The Kerry National is the most valuable race held at Listowel racecourse all year, with the winner taking home €118,000 this year.
This year see’s Gordon Elliott’s Salvador Ziggy one of the market leaders for the race, having won all three of his races over fences to date. However, the race isn’t the kindest to favourite backers, with no favourite winning in the last 10 renewals. Other runners set to feature prominently in the betting include Ain’t That A Shame, Authorized Art and Stealthy Tom.
GG editor Jake Russell previews the race, looking at the key trends for the racing and running through the key runners and a couple of outsiders, before giving his expert verdict on who he’s going to be siding with.
Last year’s renewal went the way of Joseph Patrick O’Brien for the second successive year, as BUSSELTON ran out a game winner under a fine J J Slevin ride:
Last 10 Winners
- 2022 – Busselton (JJ Slevin and Joseph O’Brien)
- 2021 – Assemble (Shane Fitzgerald and Joseph O’Brien)
- 2020 – Cabaret Queen (Paul Townend and Willie Mullins)
- 2019 – Poker Party (Rachael Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead)
- 2018 – Snow Falcon (Jonathan Moore and Noel Meade)
- 2017 – Potters Point (Ms L O’Neill and Gordon Elliott)
- 2016 – Wrath Of Titans (Ms L O’Neill and Gordon Elliott)
- 2015 – Rogue Angel (Ger Fox and Mouse Morris)
- 2014 – Your Busy (Ms K Walsh and J A Nash)
- 2013 – White Star Line (A E Lynch and D T Hughes)
Key Runners
Salvador Ziggy
(Gordon Elliott/Jack Kennedy)
Probably the real eye catcher heading into this race who could go on to become a very decent chaser in the making, that’s not to say he isn’t at the moment, but he has only been running in Novice Chase’s, so he has to prove it against more experienced rivals over fences. That being said he is a perfect three out of three over the larger obstacles, knowing his job in his Chasing debut at Punchestown in June, beating Hubrisko by a little under 6 lengths, he did look novicey early on, but the more he jumped the better he got. He then had a little break before going on to run in a decent chase contest at Tramore where he was sent off the odds on favourite once again, and he didn’t really put a foot wrong to win very comfortably by 12 lengths. The Gordon Elliott mount then went on to just battle with one rival in his next Novice Chase where he wasn’t sent off the favourite, Toss Again who he opposes once again in the Kerry National was sent off a little shade of odds on, but the market did get it wrong. Salvador Ziggy once again didn’t put a foot wrong, racing in 2nd all the way around before mounting his challenge 3 out, leading from 2 out to win eased down by a cool 13 lengths. That has earnt him the rating of 150 over fences, compared to his rating of 145 over Hurdles, where he had 9 runs over the smaller obstacles, so he was obviously built and targeted for the larger jumps. It is hard to know where his limitations lie, as he could be far to good for these and waltz in, or he could find it a little to hot to handle. I would say given his connections, and how well they have done in this race for the past 10 years or so (2 winners) he could prove to go for these, but he needs to prove that he can handle the heat of the big, more experienced chasers in this contest. But as I mentioned, he could literally be anything no he is over fences.
Ain’t That A Shame
(Henry De Bromhead/Rachael Blackmore)
Now if there is one thing we can assume this horse has in his locker, is his staying ability, as he was pitched straight into the Grand National last season when the furthest he has ever run at is 3m2f, so connections must think he is a staying chaser in the making. He did finish last of the completed runners that day and was very much well beaten, basically eased down in the later stages of the race, but we all know how testing the Grand National is. His form before that decent enough, a lightly raced campaign over hurdles where he ran just the three times, winning a Maiden Hurdle, that does just go to show connections really purchased him for fences, and he has shown at times that was very much a correct decision. He has only won over the fences one, which was a Beginners Chase at Gowran Park in March, he did win with relative ease making all, jumping well and pulling away in the finish. Now probably his best piece of form is a run where he come 2nd, so isn’t winning form, but that was in the Munster National at Limerick where he finished a head 2nd, and arguably could have won had he not pecked on landing at the last. He was quite unlucky not to win that day, but he does seem to thrive on these big field testing handicap races, as another decent piece of form was a 4th in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December last year, only beaten by just under 2 lengths, keeping on all the way to the line. As mentioned he always seems to run well in these big field races, but he does seem to put in a few little mistakes at the last, which has cost him a race or two previously. But the one thing we can guarantee, is he will be staying on heading to the line. His rating still sits at 146, which hasn’t changed since his Novice Chase win at the back end of last season and he does seem to run well fresh (His 2nd in the Munster was his first run of the season).
