Saturday’s feature race at Newbury is the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes (3.15pm), the race has thrown up some very smart horses over the past couple of decades, including Dark Angel, Lord Shanakill, Ribchester & Harry Angel.
Last year’s winner Sakheer looked bound for Group 1 company but met with a setback this season and hasn’t been up to his best. On what we’ve seen so far it would be somewhat of a surprise if any of this field could live up to the previous roll of honour’s achievements but they have time on their side and look a nice bunch.
GG editor Dan Corbally previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Roger Varian’s Sakheer power to an impressive victory, giving trainer Roger Varian a second win in the race from the past four renewals:
Key Trends
- 6 of the last 12 winners has won on their previous start
- 9 of the last 12 winners had their last ru within 34 days of the Mill Reef
- 2 of the last 12 winners had won a Group race previously
- 6 out of the last 12 winners were rated 100+
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Haatem
(Richard Hannon/Sean Levey)
Took the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood’s Glorious festival meeting, for which he carries a 3lbs penalty in this field. He didn’t manage to back that effort up in the Gimcrack (no explanation offered for a poor performance) but the Vintage Stakes form received a healthy boost when the runner-up, Iberian, came out and won the Champagne Stakes in taking fashion. Has had a busy season and while he’s shown himself as useful, the percentage call is to oppose at the prices.
2. Array
(Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy)
Extremely interesting pedigree, as you’d expect from the Juddmonte operation, with this colt’s dam being a half-sister to Frankel. Has been a little expensive to follow so far, running four times and going off 7/4 or shorter on each occasion, obliging just the once at a prohibitive 2/13. Bumped into his old-rival Starlust, who took his measure on debut, when running in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes last time out. The body of his form leaves him with something to find in the context of this contest but no surprise to see him take another step forward and keep improving.
3. Matters Most
(Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch)
Another off the seemingly endless conveyor belt of exciting horses at Ralph Beckett’s this year and like many of the yard’s juvenile runners, he took a massive step forward from his first run to his second when winning at Salisbury. Has come unstuck when tackling Listed company on two occasions but plenty of positives to be taken from his latest effort when runner-up behind his highly-touted stablemate, Task Force. Had Seven Questions (suffered interference) behind him by a neck on that occasion and could yet have more to offer.
4. Mister Sketch
(Eve Johnson Houghton/Charles Bishop)
Snapped up by the free-spending Wathnan racing after a wide margin maiden success at Salisbury last time out and looks a key player on the back of that effort. Hung left that day suggesting there may still be improvement to come from this Territories colt and he hails from a shrewd outfit. Any ease underfoot looks manageable and with the projected improvement he could take a hand in proceeding at the business end of the race.
5. Red Zone Hero
(Michael Bell/Tom Marquand)
Supplemented for this contest by connections who shared he was in the “form of his life” in a recent interview along with with the fact that he “should relish the ground”. Despite connections confidence he does have a fair amount to find, however he’s a half-brother to the Group 1 placed Son Of Rest and may keep improving on his first foray into pattern company. Not taken lightly as is clearly in rude health, but looks to be paying for a place.
6. Roman Emperor
(John Ryan/Kevin Stott)
Trainer isn’t afraid to throw one in at the deep-end and on second start this son of Magna Grecia will need to find plenty to score today. However, at current odds of 50/1, he’s unlikely to disgrace himself. Fine debut to take third behind two colts rated in the 90s now, Son & Soldier’s Gold. Like the previously mentioned Red Zone Hero he’s almost certainly playing for a place, but on his first start since being gelded, with improvement likely, he may outrun the ‘outsider’ tag.
7. Seven Questions
(George Scott/Callum Shepherd)
Another who has been kept busy this season, having his eighth run of the season here, arriving on the back of a very narrow defeat in the aforementioned Sirenia Stakes with Array in arrears when beaten a head by Starlust. Made most that day and that could again be the game plan as those tactics seemed to suit more than when held up and meeting plenty of trouble in the Ripon Champion Two-Year-Old Stakes, narrowly behind today’s rival Matters Most. If adopting those front-running tactics and avoiding trouble he has as good a chance as any.
8. Spanish Phoenix
(Andrew Balding/James Doyle)
Highly tried after a comfortable maiden success at the second time of asking on soft ground. Ran with credit in the Coventry Stakes but hasn’t cut much ice, finished 6th of 9 in the Superlative nearly 5 lengths behind Haatem, before finishing last behind the same rival in the Vintage Stakes last time out. Needs to get back on track, looks suited by plenty of ease so the more rainfall the better.
Big-Race Verdict
Probably not a vintage renewal of the Mill Reef but a tightly-knit field provides an interesting betting heat nevertheless. Mister Sketch has been created plenty of hype after his authoritative success at Sailsbury last time out, but the vote goes to SEVEN QUESTIONS who has shown himself as a more than capable operator at a high level. The selection hasn’t been beaten far in Listed and Group 3 runs the last twice and rattled up a hat-trick before that. The re-opposing Matters Most is respected but may struggle to confirm the recent form with Seven Questions, should he avoid trouble. 50/1 shot at time of writing Roman Emperor may do much better than those odds suggest having only had one very promising start and since been gelded, should the dead 8 arrive he’d appeal as an each-way play.
SELECTION: SEVEN QUESTIONS (7/2 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 4:15pm Friday 22nd September*
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