The Grade 1 Lexus Melbourne Cup is the ‘race that stops the nation’ and is the biggest race on the calendar in Australia. There have been many turn up for the books in recent renewals, and it’s a race that many market leaders struggle to win, making it a very decent betting heat.
Vauban heads over for Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore, and he does look to be a worthy favourite here. However, with favourites having a poor record in the race, could it be worth taking him on?
GG writer Jake Russell previews this years race, running through the key runners and a couple of lively outsiders, before giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Ciaran Maher & David Eustace’s GOLD TRIP defy top weight to win under a superb ride from Mark Zahra:
Key Runners
5. Vauban
(Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore)
It’s pretty well decorated that favourites do not have the greatest record in Australia’s famous two-mile contest, with only three out of the last 10 winners of the race being single figures odds (8/1 in 2018, 7/1 in 2014 and 6/1 in 2013). With that very much in mind, Vauban has it all to do here. However, he is a deserved market leader, and many in the world of horse racing in Australia agree this to be the case. Stating the Willie Mullins charge could be very tough to beat here, especially if he can replicate his form shown this season already.
Willie Mullins and owner Rich Ricci have been targeting the Melbourne Cup from a long way out with this horse, with Rich Ricci speaking to Sky Sports Horse Racing saying they had this race in mind before last season, his season over hurdles last term was to strengthen him up for this. He has some excellent Group 1 form over the jumps previously, while his 7 and a half length win at Ascot in the Copper Horse Handicap off the mark of 101, turned plenty of heads and he shown that day he has plenty of gears to power through and win a race of this nature. He then backed that performance up when landing the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes at Naas, once again showing how well he is thriving one the flat at present.
With Ryan Moore booked fresh off a very good Breeders Cup, that in itself is a win for connections. Stall 3 shouldn’t be to much of an issue for him, as he does have early speed to get him into a good position early on, with the staying ability shown when operating over hurdles. All eyes will certainly be on Vauban as we head into this race.
3. Without A Fight
(Anthony & Sam Freedman/Mark Zahra)
Without A Fight was pretty well fancied for this race last year when with previous trainer Simon & Ed Crisford, with William Buick booked up to ride at the time. But, like most of last year’s foreign raiders, he seemingly couldn’t handle the track that day which had the going description of soft, unusual I would imagine for this type of contest. This year he gets his dry conditions to suit, where most of, if not all of his best previous UK form has come on. This includes the Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes at York last July, and the Listed Godolphin Stakes back in 2021.
He has since changed trainers, and has been training in Australia with Anthony & Sam Freedman who have this horse coming into this race in tip top form. He has won three of the four races since last year’s Melbourne Cup. A Group 3 romp at Eagles Farm on stable debut before landing a Group 2 at the same venue, then putting in a career best to land the Grade 1 Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup at Caulfield, with West Wind Blows in behind that day.
Interestingly Mark Zahra has chosen to ride Without A Fight here rather than attempt back-to-back wins on Gold Trip, who won the Melbourne Cup last year, who looks to repeat that feat this time around. Which is a huge call and quite eye-catching decision in itself. He has the right ingredients to win this race, and is operating in great form at the moment. He could very much be the one to upset the market leader Vauban.
1. Gold Trip
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/James McDonald)
Last year’s winner Gold Trip has every chance of repeating that feat from a year ago, as he looks to become the first horse to win back to back Melbourne cups since Makybe Diva. Makybe Diva is the most decorated winner of the Melbourne Cup, landing three in a row back in 2003, 2004 and 2005. That effort last year was pretty awesome, as he was sent off fairly large odds of 20/1, he did however seemingly handle the track conditions better than the rest that day when pulling away to win by 2 lengths.
He has followed the same path into this race this year, the exact same as last year with runs in the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate for his last two starts. Although beaten in those two runs, he wasn’t beaten by that far, just as similar to when heading into the Melbourne Cup last year. He does have to lug around plenty of weight in the race this year, 58.5kg to be exact, and by my understanding no horse has won with this high level of weight since Think Big way back in 1975. However, his efforts last time out were quite eye catching ones in defeat, and although he might want a bit of cut in ground he does have previous form on better conditions.
He has a decent draw in stall 2 to come out of and a very good international jockey in James McDonald booked up to go. I would imagine a lot are favouring Gold Trip in this, as it would be great for Australian racing should they get a back to back winner of this race, the first in almost 20 years.
7. Absurde
(Willie Mullins/Zac Purton)
Willie Mullins sends over another runner to test the waters in this contest, with recent Ebor winner Absurde, with Hong Kong maestro Zac Purton booked to ride. Zac, an Australian himself, has been applying his trade in Hong Kong for years winning many races over there, as well as the 2012 Kings Stand in the UK at Royal Ascot and many of Australia’s top end races. That is clearly an eye-catching booking for connections of Absurde, where the horse arrives into this race, like Vauban lightly campaigned with just the two runs on the flat all season (Plus 2 hurdle runs).
