One of the big handicaps of the season, the Scottish Grand National comes into focus this weekend. A great way to train those powers of perception for the Aintree National a week later, we’ve looked into the trends of recent winners, alongside Bet365‘s new customer offer of Bet £10 Get £50 In Free Bets.
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Form
If you take Vicente out of the last decade’s roll of honour, seven of the last eight Scottish Grand National winners have been placed on their previous start. As such, while you get some unexposed types succeeding in the race, it won’t be because their marks have been overly protected. Moreover, two of the last three winners had won on their previous start, with Might Thunder beaten less than a length in the Midlands National prior to winning here.
Main Positive: Top 2 on previous start
Other Positives: Placed on previous start
Weight/Rating
Only one winner has carried more than 11st 3lb to victory in this race since 2011. That was Vicente during his second success in 2017, though curiously he was off exactly the same mark. As such, no horse has won off a greater rating than 146, but Hill Sixteen, the top weight here, is comfortably the lowest-rated top-weight in recent renewals from a rating of 147. Instead, it is probably worth looking at the other end of the spectrum: no horse has won off a mark below 134, so while this is a less condensed handicap and may favour those more lowly rated than normal, any horse rated between 134 and 146 is preferred.
Main Positive: Rating between 134-146
Negative: Rating below 134
Negative: Weight above 11st 3lb
Age/Experience
There is no distinct correlation in terms of age, with winners ranged between seven and 11 in the last decade, spread fairly evenly too. Intriguingly there are only two horses not within that age bracket in this field: Vintage Clouds (aged 12) and market leader Kitty’s Light (6). It is more interesting to look at the experience levels of the winners. Six of the last ten were novices, all of whom had had eight runs over fences or fewer. Interspersed are chasers with greater experience, so it is not necessarily a negative to have run many more times.
Positive: fewer than eight runs over fences
Main Negative: Aged six or below, or 12 or above
Course
Only three of the past ten winners had a course victory over fences at Ayr and two of those were multiple winners of this race in Vicente and Merigo. Otherwise, seven of the ten were coming to Ayr’s chase course blind; Mighty Thunder and Vicente, before his first win, had only run over hurdles here. Experience at the track is certainly no obstacle…though it would have been a big plus for any former winners of the race had they shown up this year.
Positive: Making first chase start at Ayr
Run Style
There is one very significant trend that has occurred in the last five years: every winner has been described as “held up” during the race. Only Beshabar in 2011 ran from the front and even he didn’t get to that position until after the seventh fence. As such, do not be upset if your horse is towards the back early.
Main Positive: horses held up on their previous start
Main Negative: horses who went from the front on their previous start
Price
It is difficult to deem price a factor, as though there has been only one favourite successful, he started at 9/1, while SPs vary from 15/2 to 40/1.
Verdict
There are few standouts who fit numerate trends in this race. The one with the most positives is THE WOLF. He comes into this after a good second in the Edinburgh National, and while 11st 4lb is a tiny bit higher than ideal, adjustments can be made given this is a more compact handicap than in other recent renewals. His rating is right in the sweet spot for winners of this race and his hold up style, evident in all of his last five chase starts, is ideal given the last five winners have all performed in a similar fashion.
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