Nine runners are set to go to post in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, although the focus appears to be on the two at the head of the betting. Vandeek got the better of River Tiber in the Prix Morny last time out, but with better ground set to be more in the latter’s favour, the pair should be much closer this time around. There’s plenty of other big names in the mix though, including the unbeaten Task Force, Clive Cox’s Jasour and Gimcrack winner Lake Forest, so this should be one of the better renewals we’ve seen in recent years.
GG editor Tom Aldridge previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through all nine runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Aidan O’Brien land a record seventh win in the race, as BLACKBEARD ran out a decisive winner, with stablemate The Antarctic chasing him home:
Key Trends
- Nine of the last ten winners won their previous race.
- Nine of the last ten winners had already won a Group race, with four of those winning a Group 1.
- Seven of the last ten winners had an official rating of 111+.
- Seven of the last ten winners came from stalls 1-4.
- Only four favourites have won in the last 10 renewals.
- Trainer A P O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the race, with seven wins. He’s also won three of the last six renewals.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. ELITE STATUS
(Karl Burke/Clifford Lee)
The forecast better ground should be in his favour, after finishing well behind Vandeek in the Prix Morny last time out on very soft ground. That being said, he still has a lot to find with Vandeek and it’s difficult to see him reversing that form here. Karl Burke does have his yard in good form and he is capable on his day, but I’d be surprised to see him feature when it matters on Saturday.
2. GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS
(Mrs John Harrington/Shane Foley)
Jessica Harrington’s runner looks a huge price considering he was within two lengths of River Tiber at Ascot back in June when the pair last met. He’s since finished third in the Phoenix Stakes which isn’t a bad bit of form, although he was beaten over 5 lengths by the winner Bucanero Fuerte. Prior to his Ascot run he had won both his races, including a Group 3 at the Curragh, both with Shane Foley on board who remains on board here. I have to admit I’m struggling to see why he’s such a big price, and if bookies are paying extra places on this, I’ll definitely be having a bit E/W on him!
3. JASOUR
(Clive Cox/Richard Kingscote)
One of the likelier dangers to the top two in the betting, although he was soundly beaten by Vandeek in the Prix Morny. It’s likely he just didn’t appreciate the ground that day, as his other three races have all come on good ground or better. The return to a firmer surface should be a positive and having already beaten Lake Forest comfortably (who has since franked that form), I expect him to confirm that form and he’s one that is certainly in with a chance.
4. LAKE FOREST
(William Haggas/Tom Marquand)
William Haggas’ colt has some mixed bits of form to his name already, but looked to put it all together when winning the Gimcrack last time out at York. His only really poor run came at Newmarket when Cieren Fallon was on board, so it’s a positive to his chances that Tom Marquand is booked again for the ride (has been on board for his other three races). He does have two lengths to find with Jasour, and in truth I’m not convinced he’s improved enough to do that, but I wouldn’t rule him out of running into a place.
5. RIVER TIBER
(A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
One of the two fancied horses for this, and it’s easy to see why when you consider his form so far and the superb record trainer A P O’Brien’s has in the race. He ran out an impressive 10 length winner on debut which is no easy feat, before following up under a penalty easily enough next time out. He then stepped up to 6f at Royal Ascot, where he made it a perfect 3/3 by edging out Army Ethos in a thrilling finish to win the Coventry Stakes. His most recent run saw him finish third behind Vandeek in the Prix Morny, but this ground will be much more to his liking and it’s difficult to see him finishing out of the top two.
6. SKETCH
(Freddie & Martyn Meade/Oisin Murphy)
The outsider of the field has plenty to find to get involved in this, with the 97-rated runner’s form hardly screaming out for a Group 1 test. After an easy enough win on debut, he was then beaten a huge 18 legnths by Vandeek in the Richmond Stakes during the Goodwood Festival, and although that was on soft ground, it’s hard to see the return to better ground being enough to reverse that form. He finished third in Listed company last time out, so the step up to a Group 1 seems a strange decision to say the least! He looks way out of his depth here, and I don’t think he’ll manage to beat a single rival home on Saturday.
7. STARLUST
(Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch)
Starlust looks to be Ralph Beckett’s second string in here, but he does have some good bits of form to his name and he’s consistent – he’s finished in the top two in his last five races. His last run saw him edge out Seven Questions and Array to win the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton, and that pair have since boosted the form by fighting out the Mill Reef Stakes last week (Array came out on top). He’s 3/3 when Hector Crouch is on board but this does look a much harder race than he’s used to, so although he’s consistent, I can’t see him troubling the higher rated horses in this.
8. TASK FORCE
(Ralph Beckett/Rossa Ryan)
The Frankel colt is 2/2 in his career currently, although hasn’t faced much in quality opposition to date. The form of his Listed Ripon win hasn’t worked out great yet, but he’s done all that’s been asked of him and he is unbeaten, so you do have to give him some credit. However, I feel he’ll have to improve considerably to be in the mix here and I think he might find the step up to Group 1 company a bit much on this occasion.
9. VANDEEK
(Simon & Ed Crisford/James Doyle)
Simon & Ed Crisford’s unbeaten star has looked a class act in all three races, perhaps most notably when finishing comfortably clear of his chief market rival in here River Tiber last time out in the Prix Morny. Andrea Atzeni has been on board for all his races so far but James Doyle has been booked here, which is no bad thing considering the form he is in. He’s untested on good or better ground but I don’t feel that will be an issue and he looks the one they’ll all have to beat.
Big-Race Verdict
Let’s start by just saying how this should be a fantastic renewal, there’s plenty in here who look like they could be future stars. However, this looks to be all about the top two in the betting and of the two I’d have to side with VANDEEK to confirm Prix Morny form with River Tiber. He looks a real star and I don’t think the ground will be an issue for him, so he gets my vote. At crazy odds I also have to give a mention to Givemethebeatboys, who I think is massively overpriced and is capable of running into a place. He wasn’t beaten far by River Tiber when the pair met at Royal Ascot and I think he should be much shorter in the betting.
SELECTION: VANDEEK (win – 15/8 generally) + GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS (E/W – 33/1 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 4.40pm Thursday 28th September*
Check out this weeks Weekend Watch, where Andrew gives his tips for the ITV action on Saturday alongside Dave Young and Kate Tracey. The trio also give their picks for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday:
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