The Group 1 Nassau Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1m2f is the feature contest at Glorious Goodwood on Thursday, where we get to see last years winner battle it out with one of the stars of the flat season so far, a multiple Group 1 winner coming over from France. What a contest we have on our hands, this is a race to very much look forward to.
Jake Russell (@JakeRuss1000) is on hand to take us through the main trends and statistics on the race, as well as providing us with a runner by runner guide before providing his final verdict on the race:
Odds correct at time of posting – 2pm 1st August.
Race Trends + Statistics
- 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 3, With 4 of the last 12 winners being aged 4 or older.
- 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting (Winsilli, Sultanina and Deirdre being the exceptions and winning at bigger prices)
- 1 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Goodwood, 1 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Goodwood.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 10 furlongs, 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 10 furlongs.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 111 or higher (Winsili and Sultanina being the horses rated lower than 111 to have won the Nassau Stakes)
- 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous Group 1 win.
Key Runners
Blue Rose Cen
Christopher Head and Aurelien Lemaitre (11/10 Best Price)
Where better to start than the multiple Group 1 winner Blue Rose Cen who is one of the best and most exciting mile to middle distance horses in racing, really showing that last time out when winning the Prix de Diane Longines at Chantilly, with Never Ending Story 4 lengths in behind. Before that however she won the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) with Lindy just under 2 lengths in behind, she was pushed along early in that contest but stayed on superbly heading to the line, showing the step up in trip will be her bag. To which she duly obliged by winning on her next start, the first time she ran over the 1m2f trip. She took on some real cracking 3yo fillies that day, and really couldn’t have won any easier, being up with the pace throughout, before asserting with a furlong and a half to go. She pulled well clear heading towards the line, and won like a real nice type, who is probably still improving with each passing run, with the career record of 7 wins in just 9 career runs. Previous statistics show that 3yo’s have a great record in this race, with 8 of the last 12 winners being aged 3, which included last years winner Nashwa who opposes Blue Rose Cen in the race this year, with Nashwa having to give the 3yo a heft 7lb age allowance. The form of her run at Chantilly last time is yet to be franked, but the ones that finished close to Blue Rose Cen have not run as yet, so only time will tell if that form is top quality or not. She is a very exciting runner, conditions will more than suit her as she seems versatile on that front, and the racing world can’t wait to see her strut her stuff on the UK soil.
Nashwa
John & Thady Gosden and Hollie Doyle (2/1 Best Price)
Although we probably have the most exciting 3yo filly coming over to run in this contest in the shape of Blue Rose Cen, and 3yo’s do have a terrific record in this race, it would be silly to write off Nashwa, to which a fair few of us did last time out in the Falmouth. She won this contest last year as a 3yo, which probably wasn’t as competitive as the race this year, however she clearly knows what it takes to win a race of this nature. She has already had the three runs this season, and her first two runs suggested she takes a little time to get race fit now adays, which was clear to see last time, as she headed into the Group 1 Falmouth over a mile, on a little recovery mission due to being beaten on her first two starts of the season when she should have won. But she certainly put those first two runs behind her, when hacking up over what most thought was an inadequate trip, with Remarquee 5 lengths in behind. Clearly the race did fall apart somewhat, with the favourite disappointing, but take nothing away from Nashwa’s excellent performance. She is now clearly thriving and ready to go, back at this longer trip in a race she won last year, on conditions to suit, she could upset the French raider. However she has to give her 7lb’s due to age allowance, which might really be the turning point in this fascinating contest.
Al Husn
Roger Varian and Jim Crowley (9/1 Best Price)
The Roger Varian trained filly has an excellent career record to date, with 6 wins in just 9 career starts, including a half a length win over Nashwa at Newcastle on the all-weather in the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies Stakes. She was seen to best effect in Handicaps last season, winning two at Newmarket last September and October, not particularly winning in taking fashion, but always doing enough to win. She then lined up for the first time into Group company at Newmarket in May, for her first run of the season, finishing 6 lengths behind Via Sistina in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes. She was comprehensively beaten that day, and Nashwa has comprehensively beaten Via Sistina last time out in the Falmouth Stakes. However, Al Husn did beat Nashwa last time out, so the lines of form do look fairly muddled and hard to read. But Nashwa clearly wasn’t fit enough that day, which did hand the race to Al Husn, however you can only beat what is put in front of you. She is rated 8 to 10lb’s less than the main two in the market, and has to give weight to the 3yo French filly, so Al Husn would have to improve remarkedly to land a contest of this nature. But she hasn’t been seen since that Newcastle performance, therefore it’s clear to see this is the obvious big race target for her, and she will arrive her fresher than the main two protagonists, plus this race can be known to produce a few bigger priced winners in the past, so could she follow that trend. I do just feel however she needs to really improve to beat two top class Group 1 fillies.
