Royal Ascot 2022 begins on Tuesday with the Queen Anne Stakes, a Group 1 contest over Ascot’s straight mile which is open to horses aged 4yo and older. Baaeed is the star attraction for this year’s race, but who comes out best on the trends? Find out here, and why not also check out Sky Bet‘s new customer offer of £30 In Free Bets when you place any bet.
QUEEN ANNE STAKES (Ascot, 2:30pm, Tuesday June 14th)
Last Ten Winners
2021 – Palace Pier (John & Thady Gosden, Frankie Dettori) 2/7F
2020 – Circus Maximus (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 4/1F
2019 – Lord Glitters (David O’Meara, Daniel Tudhope) 14/1
2018 – Accidental Agent (Eve Johnson Houghton, Charles Bishop) 33/1
2017 – Ribchester (Richard Fahey, William Buick) 11/10F
2016 – Tepin (Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux) 11/2
2015 – Solow (Freddy Head, Maxime Guyon) 11/8F
2014 – Toronado (Richard Hannon, Richard Hughes) 4/5F
2013 – Declaration Of War (Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien) 15/2
2012 – Frankel (Sir Henry Cecil, Tom Queally) 1/10F
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Key Trends
Form: Winner Last Time Out (5/10) Fourth Or Worse Last Time Out 5/10
No strong trends can be drawn towards how horses fared last time out. Half of the last ten winners had won on their start prior, but interestingly, the other half had finished fourth or worse, with 2019 winner Lord Glitters finishing 13th on his run prior! Therefore, horses that finished 2nd or 3rd last time should generally be avoided, a negative for recent Lockinge runner-up Real World.
Rating: Officially Rated 116 Or Higher (8/10) Top Official Rating 5/10
Eight of the last ten winners of the Queen Anne Stakes held an official rating of 116 or greater prior to their victories, the exceptions being Declaration Of War (112) and Accidental Agent (109). Half of the last ten winners were officially the top-rated horse in the lineup when landing the race. The 113-rated Chindit has this trend to buck.
Experience: Had Between 7 – 14 Previous Runs (8/10) Average 12 Runs Last Ten Years
Eight of the last ten Queen Anne Stakes winners had at least seven runs to their name prior and had not raced more than 14 times. The exceptions Tepin (19 runs) and Lord Glitters (21) had both raced more than 14 times. Aidan O’Brien’s Order Of Australia has raced 15 times previously so falls short of this trend.
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Class: Previous Group Winner (9/10) Previous Group 1 Winner 7/10
All but shock 2018 winner Accidental Agent had won at least one Group race prior to landing the Queen Anne. Seven of the last ten winners had previously scored at the top level. William Haggas’s Aldaary is yet to win above Listed level.
Age: Aged 4yo (7/10) No Older Than 5yo (9/10)
Seven of the last ten winners of the Queen Anne were a 4yo, nine of the last ten winners of the race were either a 4yo or a 5yo – the exception is 6yo Lord Glitters. This trend is a negative for the 6yos Happy Power and Sir Busker.
Headgear: Wore Headgear (2/10) Horses That Wore Headgear Are 2-34 In Last Ten Renewals
No strong trend in regard to headgear with Tepin (tongue-tie) and Circus Maximus (blinkers) wearing headgear to victory in the last ten years. Horses that wore headgear are 2-34 so don’t have a particularly strong record, albeit a large proportion of these were outsiders.
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Trends Outcome
It is very difficult to get away from the claims of BAAEED, who although a little light on experience compared to an average Queen Anne winner, has had the requisite seven runs – failing to taste defeat in any of them.
Winner of the QE2 here on British Champions Day, when accounting for last year’s Queen Anne winner Palace Pier, he is the highest-rated in this lineup and prepped with a run in the Lockinge, which has proven the go-to route in recent years.
The only horse to come close to Baaeed on the trends is Master Of The Seas, who is 117-rated and prepped for this with victory in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes. Charlie Appleby’s gelding is yet to win at the top level (which seven of the previous ten Queen Anne winners had done), but he was beaten just a shorthead in the 2000 Guineas last year. It’s a slight concern that his only previous run here produced a laboured seventh (behind Baaeed), but given that he ticks plenty of boxes he could provide the value in the betting without the favourite market.
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