The Nunthorpe Stakes is the feature race on day three of York’s Ebor Meeting, where last year’s winner Highfield Princess will bid to follow up again this year. It’s a race that has a history of back-to-back winners, with Mecca’s Angel (2015 + 2016) and Battaash (2019 + 2020) both doing so recently.
John Quinn’s stable star romped to victory in the race 12 months ago and she’s a warm favourite to do so again this year. However, she’ll face a tough challenge from the likes of King’s Stand Stakes winner Bradsell and Molecomb Stakes winner Big Evs.
GG editor Jake Russell previews the race, looking at the key trends for the racing before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he’s backing to come out on top.
Last year’s renewal went the way of John Quinn’s star sprinter HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, who made it ran out a comfortable winner and will bid to retain here crown again this year:
Key Trends
- 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older.
- 3 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 8 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Nunthorpe Stakes, 11 of the last 12 winners had their last run within the last 48 days.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at York, 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at York.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 previous runs over 5 furlongs, 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over 5 furlongs.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 12 previous flat runs, 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous flat wins.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 108 or higher (Jwala being the exception in the 2013 running of this race)
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race.
Key Runners Guide
13. Highfield Princess
(John Quinn/Jason Hart)
What else is there to say that hasn’t already been said for the John Quinn star mare. She was once rated 57 on the flat for John Quinn, she has since shot up the ranks winning all the best sprinting races around the country, including the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest, last years Nunthorpe and the Group 1 Dubai Flying Five Stakes at The Curragh to end her illustrious UK campaign last year, before heading off to the Breeders Cup to come 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Now her excursions earned her the peak rating of 120, one of the best sprinter ratings around, and although she has dropped down a few ratings this season, she has been running well at the highest Grade’s again. Coming 2nd on her seasonal return, which was a pipe opener for the two Sprint Group 1’s at Royal Ascot. Where she came 2nd in the King Stand, only beaten a length by an improving sort who she gave weight to, also finishing a further 3 lengths clear of the 3rd place horse, before going on to run again just a few days later in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, again not beaten far by just a length and a half. I would imagine the Nunthorpe has been the main goal for this season, and judging by her Qatar King George performance last time out where she blitzed the field by 3 lengths, she will take a whole lot of beating, and she does get a little bit of weight for the mares allowance off the older runners. She is Yorkshire’s racing star, and it would be brilliant to see her getting her head back in front in a Group 1 contest.
10. Bradsell
(Archie Watson/Hollie Doyle)
A horse that promised a fair bit last season after winning the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at the Royal Meeting last season, things didn’t particularly go to plan when picking up a few little niggling injuries at the back end of the season. He was then pitched at the 6 furlong trip to start his 3yo season, looking like a potential Commonwealth Cup horse, however connections decided to take on the older sprinters when running in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal meeting this year. He was an awesome winner that day, when beating Highfield Princess by a length, putting in by far a career best to win that race, getting 3lbs that day on the John Quinn trained horse. Bradsell has to give her a lb in the weights for this contest, but he is rated 2lb’s higher than her in the BHA ratings, so that could be justified. Archie Watson’s horses seem to be going well at present, and his 2x Royal Ascot winner could land this and prove a real top sprinting prospect for the seasons ahead. He is a very interesting one, running at this sort of trip for just the second time in his short career.
19. Big Evs
(Michael Appleby/Andrea Atzeni)
One of the most likeable horses of the season so far, a fantastic back story where connections named him after a friend who unfortunately passed away, the Mick Appleby trained horse has really come on leaps and bounds with each race he has contested in. He was a half a length 2nd on debut at Redcar, before going on to blitz the field to win the Windsor Castle at the Royal meeting in June, where he beat his rivals by 3 lengths. That was an awesome performance and considering that was just his 2nd ever career run, it made it even more special, and he backed that up with a battling performance to land the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. He had to battle hard that day in the mud, but he shown so much heart to win by a neck, and from that moment connections always had their eyes on the Nunthorpe, and having paid the £40,000 supplement fee, they will go here with a great chance. He does get an almighty chunk of weight from his main market rivals, which will very much play into his strengths heading into this, as well as his versatility with regards to the ground conditions. The one thing that really doesn’t play to his strengths is the 2yo runners don’t do so well in this contest, with just five winning this race in the past, the last one being Kingsgate Native back in 2007. It would be an awesome story should he win this for his adoring connections, and even more so for his trainer Mick Appleby who is a stalwart of the training ranks.
