The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes is one of the feature middle distance races in the whole flat calendar, and this year we have a fantastic renewal of the race. A Derby winner, a lightly raced Royal Ascot winner and the heroine of the contest a year ago all line up this weekend, plus many more top class Group 1 winning horses.
GG Editor Jake Russell (@JakeRuss1000) takes us through the runners, with a few trends and statistics thrown in there from previous renewals of this contest. Finishing off with his final race verdict:
Odds correct at time of posting – 4pm 27th July
Race Trends + Statistics
- 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older – With 4 of the last 12 winners being aged 3 (Adayar the last 3yo winner which was in 2021)
- 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites – 7 of the last 12 winners being top 3 in the betting.
- 7 of the last 12 winners have had a previous run at Ascot – With 5 of the last 12 winners having won at Ascot previously.
- 10 of the last 12 winners have had 2 previous runs over the 12 furlongs – 12 of the last 12 winners have had at least 1 previous win over 12 furlongs.
- 10 of the last 12 winners have had at least 5 previous runs on the flat.
- 10 of the last 12 winners have been rated 118 or higher.
- 10 of the last 12 winners have had at least 1 win at Group 1 level.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Auguste Rodin
Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore (3/1 Best Price)
This year’s Epsom and Irish Derby winner, just the 19th horse in history to do that, it really does put into perspective the quality this horse has in his locker. He wasn’t exactly his glittering best in the Irish Derby at The Curragh last time, but he still went on to win going away by a length and a half, which was more than good enough on the day. A few question marks have been raised about the ride on the second horse, but when it all comes down to it, Auguste Rodin still won comfortably. He was a Group 1 winner over a mile as a 2yo, but did bomb out in the 2000 Guineas on his first start as a 3yo when things clearly didn’t go his way in the race, but we all knew he was perfectly bred for the Derby trip going forward. He went into the race at Epsom with a little point to prove, and he duly obliged by beating King Of Steel by half a length, always doing enough heading to the line. His current race record stands at 5 wins in just 7 career runs, with Three Group 1’s to his name already, as he will be looking to add another this weekend. Aidan O’Brien has won this race on four previous occasions, the last one however coming seven years ago in 2016 with Highland Reel. Because he is younger than most of his rivals in this contest, he gets a nice chunk of weight off them, but is taking on the older horses for the very first time, which could really set us up for a fascinating contest this weekend. His record shows he is a classy animal, and is trained by the master of Ballydoyle.
Hukum
Owen Burrows and Jim Crowley (4/1 Best Price)
A horse that was retired and then brought back into racing looked arguably better than ever when downing the tools of 2022 Derby winner Desert Crown at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes, which was his first run in 356 days. Before that he was an awesome winner of the Group 1 Coronation Cup in June 2022, where he beat Pyledriver by just under 5 lengths, putting in a career best performance and earning him a career best rating of 122. Before that he just looked like a Group 3 horse at best, only really contesting in those sort of races, but in typical Owen Burrows fashion he got more out of this horse the older he got, leading to a Group 2 win at Meydan, and then a 7th place finish in the Dubai Sheema Classic, where he was only beaten by just under 2 lengths running on well heading to the line. He then went on to put in that career best effort in the Coronation Cup at Epsom, which was at the time what we thought to be his final run. He returned to racing however, but is quite obviously fragile in the sense that he has had just the four runs since October 2021, but that seems to suit him. His record stands at 10 wins in just 16 career runs, which is an excellent, and he is clearly thriving in his later years at present. The one slight concern is the weight he has to give away to a few younger rivals, who could still be improving ever so slightly, and will he act on softer conditions at this higher level, he has won on this ground in the past so only time will tell.
King Of Steel
Roger Varian and Kevin Stott (4/1 Best Price)
Probably the main unknown quantity in this contest, he only ran his first race last October when winning on debut at Nottingham before going on to run in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster, which was won by Auguste Rodin. He then looked to have improved absolute wonders over the winter break heading into his 3yo campaign as he ran a very fine race to finish second, by half a length in the Epsom Derby on just his third career start, at the very big odds of 66/1. Ever since then people have latched onto him with loving eyes, due to his big stature and all the heart he shows when running, he then lined up at Royal Ascot with all eyes on him heading into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, where he won with ease by just over 3 lengths. Sometimes with horses that run so well at huge prices in the Derby, they don’t always back it up with their next few runs, but this horse looks to break that mould, looking like a whole different prospect for the middle distance division, and he is just a 3yo with only four career runs to his name. There will surely be much more improvement to come from him, and he is now only 3lb’s lower than Auguste Rodin, but the Aidan O’Brien horse has beat him on two occasions now, connections will very much look to reverse that form. Statistics don’t bode well for lightly raced horses in this contest, along with the record of just 4 out of the last 12 previous winners being 3yo’s, statistics would say he has it all to do, but stats are there to be broken, and he is very much a horse who could do so, and given he ran on softer conditions as a 2yo, he will be well built for the expected conditions on Saturday. No matter how he runs in this race, he is quite exciting for connections going forward.
