The new Jumps season is really starting to hit top gear now, with the return of Cheltenham this weekend. However before that we have a really decent card at Carlisle on Thursday, including this Novice Chase that has some nice entries at this stage, and is a race previously won by some very nice types.
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, picking out some interesting trends for the race, identifying the key runners and lively outsiders to look out for, before giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Previous Winners
2021 – HARDY DU SEUIL (100/30) Jamie Snowden/Gavin Sheehan
2022 – SO SCOTTISH (8/15F) Emmet Mullins/Richie Mclernon
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Alaphilippe
(Fergal O’Brien/Liam Harrison)
Fergal O’Brien is really starting to kick one with each passing season, with plenty of decent prospects for the season ahead as the yard look to mix it up with the big boys in the UK Jumps racing scene. Their runner here is the second highest rated in the field, just 1lb off Giovinco.
A winner and multiple places in Point-to-points a few years back, this horses future was always going to lie over the larger obstacles. A winner on his sole bumper run, he then went on to run 7 times over hurdles and win on three occasions, including the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock in February 2021 over 3-miles. He was last seen in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at the Festival last year, where he came a very decent 2nd, only beaten a neck behind Third Wind. That was 580+ days ago, which is the real concern heading into this race, will he be fit enough and ready to go after being off the track for a season and a half.
The fact connections are persisting with him however suggests there is a spark there, and although he is yet to run over fences under rules, he does have point-to-point form in the locker which will set him in good stead here. His best previous form has come over the 3-mile trip, so this step down to 2m4f might be a concern, but you do feel this is a real pipe opener for the season ahead as they assess where Alaphilippe is at.
2. Curley Finger
(Rebecca Menzies/Ross Chapman)
Rebecca Menzies is another trainer who is starting to kick on with each passing season, as she is really starting to become a force up north as they look to land a few big prizes this season. Her runner here is a little way off a few of these on his hurdle mark, and the hurdle form does look to be a little thin compared to some of these, with just two wins in 10 career runs. The best victory was a 3-mile class 2 victory at Musselburgh last March. The 2m4f trip could suit better than most here, as he was a winner at Hexham last May over this distance, but the Musselburgh effort did come over further, so it is hard to gauge.
Once trained by Gordon Elliott, he had two runs for previous connections before heading over to the UK. I think this is a classy contest, so this horse could find it a little tricky, however you never know with horses running over fences for the very first time.
3. Giovinco
(Lucinda Russell/Stephen Mulqueen)
Lucinda Russell’s yard has some nice types heading into the season, as well as a few stable stars from last season to go to war with this term. Her runner here Giovinco has a fair few eyes on him as he makes his chase debut on Thursday, and it is clear to see why.
He ran in a couple of point-to-points where the form figures read 5F1, with the win done in nice fashion, the horses in 2nd and 3rd have since been purchased by big owners and sent to Gordon Elliott. It’s clear to see he was purchased with chasing in mind, but he done very well as a hurdler last term, winning all of his three runs over the smaller obstacles. With a win at Ayr by 11 lengths, then Carlisle by 9 lengths and by far his best effort in the Listed British EBF BetVictor Gold Castle ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle at Perth, where he landed the prize by 12 lengths. That was his last run over hurdles and was the performance that really caught the eye for many eagle eyed racing fans.
It will be interesting to see how he get’s on here, and with Lucinda’s Apple Away initially entered into this race also, who will go elsewhere this weekend, It looks as if connections want to see Giovinco win on Thursday to make it the perfect Chase debut.
4. Good Risk At All
(Sam Thomas/Charlie Deutsch)
There is no better sight than seeing Charlie Deutsch ping his horses over fences, I really do think he is one of the best current riders over the larger obstacles, with sort of an older riding style that seems to be very effective for him. Sam Thomas had a very good start to the season at Chepstow the other weekend, with the yard sending three runners to the Welsh track, with all three of them winning. Meaning the yard currently have a 100% win strike rate for the last 14 days (No runners since Chepstow) In the last five seasons, Sam has only sent two runners to Carlisle, with one of them winning (which was this horse in a class 2 Hurdle contest last season). So the fact he sends Good Risk at All all the way to Carlisle for his chase debut might speak for something.
