The Northumberland Plate is a notoriously difficult race to pick the winner of, a very testing 2-mile trip around the all-weather course of Newcastle, with a 19-runner strong field looking like they will be heading to post.
I will be taking a look at the main protagonists in the field, as well as a few at bigger prices that could run a huge race, before giving my verdict on who I’ll be backing to come out on top.
Odds correct at time of posting – 3.50pm 29th June
Key Runners
Post Impressionist
(William Haggas/Tom Marquand)
A horse that has yet to tackle this sort of trip, he was a very impressive winner of a York Handicap over 1m6f in October last year, which was the last time he was seen on the track. He has shaped to suit this sort of test in stamina, as the further they went at York that day, the further he went clear to win readily in the end. He has been on the track for more than 260 days, and against some race fit rivals who could be running off a fairly decent handicap marks, this might be a step too far for him at this stage, especially given his skinny price at present, and draw 19 isn’t ideal (Draw 14 or lower seems to produce the most winners). However, Tom Marquand is booked to ride, and the William Haggas horses are flying at present with Tom on board, he could be the best horse in the race on a lenient mark, but there is a chance to be taken on him.
Adjuvant
(Michael Bell/Billy Loughnane)
One of the horses that heads into this contest with race fitness to his name already this season, this looks a real nice ride for young Billy Loughnane. The Michael Bell horse was 11 lengths behind Post Impressionist in that York Handicap over 1m6f in October, but Adjuvant looks to be a better horse this year, especially over the staying trips. He was a neck second behind the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes runner up HMS President on seasonal return at Newmarket, before going on to run at Newmarket again where he won by 2 lengths pulling away heading to the line. He has been raised to a new mark of 94, which is a career high for him, but he seems to thriving at present so he cannot be discounted lightly in this field. His draw of 9 is a huge plus, as plenty of the last few running’s of this race have been won by draws 14 or lower. This could be the perfect chance for young Billy to get his first big race name under his ever-growing CV.
Zoffee
(Hugo Palmer/Ben Curtis)
A horse that always brings plenty of attention when contesting in these staying handicaps, he was a decent enough horse over obstacles for Philip Hobbs before thriving under his new lease of life running in flat staying handicaps. Arguably a career best performance for the Hugo Palmer horse was when winning the Northumberland Vase at this meeting last year off his rating of 84, he has since been raised 11lbs but has been running in some deep contests and running well at that. He was 3rd in a decent Handicap at York last season, before going on to run very well to finish 4th in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket, in his last run of the season. Zoffee then put in arguably a career best in the Chester Cup, just getting beat heading to the line by Metier by a neck, staying on well down the Chester straight which isn’t an easy thing to accomplish. His run last time out in the Ascot Stakes was better than the finishing place suggested, as he was only beaten by just over 3 lengths, always staying on well to the line. He is a thorough stayer, and this Newcastle straight will more than suit, a venue that he won at previously. The draw however isn’t ideal, but I feel he is more than capable in winning a contest like this, as his most recent runs have suggested this.
Golden Rules
(Deborah Faulkner/Oisin Murphy)
A horse with a bit more of an interesting profile heading into this race, he was once trained by John Gosden and has a pretty interesting pedigree behind him being out of Golden Horn. He wasn’t seen on the racetrack for 638 days before his stable debut for Deborah, where he waltzed in a pretty easy winner in a Class 3 contest over 2 miles at Kempton, making all to pull further clear down the home straight. Considering that was his first run in almost two years, it was a pretty decent display, and being off for almost 100 more days (Win at Kempton was in March) that could very much play to his strengths as it gets rid of the bounce factor. He has a nice draw of 10, which fits the trend of anything lower than 14 is the place to be and given his win last time out I think he will run a huge race with only a 3lb raise for what looked like a fairly dominant display from the front. With all-weather form in his Novice days, there should be nothing wrong with running at Newcastle. The yard could have a nice one on their hands and over this sort of trip, more could come from this son of Golden Horn, with the 3x Champion Jockey Oisin Murphy booked to ride once again.
Outsiders To Watch
Rajinsky
(Hugo Palmer/Connor Planas)
It would be silly to miss out the top-weight and arguably the horse with the best form in behind him. Hugo Palmers star stayer was a very taking winner of the Listed Further Flight Stakes at Nottingham on seasonal re-appearance, where he out battled Trueshan all the way to the line. He has since gone on to run some decent races in fairly decent contests, a 6th in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes and a 5th in the Chester Cup, only beaten by a length and a quarter. That seasonal debut run was very good, and he has missed a few other engagements to head for this, which could speak for something. Connor Planas is another young jockey doing very well at present, and this could be his best chance at big race success so early on in his promising career. My motto is if in doubt when it comes to these big handicaps, go for the top weight, as they usually are the best horses in the contest, and providing all goes well in running, they always run well. Rajinsky is well drawn in 4, and his rating of 107 might shine through as he looks to win this.
Rainbow Dreamer
(Alan King/Rossa Ryan)
A trainer that knows how to win races of this nature, as he trained Trueshan to an excellent weight carrying victory in this contest last season, his horse Rainbow Dreamer is a bit of a stalwart when it comes to these staying handicaps on the all-weather. He is a 10yo now but holds the record of 9 wins and 4 seconds on the all-weather surface and has been at a peak rating of 111 in the past, 11lb’s below his best currently but obviously still loving life in racing as shown when winning last time out. He won the all-weather marathon finals at Newcastle last time, putting the older legs to good use beating some up-and-coming staying handicappers, with the 2nd place finisher a length behind. Alan King’s charge gets a 3lb raise from the last performance, but he is clearly thriving at present again and when he is on a run, he tends to keep it up. Draw very much in his favour in 8, and Rossa Ryan fresh off his fabulous Royal Ascot is booked to ride. I think Rainbow Dreamer could be a huge price for this contest.
Verdict:
A very difficult renewal of this contest, which isn’t an irregularity for it, with the draw playing a huge factor in who usually wins this and who has won it in previous years. I have two final picks in this, GOLDEN RULES is a fascinating runner and is arguably bred to be a better horse than this, but his niche looks to be the staying division. His performance last time out on stable debut was very eye catching, after such a long layoff off 600 plus days, he is drawn nicely with Oisin Murphy booked, he gets my vote of confidence for Deborah Faulkner. With the old boy RAINBOW DREAMER in behind him, I just feel he has a little more to give in these sorts of staying contests on the all-weather, and if you want a horse who always runs well on this surface it is Alan Kings charge. He was a nice winner last time out at Newcastle and that shown he is still loving his racing. Alan King has won this twice with Who Dares Wins and Trueshan, I can see him outrunning his huge odds.
Golden Rules (7/1 generally)
Rainbow Dreamer (22/1 generally)
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