The Paddy Power Gold Cup is one of the biggest handicaps of the jumps season, and has been won by some classy horses over the years, including:
- Annacotty (2015)
- Taquin Du Seuil (2016)
- Coole Cody (2020)
- Ga Law (2022)
14 runners have been declared for this year’s renewal, which includes Grade 1 winners Stage Star and The Real Whacker. Will either of those prove their class and make a winning return this season?
GG editor Tom Aldridge previews this years race, before giving his verdict on who he expects to come out on top.
Last year’s renewal saw GA LAW (5/1) stay on best to get the better of French Dynamite (2nd) and Midnight River (3rd), giving Jamie Snowden a first win in the race:
Key Race Trends
- 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 6-8.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 142+.
- Just one of the last 10 winners had won their last race.
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already raced that season at least once.
- 6 of the last 10 winners had previously raced over C&D.
- Just one of the last 10 winners had previously won over C&D.
- Seven of the last 10 winners won at 10/1 or shorter.
- Irish-trained runners don’t have a great record – from 28 runners they have won once and placed 4 times.
Key Runners
STAGE STAR
(Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden)
Favourites don’t have a great record in this, failing to win any of the last ten renewals, but Stage Star does look a class act in here. Paul Nicholls 7YO only lost twice in his novice chasing campaign – once on unsuitably good ground, and last time out when running flat at Aintree when the race probably came a bit soon after his Cheltenham exertions. He was a decisive winner of the Turners Novices’ Chase at the Festival, finishing comfortably clear of Notlongtillmay (2nd) and Unexpected Party (5th), and should be able to confirm that form here. He might not have had a run this season, but he’s 3/3 when making his seasonal reappearance so I don’t think that will be an issue. He’s also 3/3 on soft ground over fences and won on both appearance at Cheltenham last season. He has plenty in his favour and it’s easy to see why he’s set to go off at the top of the betting.
THE REAL WHACKER
(Patrick Neville/Sam Twiston-Davies)
Patrick Neville’s stable star was a perfect 3/3 over fences last season, improving with each run and signing off for the season with a game win in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. That was a huge performance, beating Gerri Colombe by a short head, who has since franked the form by winning his next two Grade 1’s. Two of his three wins came over further than what he will face on Saturday, but he did win over this trip fairly comfortably in the Dipper Novices’ Chase, making all and never having a serious threat. However, he did lose on his debut and was also well beaten on seasonal reappearance last year, and there’s also the fact that the last horse to carry 12st or higher and win this was Dunkirk way back in 1965.
IL RIDOTO
(Paul Nicholls/Freddie Gingell)
Paul Nicholls second string could only finish fourth in this race last year off of a 4lb lower mark, but he does have the services of talented conditional jockey Freddie Gingell this time, whose 5lb claim means he’s effectively 1lb lighter than last year. Il Ridoto only managed to win once last season, in a Premier Handicap on the new course here back in January, where he finished ahead of Fugitif and I expect him to confirm that form again here. However, he’s up against some talented rivals here and I think this is a stronger renewal than last year’s, so I’d give him an outside chance but think he might have to settle for a place at best.
NOTLONGTILLMAY
(Laura Morgan/Adam Wedge)
The shorter priced of the Laura Morgan runners, Notlongtillmay won three of his five races on his debut season over fences, and was only beaten just over three lengths by Stage Star in the Turners Novices’ Chase in March. He’s now 3lb better off with that rival here and arrives here with a fitness edge, having already had a run this season. He wasn’t beaten far on seasonal reappearance over a shorter than ideal trip, so he should be much more effective back at a trip he won at twice last season. My worry for him is Stage Star seemed to have the measure of him at the Festival and I’m not sure a 3lb swing in the weights is enough to reverse that form. However, I do feel the old course will suit Laura Morgan’s runner more than Stage Star, and I think that could prove crucial.
UNEXPECTED PARTY
(Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton)
Eight-year-olds have won two of the last four renewals and the pick of the bunch this year looks to be UNEXPECTED PARTY, who has only failed to finish outside the top three once in seven races over fences. He could only finish fifth in the Turners Novices’ Chase last season behind Stage Star and Notlongtillmay, but he’s 9lb and 6lb better off with those rivals now respectively, and that’s a hefty swing in his favour. He made the perfect start to this season, beating Knappers Hill at Chepstow, who has since boosted the form by winning the “Rising Stars” Novices’ Chase. I think he has a lively chance of reversing form with Stage Star and Notlongtillmay now he’s much better off at the weights, and he looks a serious option to take on the market leader with.
Lively Outsiders
WHISTLEINTHEDARK
(Laura Morgan/Kevin Brogan)
The second of Laura Morgan’s runners declared, Whistleinthedark comes into this unbeaten over fences, with a perfect 4/4 from last season’s novice campaign. This will be by far his toughest assignment to date however, and although he has won his four races over fences by a combined 29 lengths, he hasn’t faced anything like the calibre of horses he will be up against on Saturday. Kevin Brogan has been booked for the ride, which I feel is a strange move, considering he’s never ridden the horse before and doesn’t have the greatest record at Cheltenham. Whistleinthedark clearly thrives over fences though, and you don’t often get such a big price on a horse who went unbeaten over fences last season.
AUTHORIZED ART
(Willie Mullins/Danny Mullins)
Irish-trained runners have a poor record in this, but I do feel Authorized Art is overpriced in this. Although perhaps better on good ground, he wasn’t beaten far by Gerri Colombe on soft/heavy going in the Faugheen Novice Chase last season, and we all know how good he is now! He did well on seasonal reappearance to finish runner-up to Ash Tree Meadow, who has since franked the form by running out an easy winner of a Grade 2 (albeit he only had to beat one rival). It was another solid effort to finish fourth in the Kerry National last time out, on his first try at three miles, and I’ll think he’ll be much more at home back down to this trip. I don’t think he’ll win, but I think he’s capable of running into a place, providing the ground isn’t too big an issue for him.
Big-Race Verdict
Recent trends suggest it pays to avoid the favourite and side with a runner shorter than 10/1 (following this would have given us the winner in seven of the last ten renewals), so with that in mind I’m going to have to take on Stage Star. I do think he is the class horse in the race, I just feel he might not be suited by the sharper old course, and there are some seriously talented rivals that I think will be better suited by the old course. NOTLONGTILLMAY way just over three lengths behind Stage Star back in March and now 3lb better off and with a race fitness advantage, I think he could be the one to take him on with. I do think that the Turners could be a key race to focus on in here, so I also wouldn’t put anyone off of UNEXPECTED PARTY, who has a big swing in the weights with those two rivals and has already put in a superb effort to beat Knappers Hill this season.
SELECTION: NOTLONGTILLMAY (E/W – 7/1 generally) + UNEXPECTED PARTY (E/W – 7/1 generally)
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – 1pm Thursday 16th November*
Check out this weeks Weekend Watch podcast, where Andrew Mount, Dave Young & Kate Tracey guide us through the six ITV races on Saturday, including four of the key races from the Cheltenham card:
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