The feature race on Friday’s Leopardstown card is the Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle, a race that has been dominated by master trainer Willie Mullins over the years. In the last ten years, he’s won the race eight times, including each of the last five renewals, with Sharjah landing the race four times (2018-2021) and State Man running out an easy winner last year (2022).
Only four runners line up for this year’s renewal, with Willie Mullins saddling three of the quarter, including the short-priced favourite State Man.
GG editor Tom Aldridge runs through the four runners, before giving his expert opinion on who he’ll be siding with.
Last year’s renewal saw Willie Mullins continue his dominance in the race, as STATE MAN ran out an easy winner over stablemates Vauban (2nd) and Sharjah (3rd):
Key Race Trends
- Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 10 renewals.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 160+.
- 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5-6.
- Five of the last 10 winners were favourite.
- Only one winner in the last 10 years was a double figure price (14/1 winner Mick Jazz in 2017).
- Mares are 0-3 in the last 10 renewals.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
STATE MAN
(Willie Mullins/Paul Townend)
Willie Mullins star has only tasted defeat once in his last nine races, which came at the hands of a certain Constitution Hill back in March, so we can forgive him that one! Asides from that, he has won each of his races in the past two years, including an impressive SIX Grade 1’s. If the ground remains heavy, this will be the softest conditions he will have faced, but having won three times on soft ground I don’t see it being too much of an inconvenience to him. He has already beaten two of these rivals when running out a comfortable winner of the Morgiana Hurdle on seasonal reappearance and I don’t see either of those reversing that form. The only realistic danger is stablemate Impaire Et Passe, but I don’t see him having the pace to get past State Man here.
IMPAIRE ET PASSE
(Willie Mullins/Daryl Jacob)
It shows you just how good State Man is when you see the price available on Impaire Et Passe, who has only tasted defeat once in his career! Willie Mullins second string has some impressive wins to his name, including running out a convincing winner in two Grade 1’s last season, before only going down by a length to Teahupoo, who is always best when returning from a break. He does drop down in trip here, but he ran out a comfortable 6 length winner when last tried over this distance, so I don’t see that being too much of an issue. The only negative to his chances is the fact State Man is in the race!
ECHOES IN RAIN
(Willie Mullins/Danny Mullins)
The third string from the Mullins yard looks to be up against it to get the better of her two stablemates, especially considering mares don’t have a good record in the race. She did finish fourth in the 2021 renewal, but she was beaten 15 lengths and if anything, this looks a stronger renewal than that one. She may have only been beaten five lengths by State Man on seasonal reappearance in the Morgiana Hurdle, but she was never really a danger to him and the same outcome will likely apply here. I can’t see her finishing ahead of either of her stablemates, but she should at least be able to confirm form with Fils D’Oudairies and should be able to finish third.
FILS D’OUDAIRIES
(Gordon Elliott/Jack Kennedy)
The only runner not from the Mullins yard, Gordon Elliott’s Fils D’Oudairies looks up against here and would need to reverse form with State Man and Echoes In Rain to be in with any sort of a chance. That doesn’t look easy either, considering he has been well beaten on two of his three previous visits to Leopardstown. It’s also worth noting that the last 10 winners of the race were rated 150+, so his rating of 148 is another negative. In all honesty he looks a shoe in to finish last here.
Big-Race Verdict
It’s impossible to get away from last year’s winner STATE MAN, who is by far the best two-miler in Ireland and it’s only Constitution Hill who appears capable of beating him. He has only tasted defeat once in his last nine races, and having won six Grade 1’s already, I’m confident he’ll land his seventh Grade 1 in comfortable fashion on Friday. Impaire Et Passe is certainly best placed to capitalise on any mistakes his stablemate makes and looks the pick for runner-up honours, whilst Echoes In Rain should be capable of confirming recent form with Fils D’Oudairies and can finish third and fourth respectively.
- State Man (4/7 Paddy Power & Betfair, 1/2 generally)
- Impaire Et Passe (2/1 generally)
- Echoes In Rain (14/1 William Hill, 12/1 generally)
- Fils D’Oudairies (100/1 generally)
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – 11.13am Thursday 28th December*
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