The Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is one of the key races on British Champions Day at Ascot this weekend. There’s been some big names to have won the race in recent years, including the likes of Frankel, Roaring Lion and Baaeed, and nine horses will bid to add their name to the illustrious list of winners on Saturday.
Three-year-olds get a 3lb allowance and have an excellent recent record in the race, which bodes well for the chances of the market leaders Inspiral and Modern Games.
Our editor has identified some of the key trends to follow and provided a runner-by-runner guide below, including our big-race verdict.
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Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Newmarket (1m, 3.20pm Saturday 15th October)
Key Race Trends
- Six of the last ten winners were 3YO’s, including three of the last four.
- Just one winning favourite in the past five years.
- Only one horse in the past ten years won at double-figure odds.
- 9 of the last 12 winners won their previous race.
- 9 of the last 12 winners rated 119+.
- Colts have won 6 of the last 10 renewals.
- The Revenant won the race in 2020, only two horses have won this more than once – Brigadier Gerard (1971, 1972) and Rose Bowl (1975, 1976).
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Inspiral
Frankel filly who has only tasted defeat once in her career. Has won six races, including three Group 1 victories. Won convincingly on her only previous race at Ascot, in the Coronation Stakes, and if returning in the same form should take the world of beating. Fits the trends for age, rating and winning her previous race. Only negatives to her chances appear to be the poor recent record of fillies’ in the race (although John Gosden was the last trainer to have a winning filly in the race in 2017 with Persuasive) and the fact there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the last four renewals, but she is more than capable of bucking both those trends and she rates the one to beat.
Modern Games
Charlie Appleby’s colt signed off his 2YO season with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and returned this year with a win in the French 2,000 Guineas. He then failed to justify favouritism when losing his next two, before a return to form in the Sussex Stakes, where he only found the monstrous Baaeed too good. Has since travelled over to Canada to win the Woodbine Mile in impressive fashion and looks to be the one best equipped to take Inspiral on. Seems to fit all the key trends so wouldn’t be a shock if he were to beat the odds-on favourite.
The Revenant
Won the race in 2020 before finishing fourth in last year’s renewal. Has done most of his racing since back in France and has disappointed in his last two races. One key thing to note regarding his chances is the fact that no horse aged six or older has even won the race, which doesn’t bode well for him. Also doesn’t fit the trends for winning his last race or his rating, so is up against it and may find a few too good again this year.
Jadoomi
Connections have paid the £70,000 supplementary fee to get him into the race so must fancy his chances.He started off his career well as a 2YO, before missing most of 2021, only managing one race as a 3YO. This year however, he has had three races, winning all three, including two Group 2’s. His last race in the Boomerang Mile was impressive, winning comfortably and if he turns up in the same mood he could spring a minor shock to the market leaders.
Tempus
This will be his first effort in Group 1 company and it may prove too much for him. Has won four races this year, but this will be his toughest test by some stretch. Has the same issue as The Revenant for age, and also fails to hit the trends of winning his last race or having a rating of 119+. Looks up against it and it would be a shock if he were to win.
Bayside Boy
Has failed to hit the form of his debut season, when winning the Champagne Stakes and placing in the Dewhurst and the Vertem Futurity Trophy. Has been comfortably beaten in his first three races of this year, before hinting at a return to form when winning the Fortune Stakes last time, but this is a big jump up in class and he doesn’t appear to have the quality to challenge those at the head of the betting. Does fit the age and winning last race trends, but has something to find on ratings and only one horse in the last ten years has won at double-figure odds.
Checkandchallenge
His form of just one win from his four races this year suggests he may struggle in this company. Did win a Group 3 in Deauville, but was then well beaten when upped to Group 2 company at Longchamp. The only trend in his favour is his age, so a placed finish could be the best he can hope for here, but even that looks doubtful.
El Drama
Another who looks up against it in this line up. Has only had one race this year, when second in the Joel Stakes behind Mutasaabeq. Was ahead of Tempus that day, but we expect that form to reverse here. Fails to tick any of the key trends for the race and is more than likely to finish well back in the field.
Raadobarg
Outsider of the field, having lost his last races and finished behind a few of these in his last two. No reason to see him reversing that form in here and he fails to meet any of the key trends for winning this race. It would be a serious upset if he was to beat the likes of Inspiral and Modern Games.
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Verdict
Inspiral has been nothing short of a superstar in her career so far and has only ever been beat by one horse in her seven races. That defeat was a below par performance and she resumed winning ways at Deauville last time out – if she’s in the same form again here she should take some stopping. Her biggest rival could come in the form of Modern Games, who fits the key trends for the race and bolted up in the Woodbine Mile last time out. It would be a shock if these two weren’t the 1-2 on Saturday, and they’re priced accordingly to do so. Third place may go to the supplemented Jadoomi, who has impressed in all three races this year, but this will be his toughest assignment to date and he may find both Inspiral and Modern Games too good on Saturday.
- Inspiral
- Modern Games
- Jadoomi
Check out this week’s Weekend Watch, where our team of tipsters talk us through their selections for Champions Day at Ascot: