If the Melbourne Cup is the race to stop a nation, the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the race that stops the racing universe. Coveted the world over and universally seen as the biggest test for a flat middle-distance thoroughbred, the race has produced some classics in recent years, breaking Japanese hearts in their quest to land the race for the first time with Orfevre and Deep Impact, Frankie’s heroic ride on Golden Horn, Found leading home a Ballydoyle 1-2-3 for Aidan O’Brien, Enable doubling up before an agonising loss on her final start & most recently an emotional success for Luke Morris & Sir Mark Prescott with Alpinista.
GG editor Dan Corbally previews this year’s race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the key runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to land Sunday’s Group 1.
Last year’s renewal saw Alpinista stay on strongly to fend off the late challenges of Vadeni and Torquator Tasso to give Sir Mark Prescott his first win in the race:
Key Trends
- 4 of the last 12 winners were aged 3, 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or 5
- 8 of the last 12 winners came from stall 8 or below (7 out of 10 winners at Longchamp)
- 8 of the last 12 winners were fillies or mares
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 previous career runs
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 12 furlongs
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 12 furlongs
(2016 & 2017 renewals ran at Chantilly)
Runner-By-Runner Guide
ACE IMPACT
(Jean-Claude Rouget)
Unbeaten and highly exciting colt, took his career to five wins from as many runs in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano when reportedly 80-85% fit. Prior to that somewhat cosy success he took the French Derby in devastating fashion, streaking away from the pace-setting Big Rock. This step up in trip does represent a question mark, while three of his half-siblings having won over 1m2f none have won over 1m4f, however one did manage to score over 1m3f. He’s by Cracksman, who was a potent force on soft ground, so any rain that comes shouldn’t pose a threat. Undoubtedly high-class and his master trainer took this race with Sottsass in 2020.
HUKUM
(Owen Burrows)
Lightly raced this year, but has achieved a very high level of form, taking the Brigadier Gerard Stakes (over what looked an insufficient 10 furlongs) from Desert Crown before landing the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, beating Westover. A testament to the training and patience of connections, as he was retired after an injury before making a full recovery and re-entering training after surgery on a hind leg which required three screws. The distance poses no fears, having won over trips up to 1m6f and he seems versatile in terms of ground, having won on soft going but has done most of his recent on good ground in the last two years. Operating at a very high level and looks at the peak of his powers.
WESTOVER
(Ralph Beckett)
Has always been held in very high-regard and really seems to be bringing it all together this season. Dotted up in a sub-par renewal of the Irish Derby last year before suffering a reputation damaging defeat in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth, went some way to redeem himself when sixth in last year’s renewal of this race. Looking more the finished article this year, he was picked off in the Coronation Cup on seasonal debut before lowering the track record in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and losing by a head to Hukum in this year’s King George VI & Queen Elizabeth. Looks to have a better chance to last year but just needs to find a little more.
CONTINUOUS
(Aidan O’Brien)
Japan may not be able to say they’ve won this race but this colt could give the national a small sense of victory, being by Heart’s Cry. St. Leger winners don’t have an amazing record in this race but Continuous has been brought on immensely well by Aidan O’Brien, improving with each run and stepping forward from a second place finish in the King Edward VII Stakes to land the Great Voltigeur Stales and most recently the St Leger in fine style. Another who seems versatile over track and going, having won at this trip and further on ground varying from good to firm to very soft going. This is his third run in the space of six weeks, if that doesn’t take too much out of him he looks a key player. His run style can make him somewhat luck dependant, having been held up the last twice, he’ll need the gaps to appear but he’ll need no second invitation if they do. Needs supplementing on Wednesday at a cost of €120,000.
FEED THE FLAME
(Pascal Bary)
Another exciting colt who has a run-style that could find itself victim to luck in the run, coming with a distinctive late run with a fast final two furlongs has become his trademark. Came up short in the French Derby not finding that rattling two furlongs required to close the gap, finishing fourth, afterwards he stepped up to 1m4f to win the Grand Prix de Paris from Adelaide River before coming up short behind German challenger Fantastic Moon (not entered here – would require supplementation on Wednesday and it’s unclear whether connections plan on entering). Certainly worthy of his chance at this level but may find a couple too hard to reel in if the race doesn’t fall apart.
BIG ROCK
(Christopher Head)
Has found incredible improvement since switched to this yard – graduating from a handicap success to consecutive Group 3 wins to three runner-up placings at Group 1 level including the French Derby behind Ace Impact. Invariably goes off at a fair clip and leads, hard to know if connections will persist with those tactics over today’s longer trip. Difficult to say with any great confidence this step up in trip is what’s needed to get him off the mark at the top level. In a similar vein to his compatriot Feed The Flame, he could find a few with superior stamina reserves overtaking and getting away when his petrol gauge begins to flash.
BAY BRIDGE
(Sir Michael Stoute)
Really found his feet last year, improving into a genuine Group 1 horse, culminating in a QIPCO Champion Stakes success at Ascot. Has been running well this season and got on the score sheet when landing the September Stakes over this trip at Kempton. Seemed fine on the step up in trip last time but this company is a different story, looked OK on very soft going on seasonal debut. Not without his chance but may need some of these to falter to play a hand.
THROUGH SEVEN SEAS
(Tomohito Ozeki)
Another sharp improver, this time from Japan improving from a Grade 3 fillies and mares handicap to a Grade 1, finishing within a neck of the very smart Equinox in the Takarazuka Kinen. That horse took the measure of Westover by 3.5 lengths with Mostahdaf 7 lengths back in the Sheema Classic. If that Takarazuka Kinen form can be taken literally and replicated, she’d have a huge chance of outrunning her massive odds here, though Japan have had and probably will have better chances of winning. Soft ground is a question mark but she has winning form on a yielding.
Big-Race Verdict
CONTINUOUS carries the flame for Ballydoyle and could prove the value to land this typically competitive contest, if his St Leger exerts haven’t left him depleted. A lot will rest on the draw and finding a good position to track into the race will be imperative before striking for home with Ryan Moore. French Derby winner Ace Impact is afforded plenty of respect and he had the selection in arrears with they met, but he has to prove this type of test is to his liking. Hukum is clearly the best he’s ever been and he arrives fresh from his heroic King George VI & Elizabeth success, he’s proven capable of posting big performances off similar breaks and has to be included and respected in any predictions. Feed The Flame could be igniting late with a clear run, should they do too much on front and the race fall apart he’ll pick up the pieces with glee.
SELECTION: Continuous (7/1 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 4.00pm Monday 25th September*
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.