Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting really starts in earnest with the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at 2pm. It is the only top level race on the opening day in Ireland, and no guesses are needed as to the dominant trainer in recent times. Willie Mullins has won the last three renewals, while the likes of Sizing Europe, Douvan and Min have all claimed the race in the past.
Just four go to post, with Joe Napier analysing the field containing one of the most talked about horses in training.
Saint Roi won his only Grade 1 when overcoming 25/1 outsider Visionarian in 2022.
Key Race Trends
- Only four favourites have won in the last ten years and all were odds-on
- Willie Mullins has trained six of the last eight winners
- Six of the last ten winners had run just once over fences
- Eight of the last ten winners were aged either 5 or 6
- Only two of the last ten winners had previously won a Grade 1
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Facile Vega
The chosen one he may not be, but the Walk In The Park-Quevega match has still produced a proper horse. In a way, it makes him all the more endearing that this robotic form of breeding did not produce a complete animatron, but rather an equine star with his foibles. Unbeaten in bumpers, he won three of his five hurdles starts, including the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at this meeting a year ago.
He then blew out entirely at the Dublin Racing Festival, with the fierce, albeit not unmaintainable, pace being put forward as an excuse. If you are of the forgiving persuasion, his only true defeat came when second to Marine Nationale at the Cheltenham Festival, and he already looks an extremely promising chaser. His Navan chase debut form has already been franked by the fourth and he will be an imposing rival for any other novices this season.
Found A Fifty
He wasn’t in the same league as Facile Vega over hurdles, as evidenced by his 24-legth defeat to that rival at Punchestown. That was his second heavy defeat at Grade 1 level, although he is readily making strides to be a far better chaser.
He made light work of his opposition at Down Royal on his debut. With the third winning at Cheltenham since, that form now looks particularly strong. He could not quite back that up though, finding Irish National winner I Am Maximus too strong in the closing stages. The step back to 2m1f could be a positive in soft enough conditions, but overcoming the favourite is a tall order.
My Mate Mozzie
Gavin Cromwell’s seven-year-old was a short head away from a Grade 1 success as a novice hurdler two years ago. Remarkably, he had to wait until this October for a subsequent victory, although it was taken in some style at Cheltenham.
The novice chase he won at HQ now looks extremely weak, so although he won it hard on the bridle, it is difficult to look too welcomingly on that result. He was also beaten at odds-on in an ordinary enough beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse prior, so his win last time really will have to be symbolic of huge improvement.
Sharjah
Willie Mullins has had success with veteran novice chasers in recent years. However, for all his likeability, Sharjah is no Faugheen, in spite of his surprisingly bountiful Grade 1 haul in the past.
He won in tremendous fashion on his first two chase starts, including a Grade 3 at Tipperary. The bubble burst when, under a patient ride, he emptied quickly in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse at the start of the month, though he step back in trip should be a positive and his record at this track over hurdles was fantastic, particularly at this time of year.
Big-Race Verdict
As long as he performs to his ability, FACILE VEGA will make it two from two over fences as he looks to confirm himself the top 2m novice chaser in Ireland before the New Year. His chase debut form has been franked, and all of his rivals have been defeated by inferior horses to himself. Sharjah might be worth taking for the forecast, as he recorded four successive triumphs in the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting over hurdles, and he could well prove better back in trip. Found A Fifty is more likely than My Mate Mozzie to split the Mullins duo.
- Facile Vega
- Sharjah
- Found A Fifty
SELECTION: 1st FACILE VEGA 2nd SHARJAH 1pt Forecast
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – pm Thursday 21st December*
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