The Sky Bet Ebor Festival returns to the Knavesmire on Wednesday afternoon with the brilliant Baaeed the headline act in the opening day’s feature race, the Juddmonte International Stakes. Our trends expert has delved into recent renewals and provided a few pointers to help narrow down the field. Check out the key stats below, alongside an exclusive customer offer from Sky Bet, who are offering up to £30 In Free Bets, when you sign up and place ANY bet.
Juddmonte International Stakes – York (15:35, Wednesday 17th August)
Last Ten Winners
2021 – Mishriff (John & Thady Gosden, David Egan) 9/4F
2020– Ghaiyyath (Charlie Appleby, William Buick) 11/8F
2019– Japan (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 5/1
2018 – Roaring Lion (John Gosden, Oisin Murphy) 3/1
2017 – Ulysses (Sir Michael Stoute, Jim Crowley) 4/1
2016 – Postponed (Roger Varian, Andrea Atzeni) 15/8F
2015 – Arabian Queen (David Elsworth, Silvestre De Sousa) 50/1
2014 – Australia (Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien) 8/13F
2013 – Declaration Of War (Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien) 7/1
2012 – Frankel (Sir Henry Cecil, Tom Queally) 1/10F
Key Trends
Rating
Class very much comes to the fore in the Juddmonte International Stakes, with 8 of the last 10 renewals going the way of runners rated 120 or higher – a tick in the box for supporters of Alenquer (120), Baaeed (128), Mishriff (124) and Native Trail (121) in this year’s contest.
Japan (117) in 2019 and the surprising 2015 winner Arabian Queen (109) are the only horses to buck this trend in recent seasons – a slight negative for followers of Dubai Honour (117), High Definition (119) and Sir Busker (115) on Wednesday afternoon.
Age
Surprisingly, there are no real standout performers when it comes to the age category, with 4yo and 5yo horses winning 6 of the last 10 runnings, whilst 3yo runners have also enjoyed their fair share of success in the Juddmonte International with 4 winners since 2014.
Sir Henry Cecil’s Twice Over (2011) remains the only 6yo to triumph in the Group 1 event and it’s extremely difficult to see this year’s sole representative Sir Busker adding his name to that particular list.
Distance
8 of the last 10 winners came into the Juddmonte International Stakes with at least one run under their belt over 1m2f, a stat that perhaps doesn’t bode well for this year’s red-hot favourite Baaeed as the superstar miler steps up to ten furlongs for the first time on Wednesday. However, it’s worth pointing out that Frankel routed his eight rivals by seven lengths on his first start over 1m2f back in 2012 and William Haggas’ unbeaten colt comes into this with a similar reputation.
Trainer
Between them, Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have won 5 of the last 10 renewals of the Juddmonte International Stakes. High Definition will bid to give Aidan O’Brien a record-breaking seventh victory in this Group 1 contest on Wednesday afternoon, while last year’s impressive winner Mishriff bids to become the fourth horse to land this illustrious prize in back-to-back years.
William Haggas will also be looking to write his name in the record books this week as he searches for his first ever win in the Juddmonte International Stakes after previously going close with Alenquer (2nd – 2021), Mohaafeth (4th – 2021), Mutakayyef (3rd – 2016) and Mukhadram (4th – 2014).
Class
Unsurprisingly, 9 of the last 10 winners had previously scored at Group 1 level prior to lining up on the Knavesmire. The only horse to buck that trend in recent times was David Elsworth’s 3yo Arabian Queen who had tasted success at Group 3 and Group 2 level before winning at the highest level in 2015. Sir Busker, High Definition and Dubai Honour will be looking to follow a similar path in this year’s renewal.
Betting
As you can see from the table of the past ten winners, this has certainly been a race to focus on the main market principles with five winning favourites in total and only one double-figure price winner. With that being the case, Native Trail, Mishriff and Baaeed are strongly fancied to fight out the finish on Wednesday.
Trends Verdict
Although Baaeed has the potential to be even better over further, the only runner to tick each box and meet every single trend is John & Thady Gosden’s MISHRIFF. Rated 124, the talented 5yo is a proven Group 1 winner over ten furlongs already and sits comfortably towards the top end of the betting. The Gosden yard has won two of the last four renewals, and last year’s winner is taken to add to that impressive tally on Wednesday afternoon.
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