Emily Upjohn
John & Thady Gosden and Frankie Dettori (5/1 Best Price)
Being Frankie’s last season riding, it would be fitting to see him go into the Ascot enclosure via the winning post with his and Emily Upjohn’s head in front, and she is heading into this contest with a pretty decent chance. She is a 2x Group 1 winner already and was unlucky not to make it three in last years Epsom Oaks where she finished a close up 2nd after falling out of the stalls, and everything going against her. She did line up in this contest a year ago however, and really did disappoint coming last of the 6 runner field, so it begs the question of is she good enough to win it this year given it is a much harder race, but she has looked better than ever this season so far. She was an easy winner of the Coronation Cup at Epsom on her first run of the season in June, with Westover a 2 length second, who has since won a Group 1 contest over in France, so that form has been franked nicely. Emily Upjohn lined up against one of the improving horses of the season Paddington in the Coral Eclipse, which served up a fantastic contest between the two as they battled all the way to the line. She wasn’t beaten far at all, over the trip of 1m2f which will not suit her as well as the 1m4f trip does, so back to this trip I can see her running an almighty race. She seems to be suited by all conditions, and John Gosden has said he expects her to run a decent race this year, putting that poor effort from last year behind her. I think it would be silly to discount her in this, as she is taking a similar if not the same route that Enable taken for all of her King George wins, the Gosdens know how to get their fillies ready for these sort of contests. Although she has to give a little bit of weight to the younger horses, but she still receives 3lbs of the older male runners. I think she is in the form of her life at present, is already a Group 1 winner and runner up this season, and has mixed it up against the boys many times before, coming out on top on a few occasions. Do not write her off at Group 1 level yet.
Pyledriver
William Muir & Chris Grassick and PJ McDonald (15/2 Best Price)
One of the stories in racing at the moment, a horse that was bought for what is considered peanuts in the racing world, who wasn’t sold at the sales so his loving owner kept him persisted with him as a racehorse, and what a decision that was from him. The highest rated horse in the field who is already a multiple Group 1 winner, including in this contest a year ago and the Coronation Cup in June 2021. He headed to Royal Ascot last time off a 330+ day break, with a few niggling injuries between his last run and then, he really did look to have it all against him last time given the break from the racecourse, with bigger targets in mind further on in the season. But you wouldn’t have known he hasn’t seen a racecourse for almost a year, lining up in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes, in what was a competitive Group class field, he ran with so much credit and won nicely in the end by just under 2 lengths, with West Wind Blows in behind. That would have blown the cobwebs away perfectly for this, and he already has this race notched up on his still ever growing CV. One thing that leaves me slightly concerned is the race fell apart last year with Emily Upjohn not firing, so it was handed to him some what, but he has shown time and time again he likes to be the underdog and you can only beat what’s put in front of you, so connections will have him more than primed ready for this, as he looks to win back to back King Georges for the first time since the mighty Enable, with not many doing that in the history of this illustrious race.
Luxembourg
Aidan O’Brien and Seamie Heffernan (14/1 Best Price)
It would be silly to rule out an Aidan O’Brien just because it is a bigger priced runner, as we have seen before he can win these big races with his bigger odds runners, one that really comes to mind is Serpentine in the 2020 Derby at Epsom. Now Luxembourg is a classy individual in his own right and is not far off most of these on official ratings, with a current rating of 122. His race record reads 6 wins in just 10 career starts, which includes the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster in 2021, Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes in 2022 and the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh on his first start of this season as a 4yo. He was expected to win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal meeting last month, where he was sent off the 2/1 market leader, but was well put in his place by a rejuvenated Mostahdaf who beat him by 4 lengths. He does also tackle this 1m4f trip for only the second time in his career, the first time being in last years Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp, where he was relatively well beaten, but that was in conditions far from being optimum for him. His trainer has always touted him as being a top class 1m4f horse, but he is yet to show it, however the little experience over this trip might play a factor into his price, so on better conditions from his Arc run last year, this trip might be worth considering for him again, but he would probably have to step his form up to a whole new gear to land a very classy contest of this nature, plus he like many of the other runners is giving some of the young pretenders a fair chunk of weight.
Westover
Ralph Beckett and Rob Hornby (16/1 Best Price)
A real likeable sort who posted some very good time figures last time out when running in a Group 1 in France, which might suggest he is still on the rise with each passing run, and he has been fancied in the betting since getting declared this morning. The 2022 Derby 3rd who was unlucky in that race on the day, then went on to win the Irish Variant in very easy fashion, beating Piz Badile by 7 lengths, which was and since has been a career best performance from the Ralph Beckett horse. He was a Group 1 winner last time out when winning the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud, with Zagrey 2 lengths in behind. As previously mentioned the times were very good, and it was a nice performance to the eye, on good to soft conditions, so the forecasted ground conditions for this weekend will be no issue, and the fact he is a multiple Group 1 performer and still double figure odds, really shows the level of depth in this fantastic contest.
Big-Race Verdict:
There are a few at the lower end of the market that have been left out, as I feel they would need to put in by far a career best to land a blow on the rest of these. In what is an absolutely brilliant contest, I am finding it quite hard to nail down on just one to win, it is the sort of race you will just sit back, relax and enjoy unfold. However if my hand was forced, I would have to side with Emily Upjohn, who is a proven Grade 1 performer and has run well in the past against older horses of the opposite sex. The headgear remains off, which could be a slight concern given she seems to win with the headgear on, however I think she will get a quick pace in this contest to aim at, and back at the 1m4f trip that seems to suit her to best effect, I feel she could beat the younger horses with her valuable big race experience, and there is no real upward improver like Paddington, who she taken on in the Coral Eclipse last time out. It is Frankie’s last season, and he is riding well this year, given he hasn’t ridden that much lately due to an unfortunate ban, but he will look to make back lost time and get another Group 1 on the board this season. King Of Steel and Auguste Rodin are two very good 3yo types, who will no doubt be improving still, no matter how they run in this race, they are very exciting going forward as the season progresses. I think Westover is a big price, but is being backed in slightly, which suggests he probably shouldn’t be the price that he is, He is a multiple Group 1 winner and looked better than ever last time out, I can see him running well to place.
SELECTION – Emily Upjohn (11/2 Best Price – To Win) & Westover (16/1 Best Price – EW)
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