A very decent 2nd to Vauban at Royal Ascot, he couldn’t really land a glove on him that day but did still run with a lot of credit. He has also run over hurdles twice this season, winning the first one and coming 6th fairly well beaten on is 2nd run. Arguably a career best came last time out however when he lined up in the Skybet Ebor Handicap at York, Frankie Dettori’s last ride in the feature handicap, where he won very nicely by half a length, with Sweet William (Who has been running in Group company since) was in behind 2nd that day. I would say he will be mainly operated as a flat horse from now on, as his ceiling doesn’t look as high over obstacles.
No Frankie to ride him here, however Zac Purton is a decent replacement, with 8 stone 5 a very decent weight to carry here (8 of the last 10 winners were waited between 8st – 8st 13lbs, but the last two winners were 9st + 9st 1lb).
6. Soulcombe
(Chris Waller/Joao Moreira)
Another horse that was once trained in the UK, Soulcombe was trained by William Haggas and was a winner on his last start for connections. That was in a decent handicap contest at York, where he beat Caius Chorister by just over 4 lengths, backing up a Ascot and Haydock Handicap win from earlier on in the season. A winner of the Group 3 Queen’s Cup for his first start with Chris Waller, he has since won once more in a Listed event at Caulfield. Before going on to tackle some decent Group 1 contests where he came 4th, 3rd and 7th in each of the runs. Although finishing 7th last time out in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, he did miss the break and had to be kept at the back throughout before staying on in the final stages, not showing enough pace to catch the leaders. He was only beaten by just under 6 lengths, and if he broke better he could have finished a little closer to the rest.
This step up to 2-miles will suit him, as all of his best form in Australia and the UK has been other further, and he does have a nice weight to carry in this. But stall 4 could present a little issue for him. Top class Hong Kong rider Joao Moreira takes the ride, who like Zac Purton has won all there is to win Hong Kong over the years he has been riding there.
Outsiders To Watch
21. Future History
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Hollie Doyle)
Being in the UK, I’ve got to back our riders to do well over in Australia when they go over, and Hollie Doyle heads over to ride for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace aboard their Future History. There are a few chances to be taken with this horse, as his form is a little way off most of these, especially at the head of the market, and he does need to prove that he stays the 2-mile trip. However he does carry a lightweight here which could help the burden of stepping up in trip somewhat.
Once trained in France and owned by Juddmonte, so he has a decent back end in terms of breeding, he was the winner of the Group 3 Bart Cummings Stakes at Flemington, on his second start for new connections. That was over 1m4f, and he hasn’t been a yard further than that. However, the past few races have suggested he could tackle this sort of trip on good ground, with a low weight on his back.
Although there are a few risks attached to siding with him, Hollie Doyle has been taken over to ride, which is an excellent opportunity for her, and vibes are pretty strong from her and Tom Marquand (her partner). Therefore Future History could be one to side with, off a flyweight at a decent enough price currently.
9. Vow And Declare
(Danny O’Brien/Billy Egan)
Although the old boy of the party now, it would do him a huge injustice if I didn’t mention Vow And Declare. A stalwart of this race in recent times, he won the 2019 edition of the Melbourne cup with Prince Of Aran in behind that day. He has since been well beaten on the next two times he has run in the race that stops the nation, however he has somewhat peaked in terms of form again in his last two runs.
A real good looking eye-catcher of a chestnut, he has come 2nd on his last two starts including in the Group 1 Neds Might And Power at Caulfield and in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time, only beaten by three quarters of a length. That spark of old does look to be there, and he has been given a very similar stall to come out of that he won on back in 2019 (He came out of stall 21 that day, he has stall 19 here). Given the decent weight he has to carry around, it wouldn’t surprise me should we see a big run from him here in a race he won 4 years back. Billy Egan is having a great 2023, and the 2023 Group 1 Australian Derby winner takes the reins on him in this, as he looks to land his first Melbourne Cup.
Big-Race Verdict
Being a Brit myself, I would really love to see Vauban win this for Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci and I will probably cheer him on if he looks likely to win (If I am up at 4am). However I am taking my clouded goggles off for this here as I feel given the foreigners recent exploits in this race, it could go to Australia once again.
I am no Australian racing expert but Without A Fight just seems to fit the bill perfectly for me here, he has a decent stall of 16 and the perfect winning weight for this race. Plus the fact that last years winning rider Mark Zahra decides to ride him instead of Gold Trip speaks wonders for me personally, as Gold Trip is biding for back to back wins in the Melbourne Cup. Mark has ridden some cracking horses of late, including a victory in the Caulfield Cup aboard Verry Elleegant last year, that is enough for me to side with him here.
Future History has to prove the 2-miles will suit him, but he has a high numbered stall and a flyweight to carry around, plus the matter of our Hollie Doyle riding. He could have a good chance at a very decent price. Plus the old boy Vow And Declare who won this race back in 2019, but has struggled a little in recent renewals however he looks to be in his best form for a while coming off the back of two decent 2nd places efforts in Group company. Like Future History he could go well at a decent price, given he has won this race previously. One final note, although I’ve gone against Vauban here, I will still be happy should he come out on top in this, as connections have been planning this for a while. But he does have it all up against him realistically.
SELECTION: WITHOUT A FIGHT (E/W – 6/1 generally), FUTURE HISTORY (E/W – 16/1 generally) & VOW AND DECLARE (E/W – 25/1 generally)
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – 12.20pm Monday 6th November*
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