York’s Ebor Festival continues on Friday with the card headlined by the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. Our trends expert has delved into recent renewals and provided a few pointers to help narrow down the field. Check out the key stats below, alongside an exclusive customer offer from 888sport, who are offering £30 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus, when you sign up and place a £10 bet.
Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes – York (15:35, Friday 19th August)
Last Ten Winners
2021 – Winter Power (Tim Easterby, Silvestre De Sousa) 9/1
2020– Battaash (Charles Hills, Jim Crowley) 1/2F
2019– Battaash (Charles Hills, Jim Crowley) 7/4
2018 – Alpha Delfini (Bryan Smart, Graham Lee) 40/1
2017 – Marsha (Sir Mark Prescott, Luke Morris) 8/1
2016 – Mecca’s Angel (Michael Dods, Paul Mulrennan) 9/2
2015 – Mecca’s Angel (Michael Dods, Paul Mulrennan) 15/2
2014 – Sole Power (Edward Lynam, Richard Hughes) 11/4F
2013 – Jwala (Robert Cowell, Steve Drowne) 40/1
2012 – Ortensia (Paul Messara, William Buick) 7/2J
Key Trends
Rating – Officially Rated 108 or Higher (9/10)
The Nunthorpe Stakes doesn’t necessarily go to a horse with an exceptionally high rating. Nine of the last ten renewals of the contest went to horses officially rated 108 or higher, whilst the exception, Jwala, was rated 103. Seven of this year’s field are officially rated below 108.
Age – Aged 4yo or Older (9/10)
Experience has been the way to go in recent renewals of the Nunthorpe, with nine of the last ten winners aged 4yo or older. Last year’s winner Winter Power was younger than a typical winner being a 3yo. Seven of this year’s field are aged 3yo or younger.
Distance – Winner Over 5f (10/10)
Winning form at the Nunthorpe trip has proven a good guide to unearthing winners of the race. All of the last ten Nunthorpe winners had won over 5f previously. Two of this year’s field are yet to win over 5f.
Class – Had Won at Listed Level or Higher (10/10)
Whilst Group 1 form wouldn’t be imperative for the Nunthorpe, recent winners have at least shown themselves to be capable at pattern level, with all of the last ten winners of the race managing to score at Listed level or higher previously. Six of this year’s field are yet to win at Listed level or above.
Betting – Single-Figure Price (8/10)
There have admittedly been two 40/1 winners of the Nunthorpe in recent years, but aside from that, this is a race where punters have done ok, with eight of the last ten winners going off at a single-figure price. With this being a more open renewal than recent renewals, this could be a trend broken.
Form – Top 3 Finish LTO (9/10)
Backing out of form horses wouldn’t be advised in the Nunthorpe. Nine of the last ten winners finished in the top 3 last time out. The exception was shock 2013 winner Jwala, who had excuses for finishing down the field at Goodwood on her start prior.
Trends Verdict
Removing horses officially rated 107 or lower, that hadn’t won at the trip or at Listed level or higher previously narrows this year’s Nunthorpe field from 17 to just 7.
Nine of the last ten winners had finished in the top 3 last time out, and using this trend leaves us with a field of just three; Royal Acclaim, Khaadem and Raasel.
With the favourite being a little younger than a typical winner, the latter pair look the ones to focus on from a trends perspective.
The market should provide a good guide, as eight of the last ten winners were sent off at a single-figure price, and therefore given that he’s just flirting with that already at current odds of 10/1, KHAADEM is favoured here.
Charles Hills’ 6yo comes into this chasing a hat-trick, landing the Palace House at Newmarket before claiming the King George at Glorious Goodwood. He’s now 3-5 since dropping back to the minimum trip and Ryan Moore keeps the partnership intact. The stable knows what it takes to land this having sent Battaash out to land back-to-back renewals, and therefore he rates the one to side with here.
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