The Juddmonte International is the first Group 1 run at the Ebor Meeting at York, and has been won by some stars of the game, including Australia, Roaring Lion and Ghaiyyath. Last year saw unbeaten superstar Baaeed make it a perfect 10/10 in his glittering career with an effortless display, running out an easy six and a half length winner.
This year we have another superstar lining up in Paddington, who has won his last seven races, including the four most recent at Group 1 level. A win for him would see trainer A P O’Brien become the most successful trainer in the races history!
GG editor Jake Russell is on hand to preview the race, looking at the key trends for the racing before running through the four runners and giving his expert verdict on who he’s backing to come out on top.
SkyBet have a fantastic offer for today – get 40/1 on Ryan Moore to ride a winner at the Ebor Festival! Simply click the image below to get the offer:
Last year’s renewal went the way of William Haggas’ superstar BAAEED, who made it a perfect 10/10 with a scintillating display on the Knavesmire:
Key Trends
- 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older.
- 6 of the last 12 winners were favourites, with 10 of the last 12 winners being top 3 in the betting.
- 4 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at York, 3 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at York.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 10/11 furlongs, 6 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 10/11 furlongs.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 120 or higher.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous Group 1 win.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season, 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous wins that season.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. MOSTAHDAF
(John & Thady Gosden/Frankie Dettori)
The highest rated runner in the field with a BHA Rating of 128, this was after his very impressive career performance at Royal Ascot last time. A 7 length fourth behind Equinox at Meydan in March, he then went on to win the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal Meeting, putting in by far a career best performance to beat Luxembourg by 4 lengths. He was sat at the back of the field that day, before making smooth headway with 3 furlongs to go, before pulling clear in the closing stages, really bouncing back to form. He is currently 3lb’s higher in the ratings than his main market rival Paddington, but does have to give him the usual 7lb’s age allowance, which will make this task all the more tricky for the Gosden trained horse, but he hasn’t been seen since his Royal Ascot performance, with Paddington having run twice since then, which could play to his strengths. With the added bonus of Frankie Dettori booked to ride, in his final season where he wants to win every Group 1 race possible. But Mostahdaf does have to put in by far a career best to beat the modern day Iron Horse, in what is a fascinating battle.
2. NASHWA
(John & Thady Gosden/Hollie Doyle)
The second of the Gosden runners, therefore they do have a very good hand in the contest this season, and although Nashwa does get weight off her stablemate, she has to give 4lb’s to Paddington due to age allowance. She has been in decent form this season however, placing or winning on pretty much all of her runs this season, including an almighty performance to win the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket by 5 lengths when stepping back down to the mile. She then stepped back up to the 10 furlongs last time out in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, where she finished a length 3rd behind Al Husn and Above The Curve, probably not being put in the best place possible but did finish with a late fluish to claim 3rd spot. However she has had a busy season already, with the four runs to her name, with the last one being just 20 days ago in testing conditions at Glorious Goodwood. She probably does seem to perform her best on the softer conditions, so she will be slightly up against it in this contest with the ground expected to be on the good side, but Hollie Doyle does get the best out of her, so it would be foolish to write her off in this contest, especially since she is a Group 1 winner this season.
3. PADDINGTON
(A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
Probably the most likeable horse this season, it’s not unknown by every racing fan how much this horse has improved throughout the season, running off a mark of 97 in a Handicap to start the season, before going on to land four Group 1’s in a row and earn the rating of 125, plus the accolade of the modern day iron horse. He is just such a likeable type who still seems to be improving with each run, beating the 3yo’s in both the Irish 2000 Guineas, and St James’s Palace Stakes at the Royal meeting, before going on to do battle with Emily Upjohn in the Coral Eclipse, and then win the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out beating his older rivals. He was ridden differently last time due to there being a lack of pace during the race, but he just shown a new attribute we didn’t know he had, where he made all, battled on gamely before pulling clear to win in the soggy conditions. The one slight concern for him is how busy he has been of late, with 6 runs already this season so far, the last one being just 20 or so days ago, in what was tricky racing conditions. However the yard are excellent at judging their horses, and if all wasn’t right at home he wouldn’t be risked. But he hasn’t earned the nickname of the modern day iron horse for no reason. Mostahdaf is a very worthy opponent, and probably the trickiest one he has come up against so far, given that he is rated higher than him, however Paddington does get 7lb’s from him due to the age allowance, making things be very much in his favour. It would be disappointing to see Paddington loose, but I personally can’t see him getting beat at any trip whether it be over the mile, 10 or 12 furlongs should he step up that far. It is just excellent to see him out again so soon, doing what these horses should be doing and that is strut their stuff in the top Group 1 contests, it’s just a shame we couldn’t see more rivals take him on.
SkyBet have a fantastic offer for today – get 40/1 on Ryan Moore to ride a winner at the Ebor Festival! Simply click the image below to get the offer:
4. THE FOXES
(Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy)
The lowest rated runner in the field who has had a productive season himself this term, winning the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York in May before going on to come 5th in the Derby at Epsom, and 2nd last time out in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, he does have a little bit to find on the ratings, given the fact he is only currently rated 113. I do think however that run last time was a very good one, and he was unlucky in running when firing home to late in the day after getting blocked off down the home straight, you have to be ridden a certain way in America to come away with the win, so on another day he could have easily landed that contest. He has to take his form to a whole new level to land a race of this nature, but no matter the result in this, I do feel there will be another nice prize for him going forward this season, and since he has shown he can handle the travel over to the US, it wouldn’t surprise me should we see him over there again in the near future, and he will be more the wiser in how to race over there now.
Verdict
Realistically it will be a match up between the main two market leaders of Paddington and Mostahdaf, and I personally just can’t see past Paddington landing his 5th Group 1 contest in a row. The step back up to 1m2f will more than suit, with the better conditions predicted also very much playing to his strengths, he is just such a likeable type who just seems the type to not get beat now he is very much in the grove, and given his age and the fact he really is lightly raced, I could see him improving again to win this. Plus the added advantage of the 7lb’s age allowance he gets from his market rival, means he does have it all in his favour again. I just can’t wait to see him carry his head high to victory again, racing needs a superstar like him, especially given his fun name who can really capture the imagination of racing fans, and prospective new racing fans going forward. Mostahdaf will be no role over however, and he arrives here fresher than Paddington with a 60 plus day break, off the back of a career best performance at Ascot last time, and it’s never wise to write off a horse ridden by Frankie Dettori.
SELECTION: Paddington – To Win (8/13 Best Priced) + Paddington and Mostahdaf – Straight Forecast
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.