Now training with a permit alongside son Charlie, Mark Johnston has an excellent recent record at Carlisle. With a 31% strike rate at the track since the start of 2021, punters would have recorded a profit of over 45 points to a level stake. We have had a look at their five runners on the card at the course tomorrow, alongside FansBet, who are offering a 200% Welcome Bonus Up To £200.
Decoding (1.10 Carlisle)
Useful apprentice Ryan Sexton will be aboard for the Johnstons in Carlisle’s opener. The young rider has an 18% strike rate on horses aged four and upwards.
DECODING would be one such horse and although her form is not inspiring, she could easily benefit from the switch to turf. She was down the field in three maidens, but did show a little more promise on her handicap debut at Chelmsford when fourth of seven in April.
The filly was last over that same course and distance next time out, but she was hampered at the start and then raced extremely wide turning in. She is down 3lb for that effort to a mark of just 52, which could easily be workable if far less goes wrong for her.
She is a Dawn Approach half-sister to a Listed winner for Jim Bolger, so it is likely she will be winning at some stage. The Johnston team have already raced her regularly since February and she may well prove a horse who develops with experience.
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Queen Of Deauville (1.45 Carlisle)
One of the yard’s winners at Carlisle was QUEEN OF DEAUVILLE, who scored at the track recently on her debut.
The daughter of Showcasing was a ready winner of a novice event here ten days ago. Ridden close to the pace by Franny Norton, she picked up like a horse trained readily for the day, and she won by 2¾ lengths, impressive for a juvenile without any previous experience.
She has a 7lb penalty here, which may be tricky as she will be giving 2lb to two unraced colts, one of whom represents powerful ownership. She is aso up against Carmela, who was fifth in LIsted company recently for David Loughnane after also winning on debut.
The yard have an 18% strike rate with their two-year-olds in 2022 and this forward type may continue to benefit from racing early in the season here.
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Liv Lucky (3.30 Carlisle)
LIV LUCKY had made a promising start to her career last April, but being campaigned on the all-weather over the winter did not appear to benefit her.
She was unable to win on either polytrack or tapeta, nor has she managed it on turf. However, her two career starts on turf have been among her most promising, when second in maiden company at Thirsk, then third in a handicap over 7f at this track earlier this month.
That most recent effort came on soft ground, with her previous turf run on good-to-firm, which looked to suit her more. A return to that kind of surface could easily see her go closer again on an unchanged mark of 59. Earlier in her career, a rating such as that would have looked very generous for her.
Another factor which could help is this return to 6f. That looks more suitable given her best performances, as well as on pedigree.
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Military Two Step (4.00 Carlisle)
Based on her career to date, there simply may not be a trip that’s far enough on the flat for MILITARY TWO STEP.
She would be a fine candidate for a National Hunt career at some stage, but she is lethal enough on the level when presented with chances. She absolutely romped home in a 2m handicap, her first over a long distance trip, last July, winning by 12 lengths off a mark of 81. Group race company could easily have beckoned from there.
However, she subsequently struggled at trips below 2m and on soft ground at Pontefract. Her reappearance this term, when second at Wolverhampton, was promising, albeit she may not be the hardiest. She was intimidated out of things at Kempton thereafter and was flat on her return to turf at Ripon.
One big positive is that she is only 4lb above her last winning mark now and this race may provide close to her ideal conditions. She is still only a four-year-old, so a recovery of her form is well within the question.
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Gobi Sunset (4.30 Carlisle)
This will be GOBI SUNSET’s third run in May, as well as his fifth in the space of six weeks. The Johnstons are seeking improvement from him by racing him very regularly.
His last win was over a year ago, but he has been placed six times since, with five of those resulting in second placed finishes. Marks in the 80s have always proved slightly beyond him, as they did again when a length second to an odds-on favourite at Wolverhampton last time out.
Back on turf over 7f, he is up 2lb to a rating of 82, one at which he has never won off. He is also slightly more consistent on the all-weather, albeit he has won more races on grass.
Nevertheless, four of those aforementioned five runner-up finishes have come off marks above the one he is currently on. He is likely to be competitive at least and is an each-way price.
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