We are set for an enthralling day’s action at Aintree on Thursday 11th April for day one of the 2024 Grand National meeting. Our value tipster Matty Sutcliffe is back after a very successful Cheltenham Festival and he has his best bets for the opening day on Merseyside.
Published: 3:46pm, Tuesday, 9th April, Updated: 1:14pm, Wednesday 10th April (Odds correct at time of publication)
2.20 Aintree – Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo) – Intellotto 1pt EW 14/1 2 places
Simon Munir and Isaac Souede won this race in 2018 with the smart We Have A Dream, and have targeted the race with other talented sorts in recent years such as Sceau Royal, Footpad and Bristol De Mai. This has been the plan for INTELLOTTO, who hails from a beautiful Aga Khan dam line which includes the likes of 2007 Supreme winner Ebaziyan and 1999 Ascot Gold Cup winner Enzeli. He has a truly fascinating pedigree for a flat bred jumper, and Oasis Dream as a National Hunt dam-sire has produced an impressive array of winners.
Before I veer off down a bloodline tangent, Intelloto was impressive in a Leopardstown maiden hurdle over the Christmas period on debut for connections, a race in which O’Brien last won with the sadly ill-fated Sir Erec in 2018, and the form of that race worked out extremely well with the 5th/6th finishing 3rd/1st in the Boodles.
He was then beaten nine lengths in there G1 Spring Juvenile in February, far from disgraced in 7th where the 3rd and 1st were subsequently 1st and 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle, and he got back to winning ways at Limerick in comfortable fashion last month, giving 7lbs to the second who subsequently finished 2nd to a promising sort in the G2 Irish Whiskey Juvenile Hurdle at the start of this month. The aforementioned bit of form alone suggests Intellotto is overpriced in here given Givemefive was beaten fourteen lengths there after being beaten 3/4L by Kalif Du Berlais, who is a top-price of 9/2 for this contest at the time of writing.
The son of Lope De Vega has to find nine lengths with Kargese, but he comes here fresher than the Triumph runner up and given there’s still somewhat of a cloud around Henderson’s yard, Sir Gino looks worth taking on at the prices, so Intellotto looks a good bet at 14s to make the top two.
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Grand National Value Punts – Four Targeted for Big Race on Saturday
The Grand National is the race everyone wants to find the winner of. However, our value expert Matthew Sutcliffe is not just looking an easy short-priced winner, but one to land a punt at a big price. As such, he has four still in the race to follow five days out from the start. Published:…
Mon 08 Apr 20242.55 Aintree (Mildmay) William Hill Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Ahoy Senor 12/1 1pt EW 3 places
I’ve been against AHOY SENOR plenty in the past for his jumping frailties, but he tends to save his best form for the Mildmay course where his record here reads 231, with a further ‘1’ adding to that when he won the Sefton in 2021. He was second to Shishkin in the race last season where again his jumping was far from foot perfect, but he lost a shoe there and should Derek Fox manage to get him into a rhythm then this talented five time graded winner can outrun his odds.
Admittedly he’s not been at his best this year, but there’s plausible excuses, given his jockey’s stirrup snapped at the 4th at Cheltenham in January, and the previous two efforts came over middle distances, a trip he’s not won over since 2021. He didn’t have a particularly hard race in the Ryanair last month, whereas the likes of Gerri Colombe, Corbetts Cross, Bravemansgame and Gentlemansgame were at put to the limits beyond three miles, so Ahoy Senor may be just that tad fresher, and I’m hoping the return to the Mildmay course going slower on this heavy ground will counteract his jumping frailties.
4:05 Aintree Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) – Lieutenant Rocco 28/1 1pt EW 5 places
Lieutenant Rocco was the subject of a gamble last time out when a distant third at Wincanton, but that came eight days after his third at Taunton and probably a tad too soon, though connections had to get the run into him in order to qualify for the Hunters’ Chase at Cheltenham. They skipped that contest in order to keep him fresh there and I’m willing to draw a line through the Wincanton effort, though the fact he was sent off 5/4 against Famous Clermont who won this race last season under Will Biddick, suggests they thought plenty of him to go well. The booking of Will Biddick is a huge boost here, not only because he won the race last season and clearly knows his way around the course, but he’s finished ahead of Lieutenant Rocco the last twice, latterly on Famous Clermont, and on his own horse Macklin before that, so clearly he thinks Lieutenant Rocco is a worthy mount.
