Newmarket’s July Festival, one of the highlights of the summer calendar, begins on Thursday and in anticipation of three days of top-class racing our Editor has identified three horses entered at this week’s July Festival that represent ante-post value. Check these out below, along with a new customer sign-up at bet365, which offers £50 in Free Bets, when you join and bet £10.
BEAR PROFIT – (3:00 Thursday, Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap) 16/1
The betting for Thursday’s 6f 3yos handicap is unexpectedly headed by Khanjar, who could well be a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper, but he does look mightily short given that he’s up 9lb in a significantly stronger race (form of his Ripon win has received knocks).
At the prices, the value at this stage appears to lie with the Stuart Williams-trained BEAR PROFIT.
This son of Profitable only made the track as recently as April, when running out a very cosy winner of a Chelmsford novice. He hasn’t managed to supplement that in three subsequent runs, yet caught the eye when third (beaten a half-length) in a course and distance handicap a fortnight ago.
Bear Profit raced very freely through the early part of that race and looked disadvantaged by making his challenge by the far rail, often not the place to be here. That considered, it wouldn’t a huge leap to suggest he was the best horse in that race, and it’s perhaps a little generous therefore of the handicapper to leave him on an untouched mark of 82.
A bigger field and stronger pace could help Bear Profit settle better here, and that previous experience over the track certainly won’t have done him any harm. The provisional booking of Hayley Turner suggests that connections are indeed heading for this contest, and as such, it would be no shock to see his current 16/1 odds a whole lot shorter come Thursday.
Tomorrow’s Racing
TRAWLERMAN – (3:00 Friday, bet365 Trophy) 12/1
Candleford was hugely impressive when demolishing a Royal Ascot handicap three weeks ago, yet the handicapper has taken a very dim view of that by shoving the 4yo up a huge 13lb, and with that huge weight swing now in his favour, it wouldn’t be a great shock to see TRAWLERMAN reverse the form.
John & Thady Gosden’s gelding was only eleventh (beaten 14l) when sent off the 4/1J favourite for that Royal Ascot assignment, but he was given a very strange ride there considering he was drawn in stall 3, sitting miles off the pace at the back of the field and never really given the chance to show what he was capable of.
That proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back for the Dettori/Gosden team (last ride for that stable before ‘sabbatical’) and for all sorts of reasons it just looked like a run worth forgiving.
Prior to that, Trawlerman had overcome a wide trip to land a 1m2f Chelmsford handicap, looking a strong stayer in the process, but it was his start prior, at Sandown, that marks Trawlerman down as a potentially well-handicapped horse.
Trawlerman was sent off just 11/2 there for the Group 3 Sandown Classic Trial, a race which has since produced a whole host of classy horses such as Adayar, Yibir and Lone Eagle. That form taken in isolation suggests that Trawlerman retains plenty of scope off a mark of 98, particularly over a trip that both his pedigree and running style suggest he will thrive over.
James Doyle looks set to return to the saddle on Friday, and he’s 2-3 when riding Trawlerman. If he rides the 4yo more positively expect him to outrun the current odds of 12/1.
STAR OF ORION – (3:50 Saturday, bet365 Bunbury Cup) 16/1
STAR OF ORION was marked down as a Royal Ascot eyecatcher when midfield in the Buckingham Palace Stakes last month, where he made his challenge from a disadvantageous track position and, most notably, endured a nightmare run from the back of the field where he was stopped 2f out.
He bids to gain compensation in the competitive Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on Saturday, and his 16/1 odds look a little too big to pass over.
On seasonal debut Star Of Orion was an eyecatching eighth in the Victoria Cup, making his challenge from the centre of the track in a race where six of the first seven home raced near side. The fifth-home Ropey Guest (also raced centre) has since finished a 40/1 second at Royal Ascot when given a more favourable draw.
Star Of Orion proved his effectiveness over this track and trip when running out an impressive length and a half winner of a handicap here just over 12 months ago, and he’s now just 2lb above that winning mark.
Granted a little better luck in running Star Of Orion certainly looks handicapped to win again, represents a stable nicely ticking along at present, and has proven form at this time of year, so rates a solid play in an admittedly strong contest.
Newmarket July Festival Antepost Selections
BEAR PROFIT – (3:00 Thursday, Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap) 16/1
TRAWLERMAN – (3:00 Friday, bet365 Trophy) 12/1
STAR OF ORION – (3:50 Saturday, bet365 Bunbury Cup) 16/1
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