Named after the five-time King George hero, the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase is run over exactly the same course and distance as the big race. It often proves a good trial for the following year’s King George, with Long Run, Bravemansgame and, would-have-been hero Might Bite (fell at the last) all winning the King George the year after running in the Kauto Star.
A deeply intriguing sextet take part this year, with Joe Napier detailing the chances of all six alongside a big race tip.
The 2022 renewal saw Grade 1 winning hurdler Thyme Hill stroll to a 15-length success for Tom O’Brien and Philip Hobbs.
Key Race Trends
- Just one favourite has prevailed in the last decade
- Four of the last five winners had run exactly twice over fences. The last seven winners had at least that amount of chase experience too
- Eight of the last nine winners were aged 6 or 7. The exception was Thyme Hill a year ago
- Only two of the last ten winners possessed a hurdles mark of 150 or higher
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Il Est Francais
Probably the most interesting runner taking part in a Boxing Day Grade 1, and no more suitable name for a French raider at Kempton. Noel George is extremely bullish about his five-year-old’s talent, which took him to a Grade 1 success as a four-year-old at Auteuil. That was over hurdles, a game at which he won five of his six starts, and he is unbeaten in two starts over fences this year too.
Weighing up that form in comparison to the hosts’ is difficult, though he has been sent of at 2/5 and 1/5 in his two chases, the latter in Listed company. Historically, French runners on this day have had tremendous success, mainly in the King George, so there is a precedent for his favouritism, and given the talk in the build-up, it would be no surprise if he is indeed a superstar.
Hermes Allen
13 wins in the King George haven’t quite been matched in this race by Paul Nicholls, although his five wins are as many as any other handler. Hermes Allen followed a similar novice hurdle route to his most recent winner, Bravemansgame, in having won the Challow Hurdle and been beaten in the Ballymore at Cheltenham.
Over fences, Nicholls was confident enough to debut him in a Grade 2 at Newbury, which he came through in grand style. His jumping was slightly unorthodox, as he appears to land steeply over his fences, but it was certainly swift enough. This step up in trip should pose few problems and he is likely to make a better chaser, so must make the shortlist.
Giovinco
Lucinda Russell already has Ahoy Senor and Corach Rambler among her staying ranks, and Giovinco already looks talented enough to join him. However, while that previous pair have both screamed stamina from the outset, there appears to be more than his fair share of class about this six—year-old.
He was a wide margin winner of a Perth Listed race as a novice hurdler in April, and despite an unseat on his chase debut, has looked a more natural chaser, certainly than Ahoy Senor. He won cosily at Aintree and then travelled strongly behind the strong staying Stay Away Fay when upped to Grade 2 level last time. Connections may have been frustrated by second that day, but this flatter 3m distance looks ideal.
Marble Sands
Another Listed novice hurdle winner, the grey Marble Sands has always struggled with the step up to Graded level. Since the start of last season, his form outside of Graded company reads 1111, while upped to that standard reads 5564.
Though 12 lengths behind Hermes Allen in Newbury’s John Francome Novices’ Chase, he travelled into the race well before a mistake at the second last ended his chances. However, he had won well on his fencing debut, and although that was over 2m, he has shaped in the past as though 3m could suit. He is probably the best of the outsiders.
Tightenourbelts
His sire Mahler has produced a number of horses at their best over 3m and further, so there is also hope that Tightenourbelts can improve for this trip. Elements of his novice hurdle form suggested as much, while he stayed on when beaten in the John Francome Novices’ Chase last time.
He pipped Marble Sands for third that day, and at first glance he would have the more obvious chance of improving for this trip. However, he was also beaten long before that rival, and still has bundles to find with the favourites.
Kilbeg King
Anthony Honeyball’s charge completed the unenviable task of being a British raider to win at Punchestown back in April, surging clear for success in a handicap hurdle off 126. More may have been expected since he began his chasing career, however.
He has been beaten a total of 31 lengths, finishing third twice at Warwick and Exeter. This looks more of a scouting mission for him and connections.
Big-Race Verdict
This could be a tremendous edition of the Kauto Star, with Il Est Francais giving France a genuine hopeful, both on this day and for Cheltenham. Weighing up his form is very difficult against his British rivals though, especially as two of them are serious contenders to be the best novice chasers on offer on these shores. GIOVINCO may have already finished behind a Paul Nicholls-trained runner at Graded level this season, but even in receipt of weight, he shaped like the best horse for much of that race. As such, he is preferred to Hermes Allen, who nevertheless is greatly respected after his impressive chase debut at Newbury.
- Giovinco
- Hermes Allen
- Il Est Francais
SELECTION: GIOVINCO 1pt win at 5/2 (generally)
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – 7.48pm Saturday 23rd December*
10 To Follow – Andrew Mount’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. GG’s chief tipster Andrew Mount is the next to give his selections, which include two runners from champion trainer Paul Nicholls yard, as well as last season’s Irish Grand National winner. BYKER (Charles…
Wed 25 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.