17. Dramatised
(Karl Burke/Daniel Tudhope)
Karl Burke thinks a lot of this horse, and has stated in previous interviews that she is still getting better with each run. She was the Queen Mary winner last season, she wasn’t seen much after that but did run an almighty race to claim 2nd spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November, not beaten by to far at all. She kick started her 3yo season with a nice performance to win the Betfred Temple Stakes at Haydock before going on to slightly disappoint in the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, which was the last time she was seen on the track. She does have that 60+ break to contend with here, against so real race fit rivals, but I feel there is a little bit more to come from the daughter of Showcasing, and she shown enough last season to be a real force these sprinting trips. She has a little bit to do on the ratings, but gets a nice chunk of weight on the rest of the more experienced rivals, plus the forecasted rattling fast ground will more then suit her, as her trainer has stated she doesn’t want any juice in the ground whatsoever when running. She will have to improve a fair bit, but the yard and jockey do well at York with their runners and rides.
10. Regional
(Edward Bethel/Callum Rodriguez)
A real interesting runner who has looked to be a completely different horse this season, Ed Bethell’s horse was running in handicaps last season, but he has been firing on all cylinders this season and does look a different prospect for a young up and coming trainer. He put in by far a career best performance last time out when backing up his seasonal re-appearance win by contesting in the Listed Sky Bet Achilles Stakes at Haydock, with Equilateral 2 lengths in behind that day, who has since won a very competitive handicap to open the card at York this week. Very much like Dramatised, he has to step up markedly in class to land a contest of this nature, but he has clearly been held back for this race, clearly connections think this is the big race for him, which could be a good sign, but the slight concern is the 70+ day break he has to adjure here, but that could also play in has favour being the fresher horse. As mentioned he is quite interesting, for a trainer to keep a real eye on going forward, and connections do like this horse over the sprint trips.
Outsiders To Look Out For
2. Khaadem
(Charlie Hills/Jamie Spencer)
It would be very silly of us to write off Khaadem for Charlie Hills and Jamie Spencer, who was a shock outsider 80/1 winner of the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at the Royal Meeting in June, he could only finish 5th in the July Cup last time out but that was on ground that would be classed as unsuitable for him. Charlie Hills does very well with his sprinters at this track, as Battaash blitzed most of his rivals when running here the yard. Jamie Spencer gets on very well with this horse, and given the fact he won at a huge price in a feature contest at the Royal meeting, it would be silly to write him off completely for a yard who do so well with their sprinting types.
3. Live In The Dream
(Adam West/Sean Kirrane)
A horse that I feel is very much under the radar heading into this contest, and that may be due to not being trained by a “fashionable” trainer or owner a like. Adam West has worked wonders with this horse, I just love the way this horse runs, shooting out the stalls like a bullet out of the gun before blitzing the turf. Sometimes that can leave a horse a little vulnerable when running, but he does seem to hold it up well during the race and given the Nunthorpe will most likely be ran on rattling firm conditions, this could very much play into the strengths of this horse. Now I don’t expect Live In The Dream to win this, but he isn’t that far off most of these in ratings, and he could be the one to really go forward and run some of these out of the contest. He has some excellent previous form, winning some very nice competitive handicap sprints last season, coming 2nd in the Group 3 Howden Palace House Stakes to start the season and then a very good 3rd in the Group 2 Temple Stakes, before heading to France to come 4th in a Listed contest, at Deauville only beaten by a length. Now sometimes he can idle late on, but I feel should he go a break neck pace he could really put some of these under the cosh, and as previously mentioned I don’t expect him to win this, but he could go well given his run style might suit York.
Verdict
Again, it’s a boring final verdict but I really can’t see past the Yorkshire superstar Highfield Princess, who has been running very well in top sprinting contests without winning, showing she might be a little vulnerable this season, however she shown last time she is still the sprinting queen by winning at Goodwood last time. That was an excellent performance, and she will be more than ready for this, and I fully expect the John Quinn stable star to win this race on back to back occasions, and emulate some of the sprinting greats in Battaash and Mecca’s Angel. Live In The Dream is one that really catches my eye at a decent price, I feel the way he runs will suit York and he has been running well this season. He could run most of these into trouble and claim a very decent place spot.
SELECTION: Highfield Princess – To Win (11/8 Bet365) & Live In The Dream – EW (40/1 Best Price)
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