This huge son of Shirocco is clearly hard to keep fit, but should Syd Hosie have him primed here then he’ll be a serious challenger. He’s a bold/ aggressive jumper who was the ante-post favourite for the 2021 Ultima after bolting up at Ffos Las on heavy ground though injury ruled him out. It took them a while to bring him back to form, but he sprung a surprise at Kempton last February before showing up very well at the Cross Country at Cheltenham from the front, and if he’s fit and ready then a similar performance would see him bang there. He brings plenty of back-class, such as finishing two lengths behind Protektorat in 2021 Dipper, and the underfoot conditions will be no issue for his galloping, high knee action.
Grand National Festival Trends – Day One
The Grand National Festival gets underway next Thursday, with the big race itself taking place on Saturday. Our trends man Dave Young, who has already analysed this year’s Grand National trends, now takes aim at day one, with analysis of every race on the card below. Manifesto Novices Chase Shortlist – FOUND A FIFTY &…
Fri 05 Apr 20244:40 Aintree (Mildmay) Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Irish Blaze 16/1 0.5pt EW 4 places + Sans Bruit 12/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
In recent years, the Red Rum handicap has favoured prominent runners and IRISH BLAZE can benefit from that track bias. The son of Imperial Monarch hasn’t been treated all that harshly by the British handicapper on a mark of 131 judged on his last two efforts on the other side of the sea, as he beat Captain’s Nephew six length at Down Royal in January on his second start for Cian Collins, with the runner up subsequently taking a Listed handicap at Fairyhouse, now rated 132, and the 15L 4th also just touched off in listed company now rated 128. Irish Blaze was then beaten nine lengths by Mister Policeman, who subsequently took a Thurles G3 now rated 149.
He’s posted his top three best RPR’s with his new yard who’re among the winners, and is clearly progressing well. He’ll be suited by the ground and Carl Miller takes valuable 7lbs off, who rode an excellent race from the front on Effernock Fizz at 33s in a listed contest at Fairyhouse last month.
SANS BRUIT was a bet for the column at Sandown in the Imperial Cup, and if you thought Paddy Brennan was schooling in public on Northern Air earlier this week, then have a look at Cobden on Sans Bruit and explain the difference! He was keen and admittedly lost a shoe, but there was little to no intention of Cobden putting him in the race and our money was done very quickly. Either side of that he ran two solid races, first at Doncaster where he traded short in running under Frost from the front before weakening after taking a keen hold on ground quick enough, but then he bounced back to form with a 3/4l second to the inform Prince Quali who was receiving 9lbs. The handicapper put him up 3lbs for that effort which would’ve just about guaranteed his place here had the field been originally full, and given Nicholls said chasing has been the aim with him then it’ll be no surprise should he be primed for this.
Frost retains the ride, and there’s not many better jockeys from the front in these handicap chases, with her record this season reading 36-7-18. Sans Bruit carries a featherweight of 10-2 and is officially 1lbs well in. His form on heavy going in France will stand him in good stead here and this experienced six year old, who has hit the frame in multiple graded races, will surely give it a good effort from the front now he’s shown signs of acclimatising to equine life on British shores.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Aintree Day 1 Value Punts
2.20 Aintree – Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo) – Intellotto 1pt EW 14/1 2 places
2.55 Aintree (Mildmay) William Hill Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Ahoy Senor 12/1 1pt EW 3 places
4:05 Aintree Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) – Lieutenant Rocco 28/1 1pt EW 5 places
4:40 Aintree (Mildmay) Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Irish Blaze 16/1 0.5pt EW 4 places + Sans Bruit 12/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
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