Only four runners will go to post for the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot on Friday afternoon, but it’s set to be a competitive renewal of the contest at the Berkshire track.
GG writer Joe Napier previews this year’s race, before giving his verdict on who he expects to come out on top.
The feature race on day one of Ascot’s pre-Christmas meeting is the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase. Its absence last year concluded a dominant run from the top two yards in England, with Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls having claimed the last three runnings between them. From an equine perspective, Grade 1 winners Remittance Man, Simonsig and Politologue all feature on the honours’ board.
With the race arguably responsible for the beginning of racing’s festive feast, Joe Napier provides insight into every runner in this year’s small and select field.Though there was no race in 2022, the most recent winner in 2021 was Pic d’Orhy for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden.
Key Race Trends
- Every winner since 2011 was aged either 5 or 6
- 5/2 is the biggest price of any of the last ten winners
- Only one of the last ten winners had previously run more than twice over fences
- Seven of the last ten winners had won their prior start, although neither of the last two have
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Might I
(H Fry/J Burke)
Harry Fry’s charge remains the only horse to ever go off favourite against Constitution Hill under rules. While that would prove a thankless task, he has proved remarkably consistent since, with form figures of 32/824-521. That he has only won once would be the concern, though he has finished in the frame in an Aintree Grade 1, and the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival.
His debut over fences saw him put in a game effort behind the vastly more experienced Complete Unknown, before he was presented victory in a match when his only rival’s saddle slipped. It was bold of the yard to enter him into such deep waters for his chasing debut, which shows he remains in very high regard.
Djelo
(V Williams/C Deutsch)
Venetia Williams’ horses have been flying again this season after a quiet 2022/23. Djelo may prove a serious beneficiary of the yard’s uptake, as he was a fair way below the best of his rivals over hurdles, but has won both of his starts so far over fences in handicap company.
His chase debut form has worked out excellently, and the omission of fences only opened up the possibility of him succeeding up in trip. However, over just 100 yards further, he was even more impressive against some unexposed rivals at Newbury and should prove up to Graded company as a novice this term. It is worth noting, however, that his worst run over hurdles came at this track.
KANDOO KID
(P Nicholls/H Cobden)
Kandoo Kid takes up the mantle as Nicholls’ only representative in the late absence of Hermes Allen. While still at the bottom of the field on ratings he has made inroads on based on his previous two runs, both of which came at Newbury.
He was a luckless second in the first of those, having pulled 32 lengths clear of the third, but was then a slightly fortunate winner, up 6lb, on his next handicap start. A mistake by the runner-up gave him the impetus, and he also shaped like a trip further than this will ultimately suit better. His trainer has won this four times since 2014 though, which ensures he has to be treated with the utmost respect.
Unexpected Party
(D Skelton/H Skelton)
Dan Skelton’s grey finally got off the mark at the seventh attempt at Chepstow in October. He had been very highly tried in his first season as a novice though, twice finishing behind Stage Star, as well as being third to both Jonbon and recent Coral Gold Cup hero Datsalrightgino.
His win came on his first try this term, defeating Nicholls’ Knappers Hill, who has won since, and another fifth behind Stage Star was respectable enough in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. However, a change of tactics to front-running did not work out in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase back at two miles, and a 5lb Grade 2 winning penalty might make him vulnerable for a place.
Big-Race Verdict
Hermes Allen’s rerouting to the Kauto Star has opened this race right up from a betting perspective. Might I is, remarkably, facing his biggest field over fences to date despite there only being four runners, so despite him potentially having the most talent, he is worth passing over in favour of DJELO. Venetia Williams’ charge is the only horse in the lineup who fits the trends age bracket of 5-6, and has looked upwardly mobile over fences. Both handicap successes were claimed with authority, so although his worst run over hurdles was at Ascot, that can be forgiven. Unexpected Party’s experience could well stand him in good stead back at a trip he will prefer, though his 5lb penalty may be too much of a burden, while Kandoo Kid is respected given the yard he hails from despite having the most to find on form.
- Djelo
- Might I
- Unexpected Party
SELECTION: Djelo 2/1
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – 12:45pm Thursday 21st December*
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