Rated 139 over Hurdles, he is not to far off the main runners in this field, and another thing that stands out is the fact he runs at the 2-mile to 2m4f trip, where as a few of these will prefer it to be further. He had the three runs in Bumpers, where he ran out the winner on two occasions, as well as nine Hurdle runs, which includes two wins at Ascot and Carlisle. He is the older horse in the field, with a little more experience than a few of these, and with previous wins at this sort of trip he could be the safest option to side with.
5. Hometown Boy
(Stuart Edmunds/Ciaran Gethings)
The Stuart Edmunds horse is in our very own Dave Young’s (@CheltmentalFB) 10 to follow for the season ahead, and Dave thinks this horse will win a big pot this season. With regards to his chase debut on Thursday, he will have to overcome a 929 day break, which is an extraordinary amount of time to have off the track. But, the fact connections have been persistent with him, suggests there is a spark and he is showing enough at home to run over fences this season.
A bit like Good Risk At All, the Stuart Edmunds horse does have some decent Hurdle form over this trip, when winning at Kempton in a class 3 contest, and then by far his career best came at Aintree next time out. That was his first time at the trip of 3-miles, and he was well fancied on the day. Which he duly obliged the market support by winning the Grade 3 contest in awesome fashion, staying on brilliant to pull clear by 6 lengths. That was a good performance, and he did win his only point-to-point start back in March 2019, so jumping fences will not be completely alien to him heading into this on Thursday.
It would be great to see persistence pay off for connections and have Hometown Boy run well here, before hopefully having a productive season for connections, and of course for Dave Young’s 10 to follow!
6. Swallows Song
(Iain Jardine/Craig Nichol)
Iain Jardine’s horse is the lowest rated in the field by a fair amount, and although these colours do well with their early season types, I can’t really see this horse landing a blow against some of these on his chase debut.
His only win has come in a bumper, which was on racecourse debut back in November 2022, he has since placed on five different occasions in just six career runs. Although running very consistently last season and lightly raced, I do feel this horse wants it a big further than this and will be up against it om his first attempt over the larger obstacles.
It would come as a little surprise should he win this on Thursday.
7. Shighness
(Micky Hammond/Brian Hughes)
Whatever horse Brian Hughes rides up north has to be taken quite seriously, and Micky Hammonds Shighness is one of the more experienced runners in the field with 13 runs to her name so far. She is the only mare in the field, therefore she gets a little weight off the boys, but that might not be enough for her to win on chase debut come Thursday. She lines up against some nice chasing types, and although a three time winner over Hurdles previously, she lacks the point-to-point experience that some of these have. She has also been campaigned at a slightly further trip than this over hurdles, so she might need a little more of a stamina test.
She does get weight off the boys however, but does need to improve a little to land a race of this nature on her first run over the larger obstacles.
Big-Race Verdict
I think Good Risk At All could be a nice chaser for the season ahead, and Sam Thomas has his horses going very well at the moment with three winners in just three runners at Chepstow the other weekend. No better jockey to guide him around on chase debut also, at a venue that he won at last season. However I also think Giovinco could be a real weapon over the larger obstacles. The Lucinda Russell runner is the highest rated as a hurdler in the field, and he arrives here with a few eyes firmly on him, with quite a few expecting him to be a real nice chaser in the making. He has valuable point-to-point experience, and the horses who were behind him that day have since been claimed by some big owners, both also trained by Gordon Elliott over in Ireland. After the unfortunate loss of Snake Roll last week, The yard deserve a nice chase debut winner on Thursday, before they kick on with Giovinco as the season progresses. I think he is a very exciting recruit to the chasing sphere.
SELECTION: GIOVINCO (win – 11/10 generally)
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Tue 17 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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