A small but select field of six line up for the feature Listed contest at Ascot on Friday, where the 3YO’s who could potentially be staying types for next season look to battle it our for the £56,000 winning prize fund.
A few nice types have won this in the past, including Big Orange who won this as a 3yo in 2015 before going on to Gold Cup glory in 2017, as well as Goodwood Cup glory in 2015 and 2016. Do we potentially have a Gold Cup winner in the contest this year?
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Kevin Philippart De Foy’s EL HABEEB ran out a game winner, holding off the late challenge of Giavellotto:
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Chesspiece
(Simon & Ed Crisford/William Buick)
A horse that I thought had a real outsiders chance for the St Leger last time, who has shown some real decent form heading into the final classic of the season. Although he finished 6th and was well beaten by a little over 13 lengths, I still think that was a fairly decent run from the Crisford’s horse, who steps back down in class here to Listed company, a class of race he has already won at this season at Hamilton.
Chesspiece has some decent form previously, including a 3rd place finish in the Queen’s Vase at the Royal meeting, and a 2nd at Goodwood behind Desert Hero who ran very well in the St Leger a few weekends back. As I mentioned in my St Leger article, Godolphin rarely purchase horses during a season when owned by other owners, so they must have seen something in this horse to take the plunge and buy him. This step down in class will suit, and he finished ahead of Middle Earth in the St Leger last time. He is the highest rated runner in the contest, and he probably deserves to be at this stage. William Buick is booked to ride, as he gets onboard for the first time. Although he has to give most of these weight, I think he is well clear on ratings so should be landing this contest, before going onto potentially bigger things as a stayer next season.
2. Middle Earth
(John & Thady Gosden/Oisin Murphy)
Another horse heading into this off the back of a run in the St Leger at Doncaster last time, he probably did underperform that day, finishing 7th beaten by 16 lengths. He is only lightly raced with just the five career runs to his name. The Gosden runner did sweat up badly before the St Leger, so maybe the buzz of the crowd and the experience of the big race day did get to him, as he is a young inexperienced horse, or maybe he just wasn’t good enough on the day.
Before that disappointing run last time he was quite the progressive type, coming 2nd on his first two starts before going on to beat Naqeeb in a Novice contest, then win the Melrose on his first crack at 1m6f. This is just his 2nd run over 1m6f, so ultimately he might adjust to the staying trips with each passing run, and like Chesspiece he does take a huge step down in class here. He is a 102 rated horse, and I feel it is too soon to write him off as yet, having already gotten the better of Naqeeb this season, although he is now 2lb’s lower than that horse in the ratings and the Haggas runner could still be improving at this sort of trip. He’s an interesting runner, but does need to put that slightly disappointing effort from last time behind him.
3. Naqeeb
(William Haggas/Jim Crowley)
A horse that arrives here in a real rich vein of form, and unlike the other two main protagonist in the field, he arrives here not on a little recovery mission. Like Middle Earth, the Nathaniel colt is very well bred being related to both Baaeed and Hukum, some relations to have there. He was never seen as a 2yo, and did take a few races to get his head in front as a 3yo, which eventually came on his 3rd career run. Beaten by just a nose by Middle Earth in a Novice contest over 1m4f at Newmarket on good to soft ground, he finally got his head in front via a Novice contest at Kempton, where he hacked up by 10 lengths, although he was well odds-on, so deserved to really. It was his performance last time out that caught the eye for most, when tackling the 1m6f trip for the very first time in a decent field, which was a class 2 contest at Haydock. He was sent off the market leader that day, and although coming down the Haydock straight he did look to be a little in trouble, when push came to shove he stayed on by far the best to win by just over a length, going through the line very well.
He put in a Racing Post Rating of 113 that day, which is the highest achieved by any horse in this field in any of their runs, and given he was a winner last time out, the horse will arrive here full of confidence. I think he could be a real nice prospect for the staying contests next season, the more experience he gets the better he will become. Although the main two in the field take a step down in class, and he rises in class, I think he is good enough to win a contest of this nature, for a trainer who won this with Harris Tweed back in 2010.
4. Ndaawi
(Andrew Balding/Rob Hornby)
No disrespect to the Andrew Balding runner, I do think it is realistically between the top rated runners in this field, who are all rated 108,104,102 and 97, a fair way above his son of Cracksman. That being said, Cracksman is having a fantastic season as a sire, with Ace Impact being out of him, who went on to win the Arc last weekend. Unlike most of these, Ndaawi ran a fair few times as a 2yo, and did win on two occasions over the mile, before being pitched into a Group 1 in France as his final 2yo run, so connections think there is some talent under the bonnet.
Last seen finishing last but one in the Queens Vase at the royal meeting, that was over 100 days ago and has since been gelded. Which can either work wonders or takes a little time to bed in. His run in the Queens Vase was pretty poor when beaten by just under 35 lengths, and he doesn’t scream out to appreciate the 1m6f here again. He has a fair bit to do on ratings, and the Gelding operation would have to have worked wonders for him to beat some very nice staying prospects in this contest.
5. Climate Friendly
(Jane Chapple-Hyam/Neil Callan)
One of the more experienced runners in the field with 8 runs to her name, she does get a few pounds off the boys in this so that could play very much to her strengths. This will be her first time tackling the 1m6f trip though, which does make her somewhat of an unknown quantity. A winner in a Novice contest at Newmarket over 1m4f on good ground, she is yet to win since then but has been running well in a few decent contests recently. A 3rd beaten just 4 lengths behind Sweet Memories in a Listed contest at Newmarket, before going on to finish 4th in another Listed race, this time at York, only beaten a length. She was outstayed late on that day, therefore this step up to 1m6f might be a little concern, and she is a little way off the main runners on ratings, but she does get weight off the boys and is running well at present.
6. Lmay
(John & Thady Gosden/Kieran Shoemark)
A real interesting runner for the Gosden team, who does actually have some Group placed form previously. She, like Climate Friendly, does get a little weight off the boys in this, and she isn’t too far behind them on ratings. A winner of a Newbury Maiden back in June, she has been mixing it up in some decent company recently, including the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies Stakes at Doncaster in September, which is probably a career best effort from her. She was only beaten just over a length by Sumo Sam and One Evening who both look to be decent types with plenty more wins in them. She did lose 2nd in the final stages, but did keep on when the other horse passed her, so there could be a question mark on whether the 1m6f does actually suit, but this more galloping track like Ascot could play to her strengths. That run last time was her first crack at the 1m6f trip, and she ran very well. She is now back down into Listed company, getting weight off most of these. The Gosden filly is an interesting runner, who could be more at home over the staying trips, Lmay is certainly one to keep an eye on.
Big-Race Verdict
I think realistically the St Leger form/runners could prove too good and win a contest of this nature stepping markedly down in class, but I feel it sometimes pays to side with the form horse who is coming off the back of a career best effort last time out. That’s not to say Chesspiece and Middle Earth runs in the St Leger were bad, I just feel NAQEEB will be the one to improve past them at this trip. His performance last time was very good at Haydock, and it was his first taste of these staying like trips, where he powered clear through the line to win nicely. He has produced the highest Racing Post Rating of any of these, and I feel there is even more improvement to come from the son of Nathaniel, who is related to both Group 1 performers Baaeed and Hukum, and I think this lad very much join them in time, as a stayer.
SELECTION: Naqeeb – To Win (7/4 William Hill)
*odds correct at time of posting – 5pm Wednesday 4th October*
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