conditions, with wins on good and soft ground recently. He is very much the in-form horse heading into this, and still clearly loves his racing.
3. MALJOOM
(William Haggas/Tom Marquand)
Now the Haggas trained horse is the real unknown quantity heading into this contest, the very lightly raced son of Caravaggio has only had the the four runs so far, he does have the win strike rate of 75% however, winning three of his four starts. Unseen as a 2yo, he won nicely on his debut as a 3yo at Doncaster, before winning at Kempton then going on to win the German 2000 Guineas beating the 2nd placed horse by just under 2 lengths. He was then pitched straight into the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last season, and was probably a shade unlucky not to finish closer to the winner, after being denied a clear run in a very crucial stage and eventually finishing 4th only beaten by half a length, so that was quite an eye catching run and this horse really stepped into many people’s tracker for the season ahead. He unfortunately hasn’t been seen since with a few niggling issues at home, so he does have a 472 break to content with, but I feel connections wouldn’t have been persistent with him if they feel he didn’t have more to offer, and the fact he is still in training shows there is something at home. His rating is very similar to these, and obviously he could be the big improver out of these, but there are question marks on how long he has been off the track for, but no matter how he gets on in this, he is one to keep an eye on for Champions Day potentially.
4. MIGHTY ULYSSES
(John & Thady Gosden/Oisin Murphy)
The first of two runners in this contest for the Gosden team, Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride the son of Ulysses. Another one who is fairly lightly raced, just having the 9 starts to his name so far, the 4yo colt arrives into this race off the back of a decent win in a Group 3 contest at Salisbury last time, where he dead-heated with Embesto, running on well in the final furlong but just couldn’t deny his dead heat rival on the line. Previous wins include a Listed win at Newmarket, and a Novice win at Newmarket, with the Listed victory being on the July course, so that will very much play into his strengths. I just feel there are one or two horses in this race who might be better than him, as his limitations seem to lie at the Listed/Group 3 mark, which was shown when he was well beaten in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot, finishing a 9 length 5th of 8 runners.
5. REGAL REALITY
(Sir Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore)
The old boy heading into this race, he is the current outsider of the field although not far off most of these in the markets. Once a very classy individual rated as high as 120, which on his peak form really is better than what most of these have shown, but that rating was back in October 2019, some four years ago. He has since been running quite well, winning a Group 3 contest at Epsom in June, he has only been mixing it up in Listed company lately, and his limitations do probably lie there. Although a very classy animal on his day a few years back, he would have probably beat these if he was still in that kind of form, but the aging legs are slightly starting to catch up with him now, but the fact he is still in training at 8, might suggest there is plenty of life in the old boy yet, Ryan Moore booked up is a very good booking for connections.
6. EPICTETUS
(John & Thady Gosden/Frankie Dettori)
The second of two runners for the Gosden team, he is the youngster of the party, being the only 3yo runner in the contest this year, therefore he gets a little bit of weight from the older boys. The previous statistic don’t particularly favour the younger horses, although three out of the last 12 winners have been 3yo’s, this race is usually won by the older more battle hardened type. A winner at Listed level on his seasonal debut in May, he was then spoken about as a potential Derby type, but things didn’t particularly pan out that way and he has disappointed at the higher level this season. He was a Listed winner over the Mile in the mud at Goodwood, with Nostrum back in 3rd, which could be decent firm, but the 3yo Colt’s haven’t exactly been top quality this season so perhaps Nostrum isn’t as good as we all first thought. He isnt far off these on ratings, and was the ride Frankie picked to jump on, so that could mean something as Frankie tries to win every last big race possible before he retires at the end of the season.
Big-Race Verdict
Although this is quite a decent contest to kick start the weekend, it is hard to gauge a few of the other runners and how they will do, Maljoom has been off the track for ages, Chindit has been very busy lately and I just feel the others might not be good enough to win a contest of this nature, well their previous form shows that at least. Therefore the small field will very much suit Mutasaabeq, who won this race against just five other rivals last season. He made all that day, and I can see him doing the same here, given a easy time of things at the front end before pulling clear to win, in conditions that currently suit him. I just feel this race could quite easily set up for him, and although his form lately hasn’t been anything near his best, he always seems to bounce back at this time of year. Last years winner is the one they all have to beat for me.
SELECTION: Mutasaabeq – To Win (10/3 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 2.18pm Wednesday 27th September*
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