Above The Curve
Joseph O’Brien and Ryan Moore (16/1 Best Price)
Ryan Moore won this race two times in succession with Minding and Winter in 2016 and 2017 respectively for Aidan O’Brien, but he looks set to have a ride for Aidan’s son Joseph O’Brien with Above The Curve. She was the winner of a Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp last May, and was sparingly raced between then and the end of the season, where she won a Group 2 at The Curragh. She has had three runs this season, coming last on her first run which clearly shown she very much needed the run to progress, before going on to win the Group 2 Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud, before going on to come a decent 3rd in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh, only beaten by just under 4 lengths by Via Sistina. She is clearly a Group 2 performer, but I have reservations on whether she is a real Group 1 horse anymore, and like the rest of the field she has to give the French raider 7lb’s for age allowance, making it this task even harder for her. She would have to really improve from her last run to win this.
Caernarfon
Jack Channon and Connor Beasley (20/1 Best Price)
Jack Channon is a new trainer to the ranks, taking over from his father Mick Channon, and he has started very well with 26 winners already this season. And Caernarfon could potentially be a stable star for him, which will be excellent for him so early on into his training career. She is the 2nd 3yo in the race, which the previous trends and statistics for this race favour, however she would need to improve a fair bit to land a classy contest of this nature. She ran an absolute stormer to finish 4th in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on her first start of the season, fairly well beaten by just over 10 lengths, however she was slow away and did run on well in the later stages of the contest. She then lined up in the Oaks at Epsom and arguably confirmed the promise of that first run of the season by coming 3rd, to only be beaten by 2 lengths, but could have finished a lot closer had she not be short of room at the start and jump the path later on in the race. She then took a massive step down in class when running in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes last time, where she finished 6th, only beaten by 3 lengths. She seems a bit of a tricky ride, as she tends to race further back in the field, so this smaller field might suit, however she would have to really improve on ratings to win a race of this nature. Although this might be a little bit past winning, I really do feel she will land a Group contest or two later on in the season.
Never Ending Story
Aidan O’Brien and Tom Marquand (40/1 Best Price)
It’s very rare to see Aidan O’Brien with a horse who is the outsider of the field, and it’s also quite rare to not see Ryan Moore riding one of his no matter the price. Never Ending Story is the 3rd 3yo runner in this race and by far the most experienced 3yo runner in this. She won a Group 3 1000 Guineas trial in April, before going on to run well in the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks, where she came 5th and 2nd, but was beaten by Blue Rose Cen by a combined 9 lengths. Her last two runs have been quite disappointing, finishing 7th in the Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh, before going on to finish last in the Falmouth Stakes last time, fading away quickly and tamely. She has it all to do looking at her previous form, especially her last two runs, therefore I can see why she is the price she is. The Aidan O’Brien filly really needs to bounce back to get anywhere near these.
Big-Race Verdict:
Again another small field for the feature contest of the day on Thursday, therefore I really just can’t see past the French Raider Blue Rose Cen, who is clearly a very talented filly, who will just keep getting better with each passing run. Conditions will suit, and statistics favour the younger horses in this race with 8 of the last 12 previous winners being 3yo’s. She is incredibly exciting and many in the racing world can’t wait to see what she is all about on UK soil, however she takes on the older horses for the very first time. It’s a shame there isn’t more than six runners, as I feel Caernarfon will run into the frame at decent odds, however I can only see her coming 3rd behind Nashwa and Blue Rose Cen in this. She deserves a shoutout as she has ran some phenomenal races earlier on this season and will definitely be winning Group contests at some stage.
SELECTION – Blue Rose Cen (To Win – 11/10 Best Price)
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