Authorized Art
(Willie Mullins/Paul Townend)
As we all know the combination of Willie Mullins and Paul Townend in a race of this nature is a force to be reconned with, and although Authorized Art hasn’t won since October 2022, he is just a couple of pounds below the top-weight in this contest. He does seem to thrive in the early parts of the new jumps season, as all of his best form does tend to come early on, a Beginners Chase winner last July, a Novice Chase winner last August before going on to win the Grade 3 O’Dwyer Steel Dundrum Novice Chase with Ash Tree Meadow finishing 2nd beaten by 9 lengths. After that he then went on to run in some very good Grade 1 Novice Chase contest, finishing 4th behind Mighty Potter in December, and then 4th behind Gerri Colombe later on that month, then well beaten by Flame Bearer in another Grade 1 contest this time at Fairyhouse. He was fairly well beaten in all of those contests, so probably does lack the Grade 1 potential, and that was acknowledged by connections as he was then pitched straight into Handicap company, coming 6th behind Kilcruit, before going on to run on the flat. The big thing that will play in his favour is the fact he does well in early season contest, and he shown he still has that little spark in there last time out when coming 2nd in the Galway Plate, beaten by just under 3 lengths, pushing his race fit rival all the way, just failing in the closing stages which may have come down to fitness. That did earn him a 5lb raise however, so he is just 2lb’s shy off his best mark over fences, so he has to prove he is up to the standard of being a 150+ rated horse. You can never write off a Mullins/Townend horse, after the combination won the 2020 renewal of this race.
Stealthy Tom
(Enda Bolger/Mark McDonagh)
One of the form horses heading into this contest, his form for this current season reads 1121, and although he has been relatively busy these past few months, any horse that arrives into a race of this nature in winning form has to be taken quite seriously. Although just being an 8yo, he is one of the more experienced horses in the field with 19 runs over the larger obstacles so far, winning on 6 different occasions and placing on 3, and although he has now been given by far a career high mark of 140 (Was rated only 98 over Hurdles) that is now a 11lb higher mark from his last win, which was a very good performance and probably a career best as yet, when winning the Listed Chase at Killarney with Mr Saxobeat at remote 10 length 2nd in behind. He is in awesome form of late, and arrives into this race the most inform horse out of the field, but he needs to prove this new mark of 140 isn’t above his limitations.
Outsiders To Watch
Stumptown
(Gavin Cromwell/Danny Mullins)
A horse that is owned by a syndicate, so it would be fantastic to see them land a very valuable contest of this nature, but he has already created some lovely days out for his owners. A winner of the Alanbrooke Handicap Chase at Sandown last February, which booked his ticket to run in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham festival in march where he ran a very good 2nd, only beaten by Angel’s Dawn by a neck, probably just outstayed up the Cheltenham hill. Although he was beaten that day, it was a mighty effort to only just be denied in the final few strides by a thorough stayer. He now currently operates at the mark of 140, which is by far a career best as expected, so is running with a bit more weight in these big handicap contests, therefore he needs to prove he can run to this level, but he is a very likeable consistent sort who always wears his heart on his sleeve when running. I wouldn’t look into that race to much from last time, as it was his first run in 118 days, therefore looked to be a pipe opener for a real decent winter campaign ahead, starting off by trying to land this fantastic prize at Listowel this week. I think he is a decent price, and if he was trained by one of the “big two” trainers, then he would be quite a bit shorter in the market.
The Goffer
(Gordon Elliott/Kieren Buckley)
A horse that I selected on a few occasions last season, I am absolutely convinced he has a big pot in him going forward, as he has shown in the past he can run well in these big field testing handicap chases. He was a winner of a valuable Handicap at Punchestown in February, producing a career best performance off the mark of 138, which did earn him a 11lb rise at the time. He then lined up in the Ultima at the festival next time where he travelled very well into the race, and did look like a real threat heading around the final bend, however didn’t particularly enjoy the Cheltenham Hill that day. He then pulled up in the Irish Grand National before going on to run well again to finish 4th in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April off a career high mark of 149. He was well beaten that day, but I have a feeling Sandown didn’t particularly suit that day, and I don’t really think running in the UK suits as all of his best form comes in Ireland. He has already had the season opener in the Galway Plate last time where he finished a remote 8th, well beaten, but that was his first run in a while and I think he is a type to thrive with the more racing he has, so that would have blown away all of the cobwebs ready for the contest at Listowel this week. As I previously mentioned I really do feel a big run is coming in a race of this nature, and this could be the one now he is fit and ready to go. Gordon Elliott has won this race a few times with his “bigger priced” runners, so all of his runners arrive here with great chances.
Big-Race Verdict
Considering there are 18 runners listed for this race on Wednesday, I would never usually go for the market leader given how open the race looks on paper, but I feel Salvador Ziggy has the potential to be a top class Chaser, and given his lack of experience over the larger obstacles, that could hinder his chances, but I feel that will play to his strengths. He is unexposed, and could easily improve past his current rating of 150, and given he has only run in Novice Chase, he defiantly falls in the ‘could be anything category’. Stumptown has had his pipe opener for the season, and I think there could be a real nice winter campaign for him in these big field handicaps, He is a very consistent type who will thrive in these conditions, and if he can re-produce that effort from the Festival in March, he will be there come the finish. The Goffer is one I’m convinced can land a big pot of this nature, and now he has had the run recently that has blown the cobwebs away, he could go well in this big field chase that he seems to thrive so well in.
SELECTION: Salvador Ziggy (Win – 6/1 generally) & Stumptown (E/W – 12/1 generally) & The Goffer – (E/W – 14/1 generally)
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