Eight runners are set to go to post for the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes on Friday, with Ollie Sangster’s unbeaten filly Shuwari currently heading the betting. There are plenty of talented rivals willing to take her on though, including Prestige Fillies’ Stakes runner-up Carla’s Way and Aidan O’Brien’s Ylang Ylang, who disappointed last time out but is more than capable of winning this if returning to her previous form.
GG editor Tom Aldridge previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through all eight runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to land this year’s Rockfel Stakes.
Last year’s renewal saw John & Thady Gosden’s COMMISSIONING make it 2/2 in her career with a comfortably victory under a fine Rab Havlin ride. The talented filly would follow up just two weeks later in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile. Watch her effort in this race last year below:
Key Trends
- Eight of the last ten winners finished in the top two in their last race (five had won last time out)
- Three of the last five winners had previously won at Group level.
- John Gosden has won two of the last six renewals, including last year with Commissioning.
- Only two of the last 10 winners came into the race unbeaten (Al Thakira in 2013 + Commissioning in 2022).
- There has only been two winning favourites in the last ten renewals.
- Frankie Dettori is the joint-leading jockey in the race, with four wins.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. ALSHINFARAH
(Kevin Philippart de Foy/Jim Crowley)
She’s unfortunate not be coming into this unbeaten, having lost out by half a length in a Group 3 in France last time out. That was over a mile and on softer ground than she had encountered previously, so the drop back in trip and return to better ground could give her a lively chance here. She will need to improve again to be in the mix, but I do think she’s a better option than some of these in here.
2. CARLA’S WAY
(Simon & Ed Crisford/James Doyle)
Just the one win to her name (which came on debut), but it was a much better performance last time out, when chasing home Darnation in the Prestige Fillies’ Stakes last month. The winner Darnation has since franked the form by winning the Group 2 May Hill Stakes next time out, so that looks a good bit of form in the context of this race. However, I do feel she will need to improve further to get close to the market leader.
3. CAROLINA REAPER
(Charlie Johnston/Jack Mitchell)
The Charlie Johnston runner has some good bits of recent form to her name, none more so than when winning a Group 3 in Germany last time out. She also has a C&D win to her name, having run out an easy winner here back in July, although that was on the July course. The biggest issue with her is she has plenty to find on collateral form with Shuwari on the basis she was beaten seven lengths by Fallen Angel, who in turn was 1/2 a length behind Shuwari previously. It’s difficult to see her improving by that much to be a threat to the market leader, but she’s capable on her day and I can see her beating a few of these home.
4. MARCELLA
(Andrew Balding/William Buick)
The outsider of the field, and she doesn’t look to have much chance in this. Having been soundly beaten in two of her three races to date, she would need to improve considerably to be in the mix, and that doesn’t seem likely. Granted, her sole win did come on her only attempt over this trip, but that was also on soft ground and she’s been comfortably beaten in her two races on better going. I think she might find this too much and in truth I don’t see her beating any of these.
5. SHUWARI
(Ollie Sangster/Oisin Murphy)
Comes into the race with a perfect 2/2 record, and the form of her wins looks rock solid too. Her win over Fallen Angel in the Star Stakes back in July has received a huge boost, with the runner-up Fallen Angel winning her next two, including the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. That piece of form makes her the one to beat here, and I think she could prove far too good for the opposition.
6. SPIRITUAL
(John & Thady Gosden/Kieran Shoemark)
Made an impressive start to her career when winning comfortably at Leicester earlier this month, despite pulling hard in the early stages and running green in the closing stages. Has to come into consideration considering her trainers excellent recent record in the race, and it’s worth noting that they won it last year with Commissioning who was also making just her second start.
7. YLANG YLANG
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
Having won her first two races, including the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes, she was disappointing when finishing last in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last time out. Something clearly wasn’t right with her that day, considering she had comfortably beaten Vespertilio previously, and she may well have just needed the run after over six weeks off. It depends what mood she turns up in here, but if she’s back to her best she could rate the biggest danger to Shuwari.
8. ZENJABEELA
(Roger Varian/David Egan)
Comes here on the back of two wins, but does look to be one of the outsiders here. The form of her last race has worked out fairly well, with the runner-up (Miss Roberts) and the sixth (Wichahpi) winning since, but that form is still no way near the level of some of her rivals. In the last two years Roger Varian has sent three runners to this race – between the three of them they only beat one rival home, and I think it could be a similar story again this year.
Big-Race Verdict
I’m struggling to see any of these beating SHUWARI, who I think will win here before going for the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile next month. She has the best form on offer and isn’t ground dependent, having won on good to firm and soft so far. Of the rest, I do think Ylang Ylang has the potential to be the biggest danger to the selection, providing she is back to her best. I’m willing to forgive her last run and hope that she gets back to the form she had shown previously. I’m still confident that Shuwari will prove too strong even if Ylang Ylang does return to form though, and I wouldn’t put anyone off the Shuwari/Ylang Ylang straight forecast.
SELECTION: SHUWARI (win – 2/1 generally) + YLANG YLANG (E/W – 9/2 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 11:55am Wednesday 27th September*
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