Europe’s richest horse race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday. In anticipation of what promises to be a vintage renewal of the Arc, Andrew Mount has delved through the field and provided his verdict on the big race. Check this out below, alongside an exclusive William Hill bet £10 get £40 offer.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Preview (Longchamp 3:05pm, Sunday, October 3rd)
ADAYAR overcame the stall 1 hoodoo in the Derby and followed that with an impressive King George victory over Mishriff at Ascot where he had Love three and half lengths back in third. He still gives some cause for concern with the way he starts his races – he was slowly away when beaten on his first two outings this term – but he’s desperately difficult to rule out on the strength of his last two efforts.
The good ground was blamed for TARNAWA’s defeat in the Irish Champion Stakes, though a three-quarters of a length second to St Mark’s Basilica can hardly be described as disappointing. She went into that race on the back of five straight wins, including a pair of Group 1 victories here at Longchamp. Ground conditions don’t seem to matter to her and she’ll be hard to keep out of the first three.
HURRICANE LANE took his career form figures to 1113111 (6-7) when comfortably landing the St Leger from Mojo Star last month. His only defeat came at the hands of Adayar when almost eight lengths behind his stablemate in the Derby. He reportedly lost both of his front shoes that day and might be closer this time.
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SNOWFALL won her first four starts this year by a combined margin of more than 32 lengths though suffered a shock defeat by Teona over the Arc course and distance last time. She’s been supplemented for this but has never raced outside of fillies only company and could prove vulnerable.
CHRONO GENESIS found only Mishriff a neck too good in the Dubai Sheema Classis at Meydan in the spring and has since justified short odds on in Grade 1 company back in her native Japan. Soft ground would be a concern and stall 14 is no help.
RAABIHAH, a general 20-1 shot at the time of writing, is the shortest price of the French runners. She kept on into a 13-1 fifth of 11 behind Sottsass on heavy ground in this race last year but that form doesn’t look strong enough. She has only ever won against her own sex and is tuck out wide in stall 15 of 15.
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ALENQUER beat Adayar by half a length at Sandown in the spring but the runner-up was unlucky and he has been defeated in both Group 1 outings, finishing over seven lengths behind Hurricane Lane when third in the Grand Prix de Paris over trip and track and six lengths behind Mishriff when runner-up in the Juddmonte at York. However, any rain will suit, and he makes some each-way appeal at around the 25-1 mark.
LOVE arrives here o the back of three defeats, albeit she only went down by a short head in Group 2 company at the Curragh last time. She has no answer to Adayar and Mishriff in the King George and makes little appeal against the colts again.
Japanese hope DEEP BOND made all to defeat Broome by a length and half in the Prix Foy on his European debut last month, though the bigger field and prospect of soft ground is a concern.
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SEALIWAY hasn’t been seen since his runner-up effort to St Mark’s Basilica in the Prix du Jockey Club in June, his first attempt beyond a mile. He shapes as though the step up to 1m4f will suit (he was once again described as ‘outpaced’ at Chantilly) and if there’s going to be a shock winner it could be him.
MOJO STAR was left with plenty to do when keeping on into fifth behind Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby and the switch to more prominent tactics were no help when runner-up to his old rival in the St Leger, as Doncaster’s round course massively favours patient tactics. He was in front about three furlongs from home that day and I was impressed with that way he stuck at it. He won’t be inconvenienced if it turns very soft and looks a solid each-way angle.
BABY RIDER was a respectable fifth to Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris where he probably wasn’t helped by taking the inside route. He was only beaten by a nose over course and distance in Group 2 company next time, losing out to Bubble Gift who also raced on the inner when sixth in the Grand prix de Paris. He might be able to outrun his 100-1 odds and finish in the first six.
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BROOME was allowed to dominate when landing the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud but his six other runs over this 1m4f trip have resulted in defeat. His six runs over trips of about 1m2f have yielded five wins and a short head second. He’s a big price but makes little appeal.
BUBBLE GIFT’s form ties in closely with that of Baby Rider and is another who could outrun huge odds.
TORQUATOR TASSO landed the Grade 1 Grosser Preis von Baden on his latest start, but this looks a different kettle of fish entirely and he’s passed over.
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Conclusion: this is an absolute belter and while those at the head of the betting holds obvious claims there’s plenty of value to be had among the outsiders. Raceform’s speed figures have these in a heap, with nine of the 15 runners rated between 118 and 122. The three I like at the prices are Alenquer, Sealiway and MOJO STAR, with preference for the last named. He’s twice seen the back end of Hurricane Lane this year, but the tactics adopted put him at a disadvantage on each occasion.
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